How can the Bucks keep Giannis Antetokounmpo long term? Five-step plan for Milwaukee

MILWAUKEE — Giannis Antetokounmpo is still a member of the Milwaukee Bucks, and will be until at least the summer. Despite a steady stream of rumors in recent days and weeks, no offer materialized that convinced the Bucks to trade the most important player in franchise history, and he himself never asked out. 

“Legends don’t chase. They attract,” Antetokounmpo wrote on social media shortly after Thursday’s trade deadline passed. He attached a clip of the iconic scene from Wolf of Wall Street, when Jordan Belfort, played by Leonardo DiCaprio, tells his employees, “I’m not f—ing leaving. The show goes on. This is my home, they’re gonna need a f—ing wrecking ball to take me out of here. They’re gonna need to send in the National Guard or a f—ing SWAT team, cause I ain’t going nowhere.” 

Any team looking to get Antetokounmpo out of Milwaukee this summer is going to need a wrecking ball of an offer, and even that may not be enough. Antetokounmpo does not want to leave Milwaukee, as he made clear earlier this week in heartfelt interviews with both the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and The Athletic. 

“If you ask me what do I really want, deep down in my heart? I want to be a Milwaukee Buck until a retire and win a championship here. End of sentence,” Antetokounmpo told the Journal. 

At the same time, he’s well aware that winning another title in Milwaukee may not be possible in the next few years. And as he approaches his mid-30s, he’s torn between remaining loyal to the city and organization that helped him grow into the man and player he’s become, and chasing another ring while he’s still at the top of his game. 

“It’s always (about) competing, man,” Antetokounmpo told The Athletic. “I feel like I’m 31 years old. … There’s fewer chances left in front of me that I will be able to compete and be there, play and feel like the way I felt like a couple years ago.

“I just want to go back to that as soon as I can, because I feel like we’re running out of chances, running out of time. Like, how long would your prime be? If I’m lucky, let’s say 36, 37. If I take the LeBron James route, maybe 41, but let’s be realistic here. … Father Time is undefeated.”

Antetokounmpo and the Bucks’ time together may be running out, but it’s not over yet. As long as he remains on the roster, there’s a chance the team could convince him to stay for next season, and possibly even sign an extension, which he’ll be eligible for in October. 

“You’re saying that if they can convince me to stay within the team, and the next year that we can compete? Oh yeah, 1,000 percent,” Antetokounmpo told The Athletic, when asked if he would commit to another season with the Bucks. “One million percent.”

What would it take for the Bucks to convince Antetokounmpo to stick around? Let’s lay out the steps on that narrow path. 

1. Sit Antetokounmpo the rest of the season

Antetokounmpo is currently sidelined with a right soleus (calf muscle) strain and does not have an official timeline for his return. He was injured during the Bucks’ loss to the Denver Nuggets on Jan. 23, and gave himself a 4-6 week timeline during his postgame press conference. That would keep him out until at least after the All-Star break. 

Following a dramatic overtime victory over the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday, the Bucks are 2-3 since he went down, and 5-14 overall without him this season. Now 20-29, they are in 12th place in the Eastern Conference — 2½ games behind the Charlotte Hornets for the final Play-In Tournament spot and eight games behind the Philadelphia 76ers for the No. 6 seed and an automatic playoff berth. 

When the Bucks traded for Jrue Holiday back in 2020, they gave the Pelicans a 2026 first-round pick swap as part of that trade. So while the Bucks don’t control their own pick this year, they will have a first-round selection — the less favorable of their pick and the Pelicans’ pick. The 13-40 Pelicans have the second-worst record in the league, so it’s unlikely that a swap will be necessary, though that ultimately depends on what happens in the lottery. 

Tanking the rest of the season to give themselves the best possible lottery odds would be far more beneficial for the future of the franchise than having Antetokounmpo return for a meaningless Play-In push. 

Based on the back end of his self-diagnosed timeline, Antetokounmpo may not be ready to go until early March. At that point, there would be a little more than a month remaining in the season, and the Bucks will likely be even further back from the Play-In picture.

Aside from pride, there’s no reason for Antetokounmpo to play again this season. The only potential outcomes are negative: hurting the Bucks’ lottery odds and/or picking up another injury. 

The Athletic reported Thursday that Antetokounmpo plans to play once he’s fully recovered from his injury, but that doesn’t mean he should. We’ll see what happens come March, especially if the Bucks are nowhere near the Play-In race by that point. 

