The Chiefs are in as precarious a position as they’ve been in Patrick Mahomes’ eight seasons as starting quarterback, in danger of missing the postseason for the first time since 2014. After proving unbeatable in one-score games a season ago, the Chiefs are just 1-6 in those situations in 2025 after a Thanksgiving loss to the Cowboys. Making matters even worse for Kansas City is Week 13 wins by the Broncos and Chargers in division, as well as by several other wild-card contenders including the Bills, Texans and Jaguars.
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Things are so back that the once unthinkable has occurred and the Chiefs are no longer favored to make the postseason. Here are the Chiefs’ odds to make the playoffs at several Missouri sportsbooks:
- bet365 Sportsbook: +105 to make playofs, -135 to miss playoffs
- BetMGM Sportsbook: +110 to make playoffs, -130 to miss playoffs
- FanDuel Sportsbook: +106 to make playoffs, -130 to miss playoffs
However, if they can make the postseason, their historical success makes them a dangerous out, which is why DraftKings Sportsbook has the Chiefs with the ninth shortest odds to win the Super Bowl at +1700, behind only the Rams, Seahawks, Packers, Bills, Eagles, Broncos, Patriots and Colts. Caesars Sportsbook has them even with the Ravens at +775 to win the AFC, which is lower odds than some other potential playoff teams, such as the Jaguars, Texans and Chargers.
Which is the smarter side to bet? There are arguments for both, which I’ll go over below, but my prediction is that they will make the playoffs and that anything longer than even odds (so higher than +100) is worth taking.
Why the Chiefs won’t make the playoffs
The uphill climb starts with the current state of the AFC playoff race, where the Chiefs sit in 10th place, two back of the final wild card slot. Making matters worse, they have played all four 8-4 teams and only have one win to show for it, meaning they’d win a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Colts but no other current 8-4 teams.
The SportsLine Projection Model managed by the Inside the Lines team at CBS Sports gives the Chiefs just a 38.3% chance to make the playoffs. In order for a bet on the Chiefs to be positive expected value, you would need to be getting +160 in the market, which means that the model sees the -130 to miss playoffs as a clear value bet.
Three of the Chiefs’ final five opponents are against teams ahead of them in the playoff race, which can be seen as a curse or a blessing. It gives the Chiefs more of a chance to control their own destiny but also makes it more difficult to win out, which they may need to do to make the playoffs.
And winning out may not be enough, depending on which of the contenders slips. If the Chiefs find themselves tied with the Bills or Jaguars for that final wild card, it’s game over. If they win their rematch with the Chargers, they could still lose another tiebreaker as the teams would be even head-to-head.
There’s nearly no margin for error, which is why the SportsLine Projection Model has the Chiefs with only a 9.1% chance to make the playoffs if they lose to the Texans on Sunday night. Even if the Chiefs win that game, their playoff chances jump to only 53.9%, and since that’s barely higher than the implied chances reflected in their current market odds, you’d need to believe the Chiefs have a near 100% chance to beat the Texans to think it’s worth betting them at +110 odds to make the playoffs.
Bet on the Chiefs to miss the playoffs at bet365, where new Missouri users can get $365 in bonus bets when they wager $10, regardless of the outcome of the wager:
Why the Chiefs will make the playoffs
Clearly, the odds are stacked against Kansas City, and the model says to avoid a make playoffs bet on the Chiefs. But I’ve seen this team overcome poor underlying analytics to outperform expectations, making three straight runs to the Super Bowl even when their offense did not look as it does right now. In fact, the Chiefs are currently tracking to finish in the top 10 in both points scored and allowed for the first time since 2021.
That hints at one inescapable truth: this version of the Chiefs is actually the best its been in three years. Their +73 point differential is better than their +59 mark from the entire 15-2 season in 2024 and just shy of the +77 mark they turned in over 17 games in 2023. They’re on track to finish in triple digits in point differential for the first time since 2022, even while six of the nine teams ahead of them in the AFC race have worse point differentials on the season.
That list includes all three of the contenders they’ll face over the last five weeks. The Chiefs’ opponent this week, Houston, has a +65 point differential, while the current top-seeded Broncos have a near identical +66 point differential. The Chargers are only at +25 in point differential. The Chiefs also get to play all three teams in Kansas City, while their two road games come against two of the worst teams in the league in the Titans and Raiders.
It’s a good path for a team trying to play catch-up in the playoff race: an ideal distribution of home and away matchups, opponents who have not performed as well as the Chiefs despite the current standings and the opportunity to check two needed boxes with one result in up to three different games.
None of the other teams ahead of the Chiefs have such an ideal setup. The 8-4 Chargers have home games against the Eagles and Texans as well as away games against the Chiefs, Cowboys and Broncos, and as a result they may not be able to climb higher than 10 wins. The 8-4 Colts travel to face the Seahawks and Texans while hosting the 49ers, and they have both matchups against the surging Jaguars ahead of them. Remember, the Chiefs only have to match the Colts’ final record in a head-to-head tiebreaker scenario due to their Week 12 win and that would be the case if they beat the Texans this week as well.
Catching the 8-4 Bills will be more difficult even with Buffalo’s injuries due to remaining home matchups with the Bengals and Jets as well as a trip to Cleveland, and if the Bills win those three games and lose to the Patriots and Eagles, an 11-6 record would still equal the Chiefs’ best-case scenario with the head-to-head favoring Buffalo. The 8-4 Jaguars are in a similar situation with the two Colts games and a trip to Denver but also home games against the Jets and Titans. Split with Indy and the Chiefs can’t beat them out for a playoff spot head to head.
But even if we consider Denver, New England, Buffalo, Jacksonville and the AFC North winner as out of reach for the Bills, we still have two spots within reach, which gives us a buffer even if the Jaguars are beaten out by Indy or Houston for the AFC South title. Finish 11-6 along with one of the Colts or Texans and Kansas City is in. Finish 10-7 and the Chiefs may be able to beat out one of those teams or the Chargers in a tiebreaker.
I’d back the Chiefs to make the playoffs with the state of the AFC above, and there are only three teams with point differentials better than them. All have injury concerns with the Bills losing players left and right on both sides of the ball, the Colts dealing with a quarterback playing through a leg injury and the Patriots facing key injuries on the offensive line. If I can get them around +800 to win the AFC, I think that’s a nice little sprinkle for those who may decide to pass on the playoffs bet.
Bet on the Chiefs to make the playoffs at BetMGM, where new Missouri users can get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn’t win:
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