Virginia vs. Duke prediction, pick, early preview for 2025 ACC Championship Game

After all the tiebreaker scenarios have been unfurled, the ACC finally has its two teams locked into the championship game set for next Saturday night in Charlotte with Virginia and Duke clinching spots in Week 14.

Virginia concluded its regular season with a win against rival Virginia Tech, wrapping up a 10-2 regular season with a 7-1 conference record that kept the Wahoos at the top of the ACC standings. SMU also faced a win-and-in scenario heading into its finale at Cal, but a 38-35 defeat to the Bears opened the door to conference tiebreaker chaos.

SMU, Miami, Pitt, Georgia Tech and Duke finished in a five-way tie for second place in the ACC standings with 6-2 conference records. After all the tiebreakers were run, Duke emerged as the representative for the championship game, even as the Blue Devils have a 7-5 record overall that includes nonconference losses to Illinois, Tulane and UConn. The Blue Devils faced six of the top 11 teams in the league during its conference schedule, and that slate — combined with key wins — proved valuable when trying to figure out how to sort a five-way tie that had limited head-to-head results among the tied teams.

Of course, this is all occurring as Miami is left out of the conference championship game despite being the highest-ranked team in the league. The Hurricanes were impressive in a 38-7 win at Pitt on Saturday afternoon, leaving Miami at 10-2 overall but 6-2 in conference play. Mario Cristobal’s group could still potentially wind up in the College Football Playoff as an at-large team, but the path to the CFP as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions is closed with the results of Week 14.

But while Miami is left to make its case in the court of public opinion and hope to win over the favor of the selection committee, Virginia and Duke will have a shot to play their way into the College Football Playoff on the field. Let’s take a look at both teams as they each begin a busy week preparing for their chance at a conference championship.

What to know about Virginia

Tony Elliott entered the 2025 season with real job pressure after failing to make a bowl game in his first three seasons leading the program. He was not without support or resources, though, and instead of making dramatic changes to his coaching staff, they went into the transfer portal and added more than two dozen instant impact additions, including starting quarterback Chandler Morris. A home upset of Florida State, then undefeated and ranked in the top 10, brought national attention to the team’s strong start, but then adversity began to hit in the form of injuries and some midseason nail-biters.

Virginia went 4-2 in one-score games in 2025, including a run of three straight wins by a combined six points, often needing big plays late to secure the victory and keep the team’s postseason hopes alive. That was not the case, thankfully, over the last couple of weeks as Virginia closed out the regular season with a 17-point win against Duke and a 20-point win against Virginia Tech in the finale.

Chandler Morris is the key to a Virginia offense that entered Week 14 ranked third in the ACC in total offense (438.0 yards per game) and third in scoring offense (33.7 points per game). The experienced signal-caller stresses defenses with his ability to extend plays with his legs and make tough throws down the field. The Wahoos have also been solid defensively, ranking in the top half of the ACC in several key defensive categories, and found strength in the team’s depth as they sustained injuries to impact players like linebacker Kam Robinson. It’s not a team that’s overwhelmed opponents all season long, but it’s one that continues to find ways to win, and that confidence built up across the season is a dangerous strength to overcome in a one-game scenario like the conference title game.

What to know about Duke

Duke is back in the ACC Championship Game for the first time since 2013 after a roller-coaster season that saw the Blue Devils play as well as anyone on their schedule at times but also lack the consistency required to flirt with a 10-win season or a consistent ranking in the polls. The team is led by quarterback Darian Mensah, who entered Week 14 leading the ACC in passing yards per game (289.3) and passing touchdowns (26). Mensah transferred into the program in the offseason from Tulane, and that acquisition has paid off in a big way as he’s not only been the star for this season but expected to be a cornerstone of the 2026 squad as well.

Defensively, this has been a team that has not been as stout as you might expect given the background of Duke coach Manny Diaz. The Blue Devils rank in the bottom half of the ACC in both total defense (409.8 yards per game allowed) and scoring defense (33.3 points per game allowed), but with Mensah’s ability to guide the offense to the end zone, it’s a group that’s learned how to win shootouts rather than rock fights.

Things looked bleak for the Blue Devils’ postseason hopes after losing back-to-back games to UConn and Virginia, but only one of those games counted in the conference standings, and now Duke gets another crack at the Wahoos with even bigger stakes. If Duke can have better success on offense early in the game, this should be a team that can offer more resistance to the favorites than they did in their first meeting just a couple weeks ago.