North Carolina vs. Kentucky prediction, odds: 2025 college basketball picks from proven model

Ranked teams clash when the No. 17 North Carolina Tar Heels battle the No. 18 Kentucky Wildcats in one of the marquee 2025 ACC/SEC Challenge games on Tuesday night. UNC is coming off a 74-58 loss to Michigan State on Thanksgiving Day, while Kentucky defeated Tennessee Tech 104-54 on Wednesday. The Tar Heels (6-1), who tied for fourth with Wake Forest and SMU in the Atlantic Coast Conference at 13-7, were 23-14 overall a year ago. The Wildcats (5-2), who tied for sixth with Ole Miss and Missouri at 10-8, were 24-12 overall in 2024-25.

Tipoff from Rupp Arena in Lexington, Ky., is set for 9:30 p.m. ET. Kentucky leads the all-time series 25-18, including wins in each of the last two meetings. Kentucky is an 5.5-point favorite in the latest North Carolina vs. Kentucky odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 161.5. Before making any Kentucky vs. UNC picks, check out the men’s college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

New users can target the DraftKings promo code, which offers $200 in bonus bets if your $5+ bet wins:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times and has returned over $2,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks over the past three seasons. Anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.    

Now, the model has simulated UNC vs. Kentucky 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted men’s college basketball picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several men’s college basketball odds and men’s college basketball betting lines for Kentucky vs. UNC:

New users can check out the latest bet365 bonus code to get $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 bet:

How to make North Carolina vs. Kentucky picks

SportsLine’s model is going Over on the total (161.5 points). The over has hit in each of the last two meetings between the teams, including in an 87-83 Kentucky win on Dec. 16, 2023. Kentucky has gone over in four of its last six games.

The model projects North Carolina to have three players register double-digit scoring, led by Caleb Wilson’s projected 17.6 points. The Wildcats, meanwhile, are projected to have five players scoring 10.2-plus points, led by Jaland Lowe with 13.6 points. The model projects a combined total of 162 points as the Over clears in well over 50% of simulations.

The mode also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins North Carolina vs. Kentucky, and which side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the North Carolina vs. Kentucky spread to back, all from the advanced model was profitable on top-ranked college basketball picks last season, and find out.