2. Get some lottery luck

The Bucks are currently tied with the Memphis Grizzlies for the eighth-worst record in the league. They are two games ahead of the Dallas Mavericks for the seventh-worst record and 5½ games up on the Utah Jazz for the sixth-worst record. On the flip side, they’re only 2½ games behind the Hornets for a Play-In spot and the 13th-worst record in the league. 

Antetokounmpo’s injury is likely going to prevent them from climbing too high in the standings, but even if he sits out the rest of the season, they have almost no chance of “catching” the Jazz or any of the five worst teams, who are about to embark on one of the most flagrant tanking races we’ve seen in some time. 

Let’s say the Bucks finish with the eighth-worst record, which seems like a reasonable outcome. Here are the lottery odds from that slot:

• No. 1 pick: 6%
• No. 2 pick: 6.3%
• No. 3 pick: 6.7%
• No. 4 pick: 7.2%
• No. 5 pick: N/A
• No. 6 pick: N/A
• No. 7 pick: N/A
• No. 8 pick: 34.5%
• No. 9 pick: 32.1%
• No. 10 pick: 6.7%
• No. 11 pick: 0.4%
• No. 12 pick: > 0.0%
• No. 13 pick: N/A
• No. 14 pick: N/A

Based on the current odds, the Bucks have a 26.2% chance of their pick winding up in the top-four in the lottery. 

Now, because the Bucks owe the Pelicans a swap (which is now owned by the Atlanta Hawks), that does not mean they have a 26.2% chance of a top-four pick. Their selection will ultimately be the least favorable of the their pick and the Pelicans’ pick. But, if the Pelicans stay put and finish with the second-worst record in the league, that pick would have a 52.1% chance of being in the top-four and be guaranteed to be in the top-six. 

The Bucks cannot wind up with the No. 1 pick in the draft, but there’s a real possibility they come away with a top-four selection in what is projected to be an all-time draft. At the very least, the Bucks will have a greater than 90% chance to pick in the top-10 based on the current standings. 

If the Bucks were to get lucky and wind up with a top-four pick, that would completely change the course of their franchise and boost their chances of keeping Antetokounmpo around. 

They would be able to draft one of Kansas guard Darryn Peterson, BYU swingman AJ Dybantsa, Duke forward Cameron Boozer or UNC forward Caleb Wilson, all of whom look like future stars, and possibly sell Antetokounmpo on building alongside them. Or, if they wanted to trade the pick to acquire win-now player(s) on Antetokounmpo’s timeline, they would be able to command a significant return. 

3. Make a coaching change?

The Bucks were 30-13 when they fired Adrian Griffin in the middle of his first season in January 2024. While that was the correct decision given the locker room dysfunction that was playing out in public and behind the scenes, it makes it difficult to understand why Doc Rivers has not come under the same pressure despite an 85-82 record during his time in charge. 

Rivers, to be fair, has dealt with significant obstacles to success. Khris Middleton, Damian Lillard and Antetokounmpo all dealt with major injuries during his time in charge, and the Bucks were not healthy during their two first-round exits under his leadership. He also arrived just as the bill came due for the Bucks previous spending. 

If you ask the majority of Bucks fans, they would part ways with Rivers in a heartbeat, and it’s fair to wonder what the team would look like with a younger, more modern coach — especially in light of the jobs that Joe Mazzulla, Jordan Ott, Jordi Fernández and Will Hardy are doing. 

It’s certainly possible the Bucks will look to make a change this offseason ahead of the final year of Rivers’ deal. Ultimately, though, that decision may come down to what Antetokounmpo wants. 

4. Reshuffle the roster

The Bucks’ current roster is not good enough to compete for a championship, which Antetokounmpo is obsessed with. 

“The moment you feel it, you have that Larry O’Brien dust on you. That’s all you chase,” Antetokounmpo told The Athletic. “And if you don’t chase it, that means you don’t want to be all that great.” 

Is there a realistic way to flip the roster this summer and build a contender? Or at least a competitive team with room to grow? Let’s make a few notes:

• The Bucks will likely have a top-10 pick in the 2026 draft
• The Bucks will be able to trade their 2031 and 2033 first-round picks this summer
• The Bucks will have the mid-level exception ($15.1 million) and bi-annual exception ($5.5 million) available to use on free agents
• The Bucks have 11 players either under contract or with player options for next season

Keepers

Almost certainly going to pick up their player option

Potential opt-out

Potential trade candidates

Now let’s look at some best-case scenario (within reason) moves:

1. Draft AJ Dybantsa and keep him
Again, this would require some exceptional lottery luck, but it’s not impossible. (Plus, we’re laying out an ideal path here.) The 6-foot-9 Dybantsa would immediately slot in on the wing and give the Bucks a dynamite scorer who could contribute right away and would potentially grown into an All-Star level player while Antetokounmpo was still at the back-end of his prime. 

