It’s separation season in college basketball. Pretender or contender status will be earned this weekend with numerous titans set to square off in matchups that could shift the calculus on Selection Sunday in a major way.
Friday’s Michigan-Michigan State rivalry clash features two teams on pace for top-three seeds. Sunday’s battle between Illinois and Nebraska features two squads that are eyeing a potential No. 1 seed. Oh, and Sunday’s Florida-Alabama matchup will go a long way in determining who is the cream of the crop in the SEC, and the chance to earn a top-four seed and wear home uniforms for the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
Let’s dive into this weekend’s top storylines, bracketology version.
Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.
Can anyone else join the Big 12’s ‘Stellar Six’?
Arizona, Iowa State, Houston, BYU, Kansas and Texas Tech are going to make the Big Dance, barring something catastrophic down the stretch. All of the Big 12 titans are tracking for a top-five seed. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that ninth-seeded UCF is the only other Big 12 team in the field of 68 today. The Knights cruised to an 11-1 non-conference record, but they have predictably shown a bit more cracks in the armor in Big 12 play, taking losses to Oklahoma State, Arizona and Iowa State. The next 10 days will be illuminating for UCF’s resume.
Saturday’s home test against Texas Tech is a war. Good luck and best wishes beating Houston on the road on Wednesday. Oh, and then next Sunday features a road trip to Cincinnati. Win two out of three and UCF’s on sturdy ground for an at-large berth. Lose a couple, and the Big 12 could be staring down the reality that just six of the 16 teams in the league are NCAA Tournament caliber.
The top of the Big 12 is the best in America, but getting 38% of its teams in the Big Dance would be the lowest percentage for the league since 2007.
Road warriors?
Road wins are like gold for Wins Above Bubble (WAB), a second-year metric the NCAA Tournament seeding committee is using to weigh resumes against what the average bubble team would do with the same slate. Margin of victory is irrelevant for WAB, but where you win is vital. The most impressive win so far, for WAB purposes, this year is Wisconsin going into Ann Arbor and knocking off Michigan. The list of WAB’s most-outstanding wins is littered with neutral-site or true road victories.
That raises the stakes for teams currently close to the bubble.
Indiana is currently a No. 10 seed, but it can buff up its resume in a major way if it can beat UCLA on the road on Saturday. Knocking off the Bruins would earn IU +0.70 WAB, equaling the mark it earned for beating Purdue at home this week.
Ohio State is in a similar boat. The Buckeyes are currently a No. 10 seed. They don’t have much wiggle room, but a road win over Wisconsin would earn OSU approximately +0.72 WAB. That would be the best win of the season for Jake Diebler’s group and catapult Ohio State approximately 10 spots higher in WAB from 43rd to nearly top-30 status. A loss would knock Ohio State out of the projected tournament picture, per CBS Sports’ algorithm.
Road wins are a salve to escape the falling knife that is the bubble in a jiffy.
Road games for Texas (at Oklahoma), Kentucky (at Arkansas), SMU (at Louisville) and San Diego State (at Utah State) will also be notable in the chase for at-large bids. The Longhorns are among CBS Sports’ first four teams out of the field and San Diego State, a current No. 11 seed, is not too far ahead in the first four.
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