Patriots played one of the easiest schedules in NFL history: Why it won’t discount a Super Bowl title

“You can only beat what’s in front of you” is a popular sports phrase that will be put to the test come Super Bowl Sunday. 

The New England Patriots are aiming for an NFL-record seventh Super Bowl title on the backs of one of the greatest turnarounds in NFL history. They went from 4-13 last season to 17-3 this season (including playoffs), the largest year-over-year wins increase in NFL history (+13), surpassing the 1998-99 Rams (+12), who won the Super Bowl.

One reason they broke that record and have made it to Super Bowl LX is their absurdly easy schedule. Just how much of a factor it’s been is up for debate.

Here are the facts. The 2025 Patriots played the easiest schedule (in terms of opponent combined win percentage) by any team since the 1999 Rams. 

To clarify, that’s not just the easiest schedule by any Super Bowl team, I mean ANY team. The Patriots’ opponents were a combined 113-176 this season (.391 win percentage). It’s tied for the third easiest schedule by any team in the last 50 seasons.

Easiest strength of schedule played in last 50 seasons

Here’s how this historic schedule came to be in conjunction with how every team’s schedule breaks down with the NFL’s scheduling formula:

• Six games vs division opponents (Patriots played six games vs. the Bills, Dolphins and Jets)
• Four games vs. a division in same conference on a three-year rotating cycle (Patriots played the AFC North teams: Steelers, Ravens, Bengals and Browns)
• Four teams vs. a division in other conference on a four-year rotating cycle (Patriots played the NFC South teams: Buccaneers, Panthers, Falcons and Saints)
• Two games vs. teams in same conference based on prior year’s standings – i.e. last place teams face other last place teams (Patriots faced Titans and Raiders)
• 17th game vs opposite conference based on last year’s standings (Patriots faced the Giants)

It was a perfect storm. The Patriots got four games vs the struggling Dolphins and Jets. The other divisions they faced happened to be among the worst in football between the AFC North and NFC South. Plus, because the Patriots finished in last place in the AFC East in 2024 they got three more games vs. other last-place teams (Raiders, Giants, Titans), who all happened to be terrible again. They also played the Bengals without Joe Burrow.

There’s another viral stat making the rounds recently courtesy of Brandon Anderson (Action Network). Almost two-thirds of the Patriots games were played vs. teams who either fired or did not return their head coach. 

That is pure lunacy. Yes, it’s as crazy (and rare) as it sounds. The Patriots played 11 games vs. teams who aren’t returning their head coach, tied for the most by any team in NFL history. They tied the 1925 Frankford Yellow Jackets. So, let me get this straight … you have to go back ONE HUNDRED YEARS to find the last time a team played this many games vs fired head coaches???? To answer my own question, yes, that is correct, somehow.  

The playoff path was also easy in some respects

Perhaps then the Patriots schedule is even easier than it appears, if that’s even possible. Plus, we haven’t even gotten to the postseason yet.

The Patriots went through the Chargers, Texans and Broncos this postseason. All solid opponents. But check out the players those teams were missing:

They played the Chargers without both their starting offensive tackles, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. Slater missed the entire season to be fair. Only 4.6% of teams in the last 20 postseasons played a playoff game without both of their starting offensive tackles.

They played the Texans without Nico Collins. Only 2.5% of teams have played a playoff game since 1970 without their leading receiver. Houston’s second-leading receiver, Dalton Schultz, also left the game in the first half with a calf injury (and did not return). 

They played the Broncos without Bo Nix. Jarrett Stidham became the seventh quarterback to make his first start of the season in the playoffs. That amounts to 0.6% of playoff games since 1950 when QB starts were first tracked. 

Okay, that’s not just a stroke of injury luck. That’s very fortunate.

On the flip side, as others have brought up, the Patriots have played some tough defenses on the way to the Super Bowl. They can be the second team to beat the top-three scoring defenses in a single postseason along with the 2006 Colts. They’ve already beaten the Texans and Broncos and the Seahawks had the NFL’s top scoring defense. The Chargers had a good defense, too. 

Patriots opponents this postseason

Patriots fans have jumped on this narrative in an attempt to squash the easy schedule darts being thrown at them. Unfortunately (for their argument), this context (while somewhat meaningful) completely ignores the offenses and quarterbacks they’ve faced this postseason and the aforementioned injured players they did not have to face.

The four quarterbacks who have faced the Patriots this postseason (Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, Jarrett Stidham and Sam Darnold) entered the game with a combined five playoff wins. This matters to an extent. Let’s keep in mind that a lot of teams faced inexperienced QBs this postseason in a field without Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. 

