Sinners Risks Oscars Disappointment For One Simple Reason

Sinners is building some exciting momentum at this stage in awards season. Ryan Coogler’s original vampire musical planted a flag as one of 2025’s defining movies when it released way back in April, and excitement for it has hardly wavered since, but its Best Picture frontrunner status was met with some strong challenges. First from Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet, which emerged as the clear winner of the fall festivals, and then from Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, which has become a true awards juggernaut.

PTA’s singular thriller has been on a stellar run and should probably be considered at the top of the heap, but Sinners has been surging. Its presence in nominations for the Actor Awards (formerly SAG Awards), PGAs, and DGAs, as well as appearances on BAFTA’s longlists, are all in line with OBAA. With a great deal of support from the craft categories expected, there’s speculation that Sinners could break the all-time Oscar nominations record, currently held by All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land at 14.

However, even if Sinners is the most-nominated film at this year’s Academy Awards, I fear it could be in for some heartbreak on Oscars night. One simple stat could be the reason that most of its nominations don’t ultimately translate into wins.

Sinners Was An American Phenomenon & That Could Hurt Its Appeal

Michael B Jordan kneeling in a suit in Sinners

Despite a notable level of angst in the press over its sizable budget, Sinners was a big success, grossing $368.3 million worldwide. It held exceptionally well, a sign of a true word-of-mouth hit.

But its success is all the more remarkable given it was only really a domestic phenomenon. Nearly $280 million of that worldwide total was earned in the US and Canada alone; a whopping 76%. According to Box Office Mojo, that’s the highest percentage among the 50 highest-grossing films of last year (where Sinners ranks 19th).

Why is that? The Black List’s Franklin Leonard might argue, as he did on The Town during Sinners‘ original run, that Warner Bros. likely spent less on international marketing compared to the domestic campaign, based on the industry’s often-held but erroneous belief that films with Black leads don’t perform well overseas. (The studio refuted that narrative in a statement included in that podcast.) But it’s also a deeply American story: a period piece, set in a specific region of the South and centered on an American music tradition. The Coen brothers’ O Brother, Where Art Thou?, which features a similar setting and musical throughline, similarly leaned more heavily domestic at the box office.

Clearly, the US skew hasn’t slowed down Sinners‘ awards season, but it could still matter. Much has been made of the Academy’s evolving makeup in recent years, which has resulted in a higher number of international films being recognized outside their designated category. The BAFTAs are often used as a barometer for this global voting block, in contrast to Hollywood’s guild awards, and Sinners still appeared on a high number of their longlists. But if it misses some key nominations, or fails to secure many wins, it could be an early sign of what’s to come on Oscar night.

Sinners is in a tough fight across the board, with many great, deserving films contending in each category. If Coogler’s movie doesn’t hold the same appeal to international voters as American ones, it could fall behind another contender in any given category, and those losses start to pile up. It feels impossible that it would go home with nothing, but anyone expecting a Sinners sweep may find themselves disappointed on Oscar night.