From Fred Biletnikoff and Lynn Swann to Hines Ward and Jerry Rice, receivers have had a significant impact in Super Bowl history.
Receivers have won the Super Bowl MVP award eight times; only quarterbacks have been named the game’s MVP more times. And the last receiver to earn the award was Cooper Kupp, who took home the trophy four years ago when he was with the Rams but now plays with the Seattle Seahawks.
This year’s Super Bowl LX matchup between the Seahawks and the New England Patriots features an array of receivers who are capable of big games. Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the league in receiving yards (1,793) during the regular season. Meanwhile, Stefon Diggs is the first Patriots receiver to have a 1,000-yard season since Julian Edelman in 2019.
DraftKings has set Smith-Njigba’s receptions prop at 6.5 and his receiving yards prop at 95.5. Meanwhile, Diggs’ are 4.5 and 44.5. Those are just some of the hundreds of receiving player props available for Super Bowl LX.
Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 6.5 receptions, 95.5 receiving yards
Cooper Kupp: 2.5 receptions, 31.5 receiving yards
Rashid Shaheed: 1.5 receptions, 21.5 receiving yards
Smith-Njigba has had at least seven receptions in 13 of 19 games this season, including the playoffs. He also has had at least 96 receiving yards in 12 games. He is coming off a 10-catch, 153-yard performance against the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, but note that Los Angeles had issues covering JSN all season: 6.9 receptions, 103.4 receiving yards per game.
The Patriots, on the other hand, have been excellent at limiting receivers all season. Led by cornerback Christian Gonzalez, New England gave up just 119.5 receiving yards per game to receivers during the regular season, which ranked sixth in the NFL. The Patriots have allowed fewer than 195 passing yards in 10 straight games.
If Kupp’s game log this season is any indication, his reception and receiving yards totals are spot-on. In 18 games this season, he has gone Over 2.5 catches nine times and Over 31.5 receiving yards 10 times. However, he has gone Over both in each of his last two games.
Shaheed’s offensive productivity took a hit after he was acquired in a trade from New Orleans. He has had one or fewer catches in each of his last five games. But this explosive playmaker doesn’t need many touches to make an impact; his one catch in the NFC Championship Game went for 51 yards and set up the team’s first touchdown.
Best bets: Smith-Njigba Over 6.5 receptions, Over 95.5 receiving yards
JSN topped all NFL receivers this season against man coverage and ranked second against zone, so there’s little the Patriots can do to limit his production. In addition, Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is a master at finding ways to get Smith-Njigba the ball. JSN dominates the team’s targets at 35.4%, which is the highest rate of any receiver in the league this season.
Last year’s game between these teams isn’t an accurate picture of how the Super Bowl will be played, since both teams are drastically different. But Smith-Njigba had 12 receptions for 117 yards against Gonzalez & Co, and DK Metcalf, who’s no longer with the team, had 10 catches for 129 yards and one touchdown.
Patriots
Stefon Diggs: 4.5 receptions, 44.5 receiving yards
Kayshon Boutte: 2.5 receptions, 31.5 receiving yards
Mack Hollins: 2.5 receptions, 27.5 receiving yards
The Patriots may have had the No. 4 passing offense in the league during the regular season (250.5 yards per game), but they’ve been grounded over the last two games. In the AFC Divisional Round against the Texans and in the AFC Championship Game against the Broncos, New England had a total of 208 passing yards.
Weather and the quality of defenses certainly played major roles in keeping the Patriots passing game in check, but things won’t get easier for New England in the Super Bowl. The Seahawks defense allowed opposing passers a 69.5 passer rating when throwing to receivers during the regular season, which ranked second in the entire league.
Diggs’ production has been trending down. He has gone Under 44.5 receiving yards in each of his last four games (43, 16, 40 and 17) and Under 4.5 receptions in three of his last four. But to be fair the weather in the last two games wasn’t conducive to throwing the ball. For the season, he has gone Under 4.5 receptions in 11 of 20 games and Under 44.5 receiving yards in 12 of 20. He is, however, the team’s top receiver against zone defenses, and the Seahawks play more than their share of zone.
Over bettors could find Boutte interesting. Since he returned in Week 18 from a concussion, his targets have inched up. In the AFC Championship Game he had only one catch for 6 yards in that snow storm, but he had six targets even though quarterback Drake Maye threw the ball just 21 times. In the previous two playoff games, he had four catches for 66 yards against the Chargers and three receptions for 75 and a touchdown against the Texans.
Hollins returned from an abdomen ailment to make two catches for 51 yards in the AFC Championship Game. If he’s healthy for the Super Bowl, his totals are more than reachable. But early reports suggest that he’s still dealing with the abdomen issue. Any Hollins prop is probably worth avoiding until more information becomes available.
Best bets: Boutte Over 2.5 receptions
Boutte’s surging target share makes him an interesting play. In addition, he showed tremendous big-play potential when beating the Texans’ two-time All-Pro cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. for a touchdown in the AFC Divisional Round win. So Maye won’t hesitate going to Boutte in important situations. Though Boutte has gone Over 2.5 in just seven of 16 games this season, Over 2.5 is more than reachable.
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