Oscars 2026 Best Actress Predictions: Nominees & Winner

As the awards season ramps up, Best Actress looks like one of the most stacked categories at the Oscars 2026, making it even trickier to predict. But after Mikey Madison’s win last year, I’m happy to once again track this race and see how it unfolds, giving you ScreenRant‘s predictions for the category.

A year after the back-and-forth battle between Madison (Anora) and Demi Moore (The Substance), figuring out who the frontrunner is for Best Actress in 2026 may vary on the week. There’s a great wealth of extraordinary performances for the Academy to reward, including former winners, nominees, and those hoping for their first nomination.

This is a race that is still very much evolving, as some of the best movies of 2025 are finally arriving and giving people a chance to see performances that have been raved about since the festival circuit began. This includes the likes of Rose Byrne’s work in If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You and Emma Stone’s performance in Bugonia, which have been central to the discussion so far.

As the rest of the year plays out and award precursors heat up, the true contenders will be sorted out from now through January 22, 2026, when nominations are announced. Here’s how I see it right now, but keep checking back, as I will be updating this as the Oscars season continues to unfold.

Commentary and predictions updated November 28

The Best Actress Nomination Frontrunners

With a bit more uncertainty surrounding this race right now, we really have to lean on early reactions, a film’s overall Oscars potential, and history to help inform our decision. Here is my current Oscars 2026 Best Actress nominations prediction:

There has been no change to the top of these predictions. Former Oscar-nominee Jessie Buckley remains at the top of the pack, as Hamnet has positioned her as the performance to beat by all indications. She’s already secured recognition by the Gotham Awards and Astra Film Awards.

Similarly, Renate Reinsve is still the strongest contender beyond Buckley. She also earned an Astra Film Awards nomination, making the Best Actress in a Motion Picture Drama category a chance for her to usurp Buckley. While she didn’t get Oscar consideration for The Worst Person In The World, it’d be quite shocking if she were snubbed again for Sentimental Value.

The biggest riser in this update is Amanda Seyfried, who is only a few years removed from her Best Supporting Actress nomination for Mank. She was previously at five but now has Gotham and Astra nominations to back her case. Those are good signs that her highly praised lead performance has a strong foundation of support to drum up an Oscar nomination later on.

Emma Stone drops one spot (again) in this new update. There have been no detractors to her performance, but Bugonia has not managed to solidify its place as a legit Oscar contender. Stone missed a nomination at the Gotham Awards (even though Bugonia was nominated for Best Feature). She did pick up a nomination from Astra, keeping the two-time Oscar winner in the frontrunner section, for now.

Cynthia Erivo also remains a predicted nominee, even if her placement is down. She seemed like a shoo-in for a nomination ahead of Wicked: For Good‘s release, but the less enthusiastic response to the sequel has brought more doubt about her getting back-to-back Best Actress nominations.

Erivo’s performance is excellent, so Wicked 2‘s Oscar chances overall will determine how strongly she’s considered once again. If the movie slides out of Best Picture contention, which now appears at least plausible, then she could be usurped by one of the other actresses still in the mix.

Actresses Still In The Mix

With less than two months until the Oscar nominations are announced, the shape of the race allows us to shrink the pool of performances legitimately still in the mix. Sorry, Cate Blanchett (Father Mother Sister Brother), Jodie Foster (A Private Life), and June Squibb (Eleanor the Great), but you’ve been cut.

I’m also keeping Julia Garner (Weapons) and Eve Victor (Sorry, Baby) out despite their Astra nominations. That leaves us with 10 performances still hoping to break into the top five.

Speaking of the Astra nominations, Mackey, Roberts, Hudson, and Liu are the only ones who weren’t recognized there. Hudson’s lack of a nomination is the most surprising, considering there is a Comedy or Musical specific category. Rather than being on the cusp of an Oscar nomination, she may be further away from entering the top five than anticipated.

The star who appears the closest to jumping up a category is Chase Infiniti. Her breakout performance is worthy of recognition, but it’s unclear if voters will reward her now or hold off until she does it again. It could come down to just how well Once Battle After Another plays across the board. It will be a big contender, but will it be big enough that Infiniti secures a nomination?

Jennifer Lawrence and Sydney Sweeney are still looking to overcome bad box office headlines associated with their films to get some Oscar love. With Lawrence getting Gotham and Astra nominations, her chances remain solid, whereas the Astras became Sweeney’s first precursor nomination, keeping her afloat.

Rose Byrne and Tessa Thompson still hold great chances of getting their first Oscar nominations, too. Both were recognized at Gotham and Astra. Byrne probably has the better shot of the two of actually getting the Academy’s attention, as she’s been part of this race for nearly a year, once If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You had its Sundance premiere.

I also wouldn’t discount Laura Dern’s position in the race. Is This Thing On? seems likely to play very well with Academy voters, and with her also delivering a strong supporting performance in Jay Kelly, there’s a chance that this lead role gains steam as a way of recognizing the quality of her work overall this year. It’d be her second Best Actress Oscar nomination and fourth overall.

Support for Dern could pick up once Is This Thing On? releases in December, and the same is true for Liu and Mackey. Rosemead and Ella McCay‘s releases will help solidify their positions in the race, even if that means them falling out of contention altogether.

Predicted Best Actress Winner

It’s far too early to declare any race in the Oscars over, but it does feel like Best Actress already has a clear frontrunner in Jessie Buckley. Hamnet might be a movie with William Shakespeare, but it’s more focused on Agnes’ perspective. Buckley gives an incredibly emotional performance in the film, based on early reactions, that left many viewers in tears.

That type of response is powerful when it comes to the Oscars. Connecting with voters’ hearts on such a deep level can make her performance unforgettable. That’s why she’s already seen as such a definitive choice to be nominated. And while the other contenders have room to overtake her, this feels like Buckley’s award to lose.

The actress has been on the ascent since her breakout role in 2018’s Wild Rose and has played central roles in a few movies the Oscars recognized since then: The Lost Daughter and Women Talking. As she prepares to take a big swing in 2026 with The Bride!, becoming an Academy Award winner for Hamnet could make next year an unforgettable one for her.

Any of the other four predicted nominees could still pull ahead of her in the months ahead, depending on how the entire season plays out. An argument could be made that she’s peaking too early. But any pushback that has come for Hamnet has not been associated with Buckley’s performance. There’s nothing that’s happened to change her position.

As of right now, Buckley is my pick for the Oscars 2026 Best Actress winner. Maybe that will change, but maybe it won’t, and she’ll steamroll her way towards the Academy Award.

ScreenRant‘s additional Oscars predictions:

8/10

Location

Los Angeles, CA

Dates

March 15, 2026

Website

https://www.oscars.org/