It’s still worth bringing up, but you also can’t put a ton of stock into it since Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, Jalen Hurts and Matthew Stafford were really the only “experienced” quarterbacks in the field. 

Still, we’ve seen some people ignore this context. This was a real tweet from Robert Griffin III after the Patriots win in the AFC title game. 

Everything about this tweet is correct in regards to a quarterback facing three top-five defenses in terms of yards allowed. The first line “Drake Maye faced the toughest path to the Super Bowl in NFL Playoff History” completely disregards how poorly he’s played this postseason. I don’t think people should put “respect on your name” when you haven’t earned it yet. 

Maye has five touchdowns and five turnovers this postseason. He has the worst EPA per dropback (-0.12) in a postseason by any quarterback entering the Super Bowl since Rex Grossman in 2006. Let’s see what he does vs Seattle’s defense in the Super Bowl before putting respect on his name. 

So what does it all mean?

That’s all a lot of ammunition you can debate with your friends leading up to the Super Bowl. But, what does it all really mean? 

It’s absolutely part of the story for how the Patriots got here. I can’t run the math on how much of a factor it was. Good luck with that! 

But, if they win the Super Bowl, it will not minimize the accomplishment in the slightest. A championship is a championship. 

I mentioned earlier they played the easiest schedule by any team since the 1999 Rams. The 1999 Rams won the Super Bowl and I have never once heard anyone discredit the one Super Bowl won by the ‘Greatest Show on Turf’ because they played one of the easiest schedules of all-time. 

That’s because the focus was completely on one of the greatest underdog stories in NFL history (Kurt Warner), one of the best offenses and best turnaround seasons of all-time. 

If the Patriots win Super Bowl LX we’ll be talking about how they could have the greatest turnaround in NFL history. Or where Drake Maye ranks among the greatest seasons by a young quarterback ever. Or the job by Mike Vrabel in his first season as New England’s head coach. There will even be the obligatory Patriots’ dynasty talk and 2001 Patriots comparisons. The schedule will be a footnote.

I thought this was an enlightening stat. The Patriots obviously played the easiest schedule this year among the 32 NFL teams. Well, nine of the 59 teams to win the Super Bowl played the league’s easiest schedule that year. Those teams are the 1968 Jets, 1972 Dolphins, 1974 Steelers, 1984 49ers, 1987 Washington, 1992 Cowboys, 1999 Rams, 2009 Saints and the 2016 Patriots. 

Among those teams are the largest Super Bowl upset of all-time (Joe Namath’s ‘guarantee’ vs. the Colts), the only unbeaten Super Bowl champion ever (1972 Dolphins) and the team with the largest Super Bowl comeback ever (2016 Patriots trailed the Falcons 28-3). 

That’s how those teams will be remembered. Not for an easy schedule, not even close. 

As the old adage goes, you can only beat who’s in front of you. The teams the Patriots played this postseason had a chance to win. And maybe they should have won, too. C.J. Stroud played carelessly despite having an amazing defense and turned it over five times. Jarrett Stidham tried to do too much instead of taking a sack and it led to the Patriots only touchdown. 

If the Patriots beat the Seahawks they will have earned a seventh Lombardi Trophy. The Seahawks entered the postseason as Super Bowl favorites. They are arguably the most well-rounded team in the NFL and they just beat the team who most thought was the best in the NFL in the Rams. You shouldn’t even really play the Sam Darnold card anymore after he torched the Rams in the NFC title game.

Let’s face it, you have to be both lucky and good to win a championship. The Seahawks know this, too. They had their own good fortune to get here. We could have a completely different Super Bowl matchup if Seattle hadn’t converted the luckiest two-point try of all-time in Week 16 vs. the Rams. 

If Los Angeles had won that game they would have almost certainly gotten the one seed and maybe they would have been playing the Super Bowl. 

Seattle was also among the least impacted teams by injuries this year (fifth-fewest games missed by Week 1 starters) and they faced a 49ers team in the playoffs that was without George Kittle, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner

Ultimately, I think the Patriots schedule talk, while really interesting, is a moot point if they win the Super Bowl. Yes, even with one of the easiest schedules ever. It’s part of the story on how they could be here. They took advantage of an easy schedule and injury luck to reach the big game in one of the most wide open Super Bowl races ever. You probably would have been able to make a similar argument against almost any team that made the Super Bowl out of the AFC this year.

That shouldn’t discredit their accomplishment if they pull an upset vs. the Seahawks. I’m sure that won’t stop people from trying though, especially those blinded by their jealous rage of the Patriots.