Why Eli Manning got snubbed from Hall of Fame again: Inside the most complex HOF case ever

Eli Manning will have to wait at least one more year. The two-time Super Bowl MVP reportedly did not receive enough votes for election into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in his second year of eligibility. 

His snub last year did not come as a complete surprise, after all, he had a .500 record in his career and rarely was near the top of the annual passing leaderboards. On the other hand, his two Super Bowl MVPs with game-winning drives over the Patriots and Tom Brady are the stuff of legend and something you figure Canton can’t live without. 

It’s what makes up one of the most complex Hall of Fame cases ever.

Why Manning was snubbed again

Hall of Fame quarterbacks are naturally a very elite group. These are quarterbacks with a lot of hardware who were consistently among the best quarterbacks in the game. For the most part, Manning fell well below the bar of being one of the best passers on a year in, year out basis. 

I looked at Manning’s yearly ranks among qualified quarterbacks in a variety of stats. The comparisons range from unflattering to shocking. 

He is nowhere close to a Hall of Fame caliber quarterback when it comes to efficiency measures. 

First, I looked at EPA per play (expected points added per play). He ranked 18th on average when ranking every season of his 16-year career. That’s below average play! It’s worse than Derek Carr. Manning finished in the top 10 three times and none in the top five. 

Next up, Pro Football Reference’s ANY/A+ (adjusted net yards per pass attempt index). It’s a mouthful, but essentially a better version of passer rating that is era adjusted, perfect for comparing Manning to both his peers and quarterbacks in the Hall of Fame. His average annual rank was 17th, or worse than Andy Dalton. The average Hall of Fame QB ranked 10th on an annual basis. 

There’s also passer rating for the dinosaurs out there! His average rank was 19th. Worse than Carson Wentz. Ouch. He had zero top-five finishes and just one top-10 finish, in 2011. The average Hall of Fame QB (I looked at 14 to debut since 1969) ranked 10th on an annual basis. None had fewer than five top-10 finishes in their career. In other words, Manning never sniffed consistent greatness in terms of efficiency and that’s very far below the bar for a HOFer.

HOF QBs who debuted since 1969 – Top 10 passer rating finishes:

• Peyton Manning: 15
• Joe Montana: 13
• Dan Marino: 12
• Brett Favre: 11
• Steve Young: 8
• Dan Fouts: 8
• Roger Staubach: 7
• Kurt Warner: 6
• Terry Bradshaw: 6
• Jim Kelly: 6
• Troy Aikman: 6
• Warren Moon: 6
• Ken Stabler: 5
• John Elway: 5

He ranked around 10th for the year-by-year leaderboards for touchdown passes and passing yards, which is closer to the Hall of Fame average.

The table below summarizes the average year-by-year ranks for Manning vs. the 14 Hall of Fame QBs to debut since 1969. It’s not pretty. 

Eli Manning Avg Season QB Ranks in 16-Year Career

The longer it takes Eli to get in the tougher it could be with other quarterbacks coming on the ballot soon. Drew Brees is a lock for this year (even if Bill Belichick wasn’t a first ballot Hall of Famer). Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger will also be locks. His resume is going to be compared with a group of borderline Hall of Fame quarterbacks that will be tough to judge in this passing era where everyone put up big volume numbers like Manning. Leaving Cam Newton off this comparison because his Hall of Fame resume comes down to his rushing numbers.

Notable 2000s Quarterbacks on the Hall of Fame Bubble

Here’s a look at where each of these Hall of Fame bubble quarterbacks ranked on a yearly basis for passer rating, passing yards and passing touchdowns. Again, Eli’s efficiency numbers don’t even sniff what Stafford, Rivers, Wilson and Ryan did.

Notable 2000s Quarterbacks on the Hall of Fame Bubble – Passer Rating ranks

His volume numbers are more on par. 

Notable 2000s Quarterbacks on the Hall of Fame Bubble – Pass TD and yards ranks

When you factor in Manning’s 117-117 career record and the fact that he only won a playoff game in two of the 16 seasons in his career (he won Super Bowl each of those years) you could imagine some heated debates taking place among Hall of Fame voters in future years.

Why he could eventually get in

On the opposite side of the spectrum, Eli’s trophy case, durability, longevity and overall mark on the game amounts to a first ballot case.

He’s one of six players all-time with multiple Super Bowl MVPs along with Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Montana, Bart Starr and Terry Bradshaw. 

You simply can’t tell the story of the National Football League without Manning’s legendary Super Bowl performances against the Patriots dynasty. He was the passer on perhaps the craziest play in Super Bowl history (David Tyree’s helmet catch) and the best throw in Super Bowl history (sideline dime to Mario Manningham). 

He’s one of four quarterbacks with multiple game-winning drives in the Super Bowl including Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes and Terry Bradshaw.

Manning was also an ironman. He started 210 straight regular-season games, the third-longest streak by a quarterback all-time behind Brett Favre and Philip Rivers. 

He also retired top 10 all-time in pass touchdowns and passing yards. That will carry less weight since he played in a passing era and he will continue to be pushed further outside the top 10.

So what should happen?

I’m glad I don’t have to make this decision. He’s a slam dunk Hall of Famer in some respects and not even close in others. Stats be damned, though. It’s cliche, but you can’t tell the story of the NFL without Manning. He may have only had two great playoff runs but they are enough to carry him to football immortality. Also, standing in and delivering pass after pass for 210 straight starts is a Hall of Fame worthy accomplishment. 

Manning won’t completely break the Hall of Fame mold either. Joe Namath is the last quarterback inducted with a a losing record. His average rank in passer rating was 17th (Eli was 19th). His average rank in passing touchdowns was 12th (Eli was 11th) and he was ninth in pass  yards (Eli was 10th in average rank). He rode into the Hall of Fame off “the guarantee”, the largest upset in Super Bowl history. I don’t see why Eli wouldn’t eventually get in with a very similar resume and two infamous Super Bowl moments to his name.