UFC 325 will see the promotion head Down Under as the star-studded event takes place from Sydney, Australia on Saturday. The main card begins at 9 p.m. ET and will stream on Paramount+, with Qudos Bank Arena playing host. Many UFC 325 bets will center on the main event of Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2, which is a featherweight championship rematch. Reigning two-time champion Alexander Volkanovski (27-4) will look for another victory over challenger, Diego Lopes (27-7), after the former prevailed via decision at UFC 314 last April.
The latest UFC 325 odds have Volkanovski as the -148 favorite (risk $148 to win $100) as the Aussie will have the backing of the home crowd. Lopes, who is the No. 2 ranked featherweight, comes in at +124 (risk $100 to win $124). The co-main event is a lightweight battle between No. 6 Dan Hooker (+250) and No. 8 Benoit Saint-Denis (-310). Before locking in any UFC 325 picks, make sure you see the MMA predictions and betting advice from Mike McClure’s proven computer model.
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McClure’s UFC model runs 10,000 simulations for every fight. Each simulation plays out the fight round-by-round, accounting for dynamic win probability that shifts based on fighter attributes, round-by-round finish calculations with KO/submission timing, accumulating damage factors that increase finish likelihood in later rounds and fighter-specific finishing tendencies such as power punchers vs grapplers vs decision fighters.
The model backtested against more than 500 fights from 2023-25 and showed more than 18 units of profit — a 6.1% ROI on UFC betting. It also got off to a hot start for the new era of UFC on Paramount+, hitting both Justin Gaethe to win outright (+195) and the Over in total rounds in the main event at UFC 324.
Now, the model has analyzed Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 from every angle and revealed its top betting picks and best bets. Head to SportsLine to see them.
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Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 preview
The first Australian-born fighter to win UFC gold, the 36-year-old Volkanovski is also the oldest fighter in UFC history to win the featherweight championship. He was honored by topping the promotion’s pound-for-pound rankings in both 2022 and 2023, and at one point he had an 11-fight win streak within the featherweight division. While he has just a 2-3 record over his last five bouts, two of those came when Volkanovski stepped up in weight class and challenged Islam Makhachev for the UFC Lightweight Championship, losing both bouts to Makhachev.
The other defeat saw the Aussie drop the featherweight title to Ilia Topuria in Feb. 2024. However, he then won the vacant UFC Featherweight Championship in his next bout, which was the first match with Lopes. Volkanovski won via unanimous decision as he landed more than twice as many significant strikes (158) than his opponent landed total strikes (71). That was the 11th decision victory of Volkanovski’s MMA career, as he also has 13 KOs and three submission triumphs. Check out SportsLine to see the model’s picks and analysis.
The 31-year-old Lopes has youth on his side versus Volkanovski, in addition to five inches over his 5-foot-6 opponent. A native of Brazil, Lopes has a BJJ background and signed with UFC in 2023. After dropping his first fight, he then went on a five-bout winning streak, earning Performance of the Night twice during that span. That led to his first title shot versus Volkanovski at UFC 314 in April 2025, and though the Brazilian came up short, the bout was awarded Fight of the Night.
While Volkanovski has been idle since then, Lopes took a fight against Jean Silva, a fellow Brazilian who was ranked and had recorded five straight finish victories. Lopes prevailed in that September 2025 bout via TKO with a spinning elbow and punches. That was his 11th knockout victory, to go along with 12 submissions and four wins via decision. Neither Lopes nor Volkanovski have ever lost via submission, though both have tasted defeat by knockout and on the scorecards. You can only see the model’s UFC 325 picks and analysis at SportsLine.
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 predictions
One of the model’s top UFC 325 picks: It is backing Mauricio Ruffy at -120 (+6.0% edge) against Rafael Fiziev.
“From a stylistic perspective, this is a clash between Ruffy, who profiles as a technical fighter, and Fiziev, who operates primarily as a power striker,” McClure said. “There’s a reasonable chance we see a finish here — our model projects a 57% stoppage rate with knockout or TKO being the most common method at 47%. This is a modest edge on the favorite, but playable at this price. The model sees Ruffy as slightly more likely to win than the market suggests.” See who else to back here.
You can make this pick at FanDuel, where new users can also check out the latest FanDuel promo code and get $200 in bonus bets instantly at FanDuel if your $5 bet wins.
How to make UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 picks
The model has strong picks for Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 and other bouts on the UFC 325 card. It is also backing an underdog fighter who wins outright in more than 50% of simulations. You can see who it is only at SportsLine.
Who wins UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the advanced model which showed a 6.1% ROI from over 500 fights from 2023-25, and find out.
UFC 325 main fight card, odds
See picks at SportsLine.
(Odds from DraftKings and subject to change)
Alexander Volkanovski (-148) vs. Diego Lopes (+124)
Dan Hooker (+250) vs. Benoit Saint Denis (-310)
Rafael Fiziev (-102) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (-118)
Tai Tuivasa (+245) vs. Tallison Teixeira (-305)
Quillan Salkilld (-1050) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+675)
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