A Premier League season that started out with hopes of challenging for a Champions League place again has been dogged by inconsistency for Newcastle Untied, and the Magpies are currently sitting eight points adrift of Chelsea in 5th. That feels like an insurmountable chasm to bridge with twelve games remaining.
It is important for the profile and trajectory of the club that Newcastle secure some form of European football next season. While the Europa League and Conference League have nowhere near the prestige or financial rewards of the Champions League, Newcastle would enter both of those competitions among the favourites to win, and participation would assist in efforts to acclimatise to playing midweek football.
Both of those competitions would also provide more of an opportunity to rotate the squad than the Champions League allows, keeping players fresher for longer and hopefully not negatively impacting the Premier League form in the same way that both recent Champions League campaigns have.
As things stand, the top 5 finishers in the Premier League will qualify for next season’s Champions League. 6th spot will go to the Europa League and, by virtue of top 6 clubs contesting the Carabao Cup final, 7th will be a Conference League place. Another Europa League place goes to the FA Cup winners, and if that club also finishes in the top 6, the Conference League spot will drop to 8th in the Premier League.
Newcastle missed out on European football the last time they finished 7th in 2023/24, as a poor Manchester United upset their city rivals in the FA Cup final and 6th placed Chelsea dropped into (and went on to win) the Conference League. That was painful at the time but fewer demands on Newcastle’s squad unquestionably contributed to a strong overall showing and the 5th placed finish last season.
Barring an extraordinary run of form and sustained improvement on the road, Newcastle can forget about a top 6 finish this season, so they can simplify their objective by focussing on winning the mini league from 7th position down to 14th. Brentford currently top that league with 40 points, Brighton are bottom on 31 points, and Newcastle sit in the middle on 36.
It’s humbling to be competing with smaller clubs like Fulham, Everton and Sunderland after recent battles with Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea, but this is where the season is sitting now. It is necessary to redraw expectations.
The average points required to finish in 7th place across the last ten Premier League seasons has been 57, with the highest required being 62 in 2020/21. To hit 57, Newcastle would need to pick up 21 more points at a rate of 1.75 points per game across the last twelve games (Current points per game is 1.38, so improvement is clearly needed).
To break it down into the simplest terms, the Magpies must win seven of their remaining games (or win six and pick up a handful of draws).
If we now view this season as a twelve-game mini league, the fixtures make for interesting observation.
Due to the poor form on the road, there has been a focus on the difficult remaining away games at Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal. Any points from those games would be regarded as a bonus.
That leaves nine matches for Newcastle to target for their seven victories. Four of the remaining home games are against direct ‘rivals’ for a top 7 spot: Everton, Sunderland, Brighton and Bournemouth. It will be critical to win these games. Manchester United and West Ham are the other visitors to St James’ Park, and Newcastle will fancy themselves for maximum points.
There is a trip to another rival, Crystal Palace in April, and the penultimate away game is at a relegation threatened Nottingham Forest. Newcastle’s last game of the season away at Fulham could be a winner takes all shootout for a European place.
Compared with their immediate top 7 competitors, Newcastle have the most opportunity to influence the outcome by taking points in games between rival clubs. 50% of their remaining games are against rivals (6/12) with four of those being at St James’ Park. Only Brentford equal that home tally against rival clubs, while Sunderland, Brighton and Everton all have three away games at rivals.
Less positively, Newcastle’s four games remaining against current top 6 clubs is the most of any rival other than Everton (five), and their two games left against current bottom 6 clubs is the fewest of any top 7 rival (Brighton play five matches against current bottom 6 clubs). This makes it even more critical that Newcastle win the games against their immediate rivals.
The Magpies saw first-hand recently what a difficult opponent Brentford can be. They have a 4-point head start on Newcastle and are well placed to push on with four home games against top 7 rivals, and four matches against current bottom 6 clubs.
Of course, Newcastle have additional games as they continue their FA Cup and Champions League campaigns. This could push an already stretched squad closer to breaking point, or it could instil more confidence and momentum in a team that has been bereft of both for swathes of the season. The 6-1 thrashing of Qarabag can certainly do the mood in the squad no harm, but Chelsea or Barcelona will not be so accommodating.
It may not be the glamour we hoped for when the season started, but finishing above Brentford will likely mean European qualification for next season, and that would have to be regarded as a good outcome after all that has happened in the last nine months. If Howe can focus his players’ minds on this it might help to crystalise the objectives across the remainder of the season.
HWTL!
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