2. Trade Kuzma and salary filler for Ja Morant
The Bucks and Grizzlies engaged in trade talks surrounding Morant ahead of the deadline, but no deal got done. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst reported Friday that Morant has “negative” value around the league, and rival teams would only take him if the Grizzlies attached draft assets. 

If the Grizzlies are desperate to move Morant this summer, it’s possible we could see a deal similar to the one that sent Trae Young from the Atlanta Hawks to the Washington Wizards. All the Wizards gave up for Young was CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert. 

A similar Bucks-Grizzlies trade would have to start with Kyle Kuzma, and then include other salary filler to make the money work. There are obvious risks with acquiring Morant, who has only played 79 games in the last three seasons and dealt with off-court issues, but at that price it would be hard for the Bucks to say no. 

The potential upside with Morant is higher than anything else the Bucks could pull off this summer. 

3. Trade Portis, Turner and a first-round pick(s) for Porter
Morant alone may not be enough to keep Antetokounmpo around, so here’s another trade the Bucks might be able to make happen: Bobby Portis, Myles Turner and draft capital to the Nets for Michael Porter Jr. 

The biggest stumbling block here for the Bucks is that the Nets might require both of their 2031 and 2033 picks in order to take on Portis and Turner’s money. Giving up both of those selections, when Antetokounmpo will be 36 and 38, respectively, would be very risky, but the Bucks have been willing to take risks before to keep Antetokounmpo around, and will have to do so again. 

Porter Jr. also has a poor injury history, but he’s largely been healthy in recent years and is in the midst of a breakout campaign for the Nets: 25.1 points, 7.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game, while shooting 38.7% on 9.5 3-point attempts. He would give the Bucks another serious offensive threat. 

4. Sign Ellis, Wade and Middleton
In a world where the Bucks trade for Morant and Porter as the stars to keep Antetokounmpo happy, they’re going to need someone to do the dirty work. 

Enter Keon Ellis and Dean Wade, both of whom will be unrestricted free agents this summer. Ellis, one of the most underrated guards in the league, and Wade are both scrappy, versatile defenders and decent spot-up shooters. They could help fill in the cracks on both sides of the ball. 

And for old times’ sake, the Bucks could give Khris Middleton a minimum contract. He doesn’t have much left in the tank, but he knows the organization and how to play with Antetokounmpo. And ultimately, if the goal is to keep Antetokounmpo happy in Milwaukee, who better to do that than his longest-tenured teammate and good friend. 

Hypothetical rotation
After all of those hypothetical moves, here is what the Bucks’ 10-man rotation would look like, with Antetokounmpo moving to center: 

• PG: Ja Morant / Ryan Rollins 
• SG: AJ Green / Keon Ellis
• SF: AJ Dybantsa / Khris Middleton
• PF: Michael Porter Jr. /  Dean Wade
• C: Giannis Antetokounmpo / Pete Nance 

Flipping the Bucks’ roster into a top-tier contender in one offseason is an impossible task given the working constraints, but this hypothetical group would be much more talented than their current team and may be enough to convince Antetokounmpo to stick around. 

5. Use the extension advantage

Antetokounmpo is signed through 2027, with a player option for the 2027-28 campaign, which means he only has one more guaranteed year on his contract. He will be in line for a massive extension as soon as this fall, and the Bucks now have a an advantage over rival teams on that front. 

As long as Antetokounmpo remains in Milwaukee, he’ll be eligible to sign a four-year, $275 million extension on Oct. 1. However, if he’s traded during the offseason, he would need to wait six months from the date of the trade to sign that same extension with his new team. 

If he was traded on July 1, for example, he would not be able to sign that extension until Jan. 1, 2027, well after the 2026-27 season begins. 

Including the knock that currently has him sidelined, Antetokounmpo has suffered four different calf injuries over the last two years, as well as other minor ailments. If he wants to sign an extension in the offseason, to protect against the possibility of a serious injury early next season, the Bucks are the only team that can give it to him. 

That alone is not going to be enough to convince Antetokounmpo to sign another extension with the Bucks, but in conjunction with a successful summer, it might be.