With just five weeks to play in the regular season, this is shaping up to be one of the wildest playoff races in NFL history.
Through the first 13 weeks, there have been ZERO playoff spots clinched and that number won’t be changing this week, because there’s not a single clinching scenario in Week 14, which is something that almost never happens. The last time the NFL made it through the first 14 weeks without a single team clinching a playoff spot came all the way back in 2014.
The 2014 season ended with the Seahawks and the Patriots as the top seeds, which is mostly notable, because we could see that exact same thing happen this year.
With all 14 spots up for grabs, that might have you wondering who’s going to make the postseason this year and since everyone wants to know, we’re going to be publishing a playoff projection every week from now until the end of the season. These projections will be based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine. Each week, Oh will plug some numbers into his SportsLine computer and simulate the rest of the season. Using those numbers, we’ll project the 14 teams that we expect to make the playoffs, plus we’ll give you the postseason chances for all 32 teams.
With that in mind, let’s get to the projection. Remember, this is just a projection. If you want to see the actual playoff picture, we’ve got that here. On the other hand, if your favorite team has already been eliminated from playoff contention — I’m looking at you Titans, Raiders, Giants, Cardinals and Saints fans — here’s a mock draft, since you’ll probably get way more use out of reading this.
AFC playoff projection
Projections via SportsLine
1. New England Patriots (AFC East champion)
- Remaining schedule: BYE, Bills, at Ravens, at Jets, Dolphins
At this point, the computer is pretty confident that the Patriots (11-2) will end up earning the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC, which would give them a bye into the divisional round. The most difficult game left on New England’s schedule will come against Buffalo in Week 15, but the Patriots will get extra time to prepare for that game since they have a bye in Week 14. Basically, everything is coming up New England this year. The Patriots are also the overall Super Bowl favorite for the first time his year. According to the computer, New England has a 13.6% chance of winning the Super Bowl (The Seahawks have the next highest chance at 11.9%).
2. Denver Broncos (AFC West champion)
- Remaining schedule: at Raiders, Packers, Jaguars, at Chiefs, Chargers
The Broncos (10-2) could take over the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win over the Raiders on Sunday, but the reason the computer doesn’t think Denver will stay there is because the Broncos have a brutal schedule down the stretch. They have to play four playoff contenders over the final four weeks, including divisional games against two teams that could be desperately looking to keep their playoff hopes alive (Chiefs and Chargers).
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC South champion)
- Remaining schedule: Colts, Jets, at Broncos, at Colts, Titans
The AFC South race is likely going to go down to the wire, and right now, the computer has the Jaguars’ outlasting both the Colts and Texans to take home the division title. The biggest thing working in the Jags’ favor is that they have the easier strength of schedule than the other two teams. If the Jags (8-4) beat the Jets and Titans, then pull off a split with the Colts, that will put them in good shape to win the division.
4. Baltimore Ravens (AFC North champion)
- Remaining schedule: Steelers, at Bengals, Patriots, at Packers, at Steelers
With the way things are going, there’s a chance that the AFC North winner could finish the season with a losing record. Right now, the Ravens (6-6) are being projected to win the division with a record of 9-8, but if they slip up or if the Steelers struggle down the stretch, it wouldn’t be surprising if an 8-9 team wins the division. The Ravens have a 48.9% chance of winning the division, followed by the Steelers at 44.8%. And for you Bengals fans out there, Cincinnati is at 6.3%, so they’re not quite dead yet, especially with Joe Burrow back.
5. Buffalo Bills (Wild card 1)
- Remaining schedule: Bengals, at Patriots, at Browns, Eagles, Jets
With the Bills (8-4) trailing the Patriots by two games in the AFC East, the computer doesn’t think Buffalo is going to be able to win the division, giving them just an 11.9% chance to pull it off. Josh Allen has never won a road playoff game and that could make things interesting since the Bills are being projected to play on the road in the wild-card round.
6. Indianapolis Colts (Wild card 2)
- Remaining schedule: at Jaguars, at Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, at Texans
After losing two straight games, Indianapolis (8-4) is no longer being projected to win the AFC South. However, the good news for the Colts is that they still control their own fate. If they win out, they’ll win the division. Right now, the computer is giving them a 36.6% chance of winning the AFC South. The Jaguars are at 36.9% and the Texans are at 26.6%, so this division is wide open heading into Week 14.
