The job usually gets easier for oddsmakers when the NFL playoffs start. Not only do they have 18 weeks of data to draw from, but they no longer have to determine the motivation level of the teams involved. With few surprising injuries entering NFL Super Wild Card Weekend, the odds have held pretty steady, though Saturday’s Packers vs. Bears rematch (8 p.m. ET) has caused a little hesitation. NFL Wild Card Weekend begins with Saturday’s Rams vs. Panthers matchup at 4:30 p.m. ET. It’s the only game this weekend with a spread of more than 5.5 points, with Los Angeles favored by 10.5 at Carolina.
Chicago is a 1.5-point home underdog at DraftKings in Bears vs. Packers, but some books had the Bears listed as favorites to open, and some are still leaning toward them. Sunday’s opening matchup is Bills vs. Jaguars at 1 p.m. ET, and oddsmakers also expect that to be a close one. Buffalo is a 1.5-point road favorite against the AFC’s No. 3 seed. The home team is favored in Sunday’s other two games, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, as Philadelphia gets a 5.5-point edge in 49ers vs. Eagles (4:30 p.m. ET) and New England is a 3.5-point favorite in Chargers vs. Patriots (8 p.m. ET).
NFL Super Wild Card Weekend wraps up with a Monday night Texans vs. Steelers matchup in the AFC at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Texans are three-point favorites on the road after Pittsburgh advanced when the Ravens missed a winning field goal in their Week 18 showdown for the AFC North title. The top seeds, the NFC’s Seattle Seahawks and the AFC’s Denver Broncos, will be home watching the NFL playoffs opening weekend awaiting their assignments.
Here, we will break down the NFL Super Wild Card Weekend odds and how they have been affected since lines first opened, with all odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
49ers vs. Eagles (Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET)
This is the only game of the weekend with notable odds movement. The 49ers crashed back to Earth in a 13-3 loss to the Seahawks in Week 18, when Seattle had more rushing yards (180) than San Francisco had in total (173). Brock Purdy threw for 127 yards after topping 290 in three straight games. The 49ers are banged up, while the Eagles allowed an average of 10 points in three consecutive victories before resting their starters in Week 18. The model has the Eagles covering in 50% of simulations, but there is value on the 49ers money line, as they are winning outright 37% of the time as +201 underdogs. The Over is hitting 54% of the time, with the model projecting 48 points.
Packers vs. Bears (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)
- Open: Packers -1.5, O/U 45.5
- Now: Packers -1.5, O/U 44.5
The oddsmakers know this one will be close. The Bears were favored by some but are 1.5-point underdogs at DraftKings and on the SportsLine consensus NFL odds. The two regular-season meetings were decided by at least six points, but both went down to the wire. Chicago nearly drove for a tying score before a turnover in its 28-21 loss at home, and the one in Green Bay went to overtime, a 22-16 Bears victory. The model has the Bears covering the spread in 54% of simulations and winning outright in 52% of the time.
Texans vs. Steelers (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
- Open: Texans -3.5, O/U 39.5
- Now: Texans -3, O/U 38.5
The Steelers are lucky to be here after missing an extra point that would have put them up by three points then watching the Ravens miss the winning field goal on the other end in Week 18. The Texans have the league’s best defense, a unit that allows just 277 yards per game (fewest in NFL) and 17.4 points (second-fewest). The Steelers allow 22.8 per contest (17th). The Texans have won nine consecutive games, but the the SportsLine model doesn’t see them dominating this one. In fact, it has the Steelers covering the spread in 54% of simulations and winning 50% of the time as +130 money line underdogs.
Bills vs. Jaguars (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
- Open: Bills -1.5, O/U 51.5
- Now: Bills -1.5, O/U 51.5
This one looks like a legitimate toss-up, as the SportsLine model projects this as a 1-point games and has the Jaguars winning in 52% of its simulations. The Jaguars have been rolling, winning eight in a row, but the Bills have the playoff pedigree. Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen will finally avoid facing heartbreak at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs, who have knocked the Bills out of the playoffs four of the past five seasons. It won’t be easy against the Jags, who have allowed an average of 14.5 points on their eight-game run. They are 12-5 against the spread this season, and Buffalo is 8-9 ATS.
Chargers vs. Patriots (Sunday, 8 p.m. ET)
- Open: Patriots -3.5, O/U 45.5
- Now: Patriots -3.5, O/U 46
New England has the second-best scoring offense in the NFL, with MVP candidate Drake Maye leading a unit that averages just under 29 points. They also have won 13 of their past 14 games, seven of them by double digits. The Chargers have lost their past two, though key starters sat out in Week 18. L.A. quarterback Justin Herbert averages 233 passing yards per game, but has been beat up all season. The SportsLine model is projecting the Patriots winning by six points and covering the spread in 55% of simulations. The Chargers win 37% of the time, offering some value on L.A. at +163 on the money line.
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