Every Friday leading up to conference tournaments, I’ll take an early look at some of Saturday’s biggest college basketball games based on the opening lines. This Saturday features a key SEC clash between Kentucky and Arkansas, while two NBA lottery picks square off when BYU travels to Kansas.
I’ll give an early lean for each game and where I think the line will move closer to tipoff. These are just leans unless I mention I officially gave out a pick on SportsLine in the analysis.
Note: Saturday’s opening lines and subject to change.
BYU Cougars at Kansas Jayhawks (-4.5, -158.5)
It’s not often we get to watch the projected top two picks in the NBA Draft face off in college, but that’s the case on Saturday when Darryn Peterson and Kansas face AJ Dybantsa and BYU. Peterson has missed 10 games this season, including the Jayhawks’ victory over Kansas State last Saturday. However, early reports say the 6-6 freshman is expected to play versus BYU. Ironically, Kansas is 7-3 with Peterson and 8-2 without him in the lineup this season.
Dybantsa comes in hot, scoring 76 points in his last two games. I originally targeted BYU in this spot when getting anything over three points. The only thing that concerns me is the Cougars are coming off a loss to Arizona where they fought back from a 19-point deficit in the final 10 minutes before falling 86-83. There can’t be any hangover early on the road Saturday or Kansas will likely jump out to a big lead.
These two teams are pretty even on paper. One area where BYU has a big edge is on the offensive glass. The Cougars are the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the Big 12 according to KenPom, while Kansas ranks ninth in defensive rebounding percentage.
I expect this to be a close, entertaining game. FanDuel opened Kansas -3.5 but DraftKings and a couple of other books were at 4.5. I think we see the number settle at 4.5 everywhere. The Jayhawks are an excellent free throw shooting team, which could come into play if they have a late lead, so I would need +4 or more with the Cougars. Anything lower and I would look to get a better number live.
Lean: BYU +4.5
Bet on BYU vs. Kansas at DraftKings, where new users can get $300 in bonus bets when they wager $5 or more and that bet wins:
Kentucky Wildcats at Arkansas Razorbacks (-7.5, 161.5)
Start your engines. This should be a wild game between two teams that play fast and don’t always care about defense. Kentucky had won two straight on the road before laying an egg at Vanderbilt Wednesday where the Wildcats got blown out 80-55. It won’t get any easier for the Cats on Saturday facing an Arkansas squad that is a perfect 12-0 on its home court this season.
Kentucky has put up some stinkers away from home, although I expect a much better effort from them here than the one we saw against Vanderbilt. Having said that, I don’t really love the makeup of this Wildcats team. They have struggled offensively in SEC play, ranking 10th in offensive efficiency and 14th in 2-point field goal percentage. On the other hand, Arkansas ranks first in 2-point field goal percentage. That means the Hogs are likely to get more open looks and easy buckets in this matchup.
I do believe this will be a competitive game and would consider Kentucky +7.5. The problem with that is DraftKings is the only book that opened Arkansas -7.5. The rest are hanging on at 6.5. I expect this number to go down, but would lean the Wildcats if you can get them at +7.5 or higher.
Lean: Kentucky +7.5
St. Mary’s Gaels at Gonzaga Bulldogs (-10.5, 148.5)
I think Gonzaga is overrated in the market right now. The Bulldogs are a good team, but this line feels a little high because they dismantle most opponents in the WCC. St. Mary’s is a different story, though.
The Gaels are 4-2 in their last six games against Gonzaga and have covered this number five times over that span. Sometimes past results don’t matter, but I look at those trends more when the coaches don’t change. That’s the case here. Randy Bennett and Mark Few know each other well, so recent results hold more weight.
This game is extremely even on paper with one exception: Free throw shooting. That may not sound sexy, but foul shooting plays a big role in close conference games. St. Mary’s is the top free throw shooting team in the WCC at 81.4 percent, while Gonzaga ranks last at 64.6 percent. That is one of the biggest gaps I’ve seen all season, and while foul shooting may not matter for the Bulldogs when they face inferior opponents like Portland and Pepperdine, it could come into play Saturday if the game is competitive late.
I have a strong lean on St. Mary’s here and it’s possible I make the Gaels an official play at some point. I think the number should be closer to 7.5 and expect it will go down by Saturday morning. Look at St. Mary’s at +8.5 or better.
Lean: St. Mary’s +10.5
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