A blockbuster week of college basketball is getting off to a must-see start on Monday night with a battle between Houston and Iowa State. The Big 12 showdown brings both immediate and longterm ramifications for the No. 1 seed line in the NCAA Tournament, which begins one month from Tuesday.
Houston enters as the fourth No. 1 seed in the CBS Sports Bracketology model and can validate that with a statement road win inside one of college basketball’s most hostile environments. A win would be the most impressive victories of the season for the Cougars, who lag slightly behind UConn in resume-based metrics.
The Huskies are right on Houston’s heels for the fourth No. 1 overall seed with victories over high-caliber opponents like Illinois, Kansas and Florida on a rock-solid resume. The Cougars have beaten quality foes like Arkansas and Texas Tech, and they won at BYU before the Cougars lost Richie Saunders for the season.
But this would be different. Winning at Iowa State would be worth a whopping 0.90 points in WAB (Wins Above Bubble), which is a vital measure of what a team has actually accomplished. That would be Houston’s most valuable win of the year and a sign that the Cougars are true national title contenders.
Here is a look at how things stand along the top two seed lines entering the week.
Bracketology top seeds
Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.
Conference breakdown
The SEC continues to lead the way with 11 total bids in the CBS Sports Bracketology model. However, the league does not have a No. 1 seed or a No. 2 seed, and a handful of SEC squads are living life on the bubble. Missouri and Georgia are among the “Last Four In,” while Texas A&M is on a four-game losing streak and has slipped to a No. 10 seed.
Auburn is also on a four-game losing streak and is down to a No. 9 seed. A four-game winning streak has helped insulate Texas, but the Longhorns are only a No. 9 seed. With three weeks left in the regular season, the SEC’s bubble teams will need to thread the needle if the conference is going to get 11 teams into the Big Dance. Here is the rundown of the current tally from each multi-bid league.
SEC: 11
Big Ten: 10
Big 12: 8
ACC: 8
Big East: 3
Mountain West: 2
WCC: 2
Rematch rules
Amid conference consolidation and the proliferation of nonconference matchups between high-major schools, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee faces challenges when it comes to avoiding regular-season rematches. The 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket featured three potential second-round games between conference teams, although none of them came to fruition.
The committee will still seek to minimize conference meetings and nonconference rematches, and our model is coded to do the same. However, NCAA bracketing principles permit games between conference teams in the second round, so long as the teams in question played each other just once before the NCAA Tournament. For conference teams that met twice prior to the NCAA Tournament, principles state they should not meet prior to the Sweet 16. If the teams played three times, NCAA bracketing principles state they should not play before the Elite Eight.
With regard to rematches of nonconference games, NCAA bracketing principles state that they should be avoided “in the First Four and first round.” The committee will also “attempt to avoid” nonconference rematches in the second round. But the committee has historically prioritized keeping teams on their natural seed line over changing their seed line for the sake of avoiding a rematch.
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