There are eight games on the NBA schedule on Thursday, and hundreds of NBA player props to choose from, but 76ers center Joel Embiid presents an interesting opportunity for NBA bettors. The former NBA MVP is being heavily limited given his injury history, and he’s expected to play for the second time in three days on Thursday against the Kings. The latest NBA odds list Embiid’s over/under for total rebounds at 9.5, but he’s averaging only 7.5 rebounds per game this season and has a daunting matchup with Domantas Sabonis ahead. The SportsLine Projection Model predicts Embiid will finish with only 7.2 rebounds on average and recommends Michael Porter Jr. Over 25.5 points and Dyson Daniels Under 6.5 assists among its best NBA player props.
Targeting NBA player props will be a popular way to approach Thursday’s NBA betting at online sports betting sites. With NBA odds available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, the model can help you find value to add to your Thursday NBA picks at various sportsbooks. They can also help new users take advantage of sportsbook promos like the DraftKings promo code, where new users can bet $5, and get $300 in bonus bets if your first bet of at least $5 wins:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model enters Week 15 of the 2025-26 NBA season on a sizzling 37-16 roll on top-rated NBA spread picks dating back to last season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Best NBA player prop picks on Thursday:
- Michael Porter Jr., Nets, Over 25.5 points
- Joel Embiid, 76ers, Under 9.5 rebounds
- Dyson Daniels, Hawks, Under 6.5 assists
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Michael Porter Jr., Nets, Over 25.5 points (-110)
After seven seasons in Denver, Porter landed in Brooklyn and has become the primary scoring option for the Nets. He’s averaging 25.2 points per game this season, but has scored 30 or more in two of his last three games. On Thursday, he’ll take on his former team — the Nuggets — and he dropped 27 points against them earlier this season. Denver will be without Nikola Jokic (knee) and Aaron Gordon (hamstring) tonight, and that’s a big reason why the model predicts 28.6 points on average.
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Joel Embiid, 76ers, Under 9.5 rebounds (-120)
There’s plus-money available at 8.5 on FanDuel (+104), and that’s helping juice our parlay, but he’s cleared that hurdle in each of his last four games. However, he’s been Under 9.5 rebounds seven of the last nine times that he’s suited up, and it’s worth the squeeze as a single play. He’s got a tough rebounding matchup on Thursday night, and the model is predicting that he finishes with 7.2 rebounds on average.
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Dyson Daniels, Hawks, Under 6.5 assists (-112)
Daniels has evolved into one of the league’s elite defenders, and his length as a guard has also turned him into an incredibly capable playmaker. He’s cleared this number in four of his last five games. However, he’s only averaging 6.3 assists per game this season and has been Under 6.5 assists in 25 of the 47 games that he’s played this season. The Rockets rank fourth in the NBA in points allowed per game (110.5), and the model is predicting that Daniels only manages 5.4 assists on average.
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Want more Thursday NBA picks?
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NBA expert Prop Bet Guy is 65-43 (+1532) in his last 108 NBA player prop picks this season. See his latest NBA predictions here.
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