The New England Patriots dominated the Houston Texans to advance to the AFC Championship Game against the host Denver Broncos, who needed overtime to beat the Buffalo Bills. This game has plenty of intrigue and storylines, with the biggest being that starting Denver quarterback Bo Nix is out for the rest of the postseason with a broken ankle he suffered late in overtime against Buffalo. The Broncos now turn to Jarrett Stidham at quarterback when they face Drake Maye and the Patriots on Sunday with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. The winner of Patriots-Broncos will face the winner of the NFC Championship Game between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks.
Kickoff from Empower Field at Mile High Stadium is set for 3 p.m. ET on Sunday. The game will air on CBS and stream on Paramount+. The Nix injury has resulted in the Patriots being 3.5-point road favorites in the Patriots vs. Broncos odds at DraftKings. The over/under for total points is 43.5. Before making any Patriots vs. Broncos picks of your own, make sure to look at the top NFL picks from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times.
Where to watch Patriots vs. Broncos on Sunday
When: Sunday, Jan. 25
Time: 3 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Stream: Paramount+
Follow along: CBS Sports App
Patriots vs. Broncos betting preview
Odds: Patriots -3.5, over/under 43.5
The Patriots took advantage of a weak schedule to go 14-3 as the No. 2 seed in the AFC. New England has been great against the spread this year at 14-5 including its two playoff wins, and the team has won outright and covered five games in a row and six of its past seven. The Broncos have gone 8-10 ATS this year, covering three of their last five games, including each of their last two. New England has gone 12-7 to the Over this year, with six of its last seven games finishing Over. Denver is 10-8 to the Under, though five of its last seven games have finished Under the total. The Broncos were No. 3 in scoring defense and No. 14 in scoring offense in the regular season. The Patriots finished with the No. 2 scoring offense and No. 4 scoring defense.
Patriots vs. Broncos SGP
- Broncos ML
- Under 43.5
- Hunter Henry anytime touchdown scorer
Bet it at DraftKings:
Model’s Patriots vs. Broncos score prediction, picks
The Broncos are sizable underdogs at home after Nix’s injury, but the SportsLine Projection Model sees value in backing Denver on the money line as the home side wins in 46% of simulations to return value at the +180 DraftKings odds. The model also has Denver covering in nearly 58% of simulations, and the Under hits 59% of the time.
Patriots vs. Broncos score prediction: Patriots 21, Broncos 19
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