7. Los Angeles Chargers (Wild card 3)
- Remaining schedule: Eagles, at Chiefs, at Cowboys, Texans, at Denver
We don’t need a computer for this part of the projection, we need a doctor. Justin Herbert just had surgery on his left hand, and now, there’s no guarantee that he’s going to play this week. If Herbert has to miss more than one game, that would dramatically change this projection. Herbert seems to know that every game is important from here on out, which is likely why he’s looking to play on Monday night against the Eagles.
Other AFC playoff chances: Texans (58.7%), Steelers (45.1%), Chiefs (37.6%), Bengals (6.4%), Dolphins (0.1%), Browns (0.0%), Jets (0.0%), Raiders (ELIMINATED), Titans (ELIMINATED).
Note: The Raiders, Jets, Browns and Titans aren’t eliminated, but their odds are listed at zero because the computer has given up on them.
AFC wild-card round projection
(7) Chargers at (2) Broncos
(6) Colts at (3) Jaguars
(5) Bills at (4) Ravens
Bye: Patriots
NFC playoff projection
Projections via SportsLine
1. Los Angeles Rams (NFC West champion)
- Remaining schedule: at Cardinals, Lions, at Seahawks, at Falcons, Cardinals
The Rams (9-3) are NOT currently the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but the computer expects them to be there by the end of the season. The biggest thing working in their favor is that they have an easier remaining strength of schedule than almost any other contender. Don’t be surprised if the winner of the Rams-Seahawks game in Week 16 ends up earning the No. 1 overall seed.
2. Green Bay Packers (NFC North champion)
- Remaining schedule: Bears, at Broncos, at Bears, Ravens, at Vikings
The computer loves the Packers (8-3-1). Right now, Green Bay is being given a 90.1% chance of making the playoffs, which makes them a virtual lock to get in. They also have a 52.2% chance of winning the NFC North, which is well ahead of the Bears at 41%. Based on those numbers, you can probably guess who the computer is projecting to win the Bears-Packers game on Sunday.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (NFC East champion)
- Remaining schedule: at Chargers, Raiders, at Commanders, at Bills, Commanders
After losing two straight games, the Eagles’ (8-4) lead in the NFC East is down to just 1.5 games, but the computer doesn’t think they’re going to blow that lead. Right now, the Eagles have a 86.4% chance of winning the division and that’s mostly due to the fact that they have the fourth-easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC South champion)
- Remaining schedule: Saints, Falcons, at Panthers, at Dolphins, Panthers
The computer has the Buccaneers (7-5) winning the NFC South by one game over the Panthers (7-6). This race is definitely going to be interesting and that’s mostly because the Panthers and Buccaneers will face each other twice over the final three weeks of the season. If either team can pull off a sweep, that team will likely win the division.
5. Seattle Seahawks (Wild card 1)
- Remaining schedule: at Falcons, Colts, Rams, at Panthers, at 49ers
The Seahawks (9-3) have the fourth-most difficult remaining strength of schedule, which is one reason why the computer has them playing in the wild card round. Of course, if Seattle can beat the Rams in Week 16, that will certainly open the door for them to win the NFC West and possibly even earn the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC.
6. San Francisco 49ers (Wild card 2)
- Remaining schedule: BYE, Titans, at Colts, Bears, Seahawks
The 49ers (9-4) have been one of the most banged up teams in the NFL this year, but they get a bye this week, which will allow them to recharge for the stretch run. The computer likes the fact that the 49ers will be getting some rest, which is why San Francisco is being projected into this wild card spot.
7. Chicago Bears (Wild card 3)
- Remaining schedule: at Packers, Browns, Packers, at 49ers, Lions
The Bears haven’t made the playoffs since 2020, but the computer sees that five-year drought ending this year. Although the Bears are currently atop the NFC North, the computer is expecting them to struggle down the stretch. That being said, the Bears will end up getting this spot over the Lions, and if that happens, everyone in Chicago will probably be thrilled to steal a playoff spot from a division rival.
Other NFC Playoff Chances: Lions (37.8%), Cowboys (24.5%), Panthers (15.6%), Falcons (0.1%), Vikings (0.0%), Commanders (0.0%), Cardinals (ELIMINATED), Saints (ELIMINATED), Giants (ELIMINATED)
NFC wild-card round projection
(7) Bears at (2) Packers
(6) 49ers at (3) Eagles
(5) Seahawks at (4) Buccaneers
Bye: Rams
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