Zach Pereles’ Super Bowl 2026 pick: Why the Seahawks defense will be difference in game

One of the beauties of the NFL is that a champion can come from anywhere. Entering this season, the New England Patriots were hoping a new coach and a free agency splurge would help improve things for Drake Maye, the No. 2 pick in 2024 who had shown plenty of promising signs but overall struggled amid dismal surroundings in his rookie year. Mike Vrabel seemed like he’d raise the floor — he had been so good for the Tennessee Titans after all — but teams coming off 4-13 seasons don’t just all of a sudden become Super Bowl contenders. In fact, no team with 13 or more losses one season had made the Super Bowl the loss. A 20-13 Week 1 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders seemed to confirm the fact that the Patriots still had a ways to go.

The Seattle Seahawks, meanwhile, were moving away from one quarterback — Geno Smith — and onto another. Sam Darnold came to the Pacific Northwest after a remarkable rejuvenation season with the Minnesota Vikings, but his late-season collapse left many wondering which version was the “real” Sam Darnold: the one who threw for over 4,300 yards and 35 touchdowns and won 14 games or the one who took nine sacks in a disastrous wild card performance? The Seahawks lost their opener, 17-13, to the San Francisco 49ers, and there still seemed to be more questions than answers.

Now those Week 1 defeats are long, long, long gone. The Patriots and the Seahawks play for the Lombardi Trophy next week. It’s the first Super Bowl matchup of teams with 50-1 (or longer) preseason Super Bowl odds since 1981, and it should be a doozy.

Where to watch Super Bowl 2026

• Date: Sunday, Feb. 8 | Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Levi’s Stadium (Santa Clara, California)
• Halftime performer: Bad Bunny
• TV: NBC, streaming on Peacock 
• Follow: CBS Sports App
• Betting odds: Seahawks -4.5 | O/U 45.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Super Bowl LX prediction

Expect a bit of a slow start in this game. This is a big, big game, and the atmosphere is unlike anything either quarterback has been in before. On three opening drives this postseason, Maye is 2-for-5 for 13 yards and a sack, and the Patriots have managed exactly one first down. Add in that Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald will have had two weeks to cook up a variety of defensive looks, schemes and pressure packages — and the same goes for Patriots defensive play caller Zak Kuhr — and I don’t envision either team getting off to a blazing start offensively. It’s an overused comparison, but it really is a “feeling out” period like in boxing.

Keeping the boxing parallels going, this is very much a heavyweight fight. This is the only Super Bowl since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger in which both teams ranked in the top four in scoring offense and scoring defense in the regular season.

The Seahawks getting there is one of the biggest reasons Klint Kubiak emerged as one of the hottest coaching candidates in the NFL. Kubiak has worked under his father Gary as well as Kevin Stefanski and Kyle Shanahan, and those influences are all over his offense. Seattle had the second-highest under-center rate this season — only behind the Los Angeles Rams — and had the seventh-highest play action dropback rate. That has provided Darnold with lots of quick, easy answers, and it can also help take the burden off the offensive line. It also places a huge burden on opposing linebackers.

Expect a lot of Jaxon Smith-Njigba in these situations.

It’s also worth noting the Seahawks’ modest improvement running the ball. Over the first nine weeks, Seattle was 31st in rushing success rate. Since then, it is up to 18th. Kenneth Walker III is an explosive runner who can make a game-breaking play out of nothing.

But really, it’s the other side of the ball in which Seattle has the biggest edge. The Patriots are averaging just 18 points per game in the postseason, the lowest by any team entering the Super Bowl since the 1979 Rams. The Patriots’ offensive line has really struggled this postseason, and while it’s worth recognizing that’s been against many of the league’s best, the Seahawks’ defense is … also among the league’s best. Nothing is easy about this team. Interior defenders Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy II are disruptive, and there’s a host of edge rushers available, too. If Devon Witherspoon isn’t the best cornerback in the NFL, he’s right up there with anyone, and his high levels of competitiveness and physicality are present across the defense. The Seahawks don’t miss tackles, and they don’t allow big plays, either. Seattle’s 7.4% explosive play rate allowed is the best by any team since the 2012 49ers. Maye has been terrific across the board this year, but this defense takes away his biggest strength — the big play — as well as anyone.

Seattle also has some smaller edges around the edges, including on special teams. It has the best unit on the field overall (its defense) and the best offensive weapon in Smith-Njigba. Seattle heads home the champion.

Pick: Seahawks 24, Patriots 20
MVP: Jaxon Smith-Njigba