Each Sunday during the season I will preview some of the bigger college football games early in the week, give my initial lean, and recommend to either bet it early or wait for a better line. Just for clarification, I will always mention if I already bet the game personally so there is no confusion.
My official conference championship plays will be out later in the week and I will also post all my picks in the SportsLine Discord as soon as I bet them. This article is more about giving advice so you can get the best number in the higher-profile games every Saturday.
Here are my early thoughts on the conference championship matchups.
Indiana Hoosiers (+6) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State and Indiana didn’t meet in the regular season but we get the No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup in the Big Ten Championship.
This line opened a little high at Ohio State -6 on a neutral field. We have already seen it drop to 5.5 at a couple of books. I expect the number to continue to drop throughout the week. The market is extremely high on both teams and I believe most people have these two rated closer than a six-point spread. I made Ohio State -3.5 in this game.
My advice is if you like Indiana, bet the Hoosiers now. If you are looking to back Ohio State, wait until later in the week. This is the one championship game where I see the line moving a couple of points. I wouldn’t be surprised if it closes closer to Indiana +3.5 by kickoff.
Bet: Indiana +6
BYU Cougars (+12.5) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
We have already seen throughout the season that the market is high on Texas Tech but not so such when it comes to BYU. We see that here with the opening number of 12.5. When the two teams met in Lubbock back on Nov. 8, the Red Raiders closed as 13.5-point favorites.
There is just a big gap between Texas Tech and every other Big 12 team in most people’s power rankings. I actually think Utah would have been a shorter underdog here at +10.5 or +11.5. We saw the line keep going up during the week the first time the two teams met and I expect a similar scenario here.
I don’t think you will get a better number than 12.5 with Texas Tech. I would bet the Red Raiders now. However, if you are looking to bet BYU, stay patient. I expect this line to reach at least 13.5 and possibly close at 14.5.
Wait: BYU +13.5 or better
Alabama Crimson Tide (+1.5) vs. Georgia Bulldogs
This is the toughest game to call early in the week. Georgia opened as a slight favorite on a neutral field and I agree with the number. However, I expect a lot of two way action on this game with sharp bettors backing both teams.
I can see a scenario though where the line flips and the Crimson Tide close as short favorites. Alabama has dominated this series of late, winning three straight and 10 of the last 11. While I believe Georgia is the better team right now, the Crimson Tide’s recent success in this series is hard to overlook.
Again, I don’t see this number moving much either way. If you like Alabama, I would probably grab +1.5 early. While it’s not a big edge, the line is more likely to trend towards the Tide being favorites than Georgia moving to -2.5.
Bet: Alabama +1.5
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