No. 16 Texas Tech roared back to stun No. 1 Arizona 78-75 in overtime on Saturday in a Big 12 thriller with wide-ranging ramifications. The loss caps an 0-2 week for the Wildcats, who were the last unbeaten high-major team until Monday night’s loss at Kansas.
Arizona led 64-57 with just over three minutes left in regulation before going cold down the stretch while playing shorthanded. Star freshman forward Koa Peat did not play in the second half due to a lower body injury, effectively leaving Arizona with a six-man rotation.
The Wildcats (23-2, 10-2 Big 12) were also without freshman forward Dwayne Aristode due to illness. Texas Tech (19-6, 9-3 Big 12) is not a deep team, either, but the Red Raiders have grown accustomed to playing long minutes this season, and they rose to the occasion late.
JT Toppin led the way with 31 points and 13 rebounds in 44 minutes for the Red Raiders and scored eight in the overtime period. His offensive rebound with six seconds left also helped cement the outcome.
Christian Anderson added 19 points and eight assists. He played all 45 minutes.
The outcome solidifies the chances that No. 2 Michigan jumps to No. 1 in the AP Top 25 poll on Monday. It also means No. 3 Houston (23-2, 11-1 Big 12) is now alone atop the Big 12 standings.
Texas Tech has now defeated three of the No. 1 seeds in CBS Sports Bracketology, as the Red Raiders also own wins over Duke and Houston.
Why Arizona will remain a No. 1 seed
It’s just Arizona’s second loss, and it’s not a bad loss. Therefore, the Wildcats are expected to remain on the No. 1 seed line in the CBS Sports Bracketology model.
However, this will create some separation between Michigan and Arizona for the time being. The model already favored Michigan as the No. 1 overall seed due to its No. 1 ranking in WAB (Wins Above Bubble) and No. 1 ranking at KenPom. But it was harder to draw a distinction between the teams when they both had just one loss. The call for No. 1 overall is certainly more obvious now.
What about Texas Tech?
Texas Tech is projected by the CBS Sports Bracketology model to stay a No. 4 seed but to move up within the No. 4 seed hierarchy. Over the long run, a metric-moving result like beating the nation’s No. 1 team on the road will help tremendously in making a push back toward the No. 3 line practical for the Red Raiders, who reached the Elite Eight as a No. 3 seed last season.
Beating the NET’s No. 2 team on the road is worth a whopping 0.93 in WAB, which could result in a 3-4 spot jump for the Red Raiders, who entered the day at No. 15 in the important resume metric. Texas Tech’s six losses are all of the Quad 1 variety, and it now has six Quad 1 wins to match them.
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