Spring is supposed to be the time of maximum optimism in baseball. Every team still theoretically has a chance to win a title right now; every player still theoretically has a chance to have the best season of their career. Everyone is supposed to be in the “best shape of my life,” everyone is working on new pitches or refining their skill set to be the best version of themselves.
And that optimism tends to last about as long as it takes for players to get through their entrance physicals and for their managers to start talking to the media. And then reality sets in and we get the inevitable bad news. Tuesday saw the first batch of pitchers and catchers reporting to training camp, and with it, our first batch of news that will impact the Fantasy Baseball landscape this draft season.
Here’s the biggest news you need to know from around the league Tuesday, starting with one significant injury to a top-20 projected SP:
Spencer Schwellenbach to start the season on the 60-day IL
Schwellenbach seems to have pushed his elbow to its limit in 2025, pushing his velocity ever higher in pursuit of becoming an ace. And he sure looked like one when he was on the mound. But now it looks like we won’t see him back on the mound for at least the first few months of the 2026 season – and potentially a lot longer than that:
Schwellenbach dealt with a fractured elbow last season as he pushed is velocity ever higher following his breakout 2024 campaign, and he apparently began feeling discomfort in his right elbow a few weeks ago while preparing for the season. That has manifested in inflammation in his elbow, and while his UCL is not believed to be damaged as a result, the fact that we are already, in early February, talking about him going on the 60-day IL to open the season suggests this is a serious concern.
Because, even in a best-case scenario right now, you’re talking about three and a half months before Schwellenbach is able to return to action, assuming he misses the minimum time after going on the IL. Now, perhaps in a best-case scenario, he could still throw roughly two-thirds of a season; for a guy with a 3.23 ERA and 1.01 career WHIP in the majors, two-thirds of a season would still be plenty valuable.
But I don’t think it makes sense to think in terms of best-case scenarios here, given Schwellenbach’s history. Schwellenbach was used as a shortstop and a reliever during his college career, only transitioning to a full-time starting role after being drafted. But, it’s worth noting that came after he had Tommy John surgery shortly after signing with the Braves. He came back from the injury in 2023, forced his way all the way to the majors in 2024, and tossed nearly 180 excellent innings along the way. In 2025, he made it through 17 starts and 110.2 innings before breaking down, and now he’s entering 2026 with another elbow issue.
Which is to say, we’ve seen exactly one season from Schwellenbach where he has shown he can handle the rigors of being a starting pitcher. That doesn’t mean he can’t be one moving forward, but I do think it means we should err on the side of pessimism as he works his way back, especially when we’re dealing with as much uncertainty as we are regarding a potential timetable.
Maybe Schwellenbach comes back in late May and dominates the rest of the way. That might be on the table. But that seems like the least likely outcome, and there would obviously still be significant injury risk to account for here even if it did happen.
But it feels a lot more likely that we’re starting at a lost season for Schwellenbach. He suffered a fractured elbow while pitching last season, presumably spent the offseason rehabbing, and then before he’s even asked to throw a pitch in a competitive setting, he already suffered a setback? Or, potentially, a brand new injury? One that will cost him at least the first two months of the season, and may ultimately require surgery? It doesn’t seem like a situation you want to bet on working out for you, unfortunately.
Which is to say, I’m pretty much out on Schwellenbach entirely in drafts. In leagues with a lot of IL spots, maybe you could justify a very late-round pick to stash Schwellenbach, but I’m moving him outside of the top-100 in my pitcher rankings and outside of the top-300 in the overall after this, taking him firmly off the board in 12-team leagues.
I hope my pessimism is proven wrong. Schwellenbach looked like one of the best pitchers in the game last season, and the Braves rotation really needs him to be a contributor if they want to have any chance of returning to contention. But I just don’t see enough reason to be optimistic about Schwellenbach at this point.
Francisco Lindor might need surgery
This one is less severe, with Mets president David Stearns keeping an Opening Day return on the table even if Lindor does end up needing surgery to repair a stress fracture in the hamate bone in his left hand:
But I do think there needs to be at least a minor downgrade for Lindor, even if that Opening Day timeline comes to fruition. Now, to be clear, it’s not necessarily because this specific injury is likely to be a huge issue for Lindor. Hamate bone injuries are less concerning than something like a thumb or wrist fracture. They tend to be more straightforward procedures and recovery processes, and most players tend to return from a hamate bone procedure at more or less the same level as before.
On its own, this would be mildly concerning, but not much more than that. But this comes on the heels of Lindor undergoing surgery earlier in the offseason to remove bone spurs in his elbow. That procedure also isn’t terribly concerning on its own merits, but we’re now looking at a 32-year-old potentially coming off two separate offseason surgeries, the most recent of which would almost certainly cost him most of Spring Training as he recovers.
Hamate bone surgery typically costs 6-8 weeks, and even the lower end of that timetable would put Lindor out of action through the end of spring games. Maybe he’ll be able to do enough side work to get up to speed quickly enough to be ready for Opening Day, as Stearns suggests, but that is by no means guaranteed.
And there’s also no guarantee there won’t be any kind of lingering issues as a result. Even if the hamate bone surgery and elbow surgeries don’t become lingering issues for Lindor, missing most or all of Spring Training always injects added risk into a player’s profile. Lindor has mostly avoided any obvious signs of aging, but it might be asking too much for him to keep holding steady coming off this kind of offseason.
Which is not to say we need to just remove Lindor from our draft boards. But it definitely takes him out of first-round consideration for me. For now, I’m dropping Lindor to the 2-3 round turn. I’m keeping him ahead of Zach Neto and Mookie Betts at that price range for now, but it wouldn’t take much for me to lower Lindor more to the third or fourth round range if the timetable starts to put Opening Day at risk. This is one to watch in the coming days.
Anthony Santander will have shoulder surgery; Shane Bieber will be slow-played in spring
The Bieber detail isn’t really anything new – he dealt with forearm fatigue during the postseason and as far back as December the Blue Jays were talking about the possibility of limiting him this spring. But this confirms it, and while he may still end up being ready for Opening Day, this is a pretty big red flag for a guy who had a pretty rocky rehab process after Tommy John surgery and didn’t even make it through 60 innings last season without this issue. Bieber is still worth a late-round dart throw, but I don’t think you can view him as much more than that.
Santander was even cheaper prior to this news, but this now takes him entirely out of the draftable discussion. He is going to have surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder, the issue that largely derailed his 2025 season. He’ll be out 5-6 months, so a first-half return seems unlikely here. And, whenever he does come back, Santander will be dealing with the aftereffects of that shoulder surgery, so expectations should be very low.
It’s a bummer, because he was such a reliable source of power prior to this injury and looked like he might be a nice late-round flier as a bounce-back candidate. All that’s off the table now.
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