NFL Thanksgiving bold predictions: Mahomes rattled, Burrow takes down Ravens

There’s nothing more American on Thanksgiving than spending time with family, going back and forth from the table or couch with multiple plates of food and watching three games of NFL action.

The first course will be the 23rd Turkey Day meeting between the NFC North’s Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions, the most-played matchup in NFL Thanksgiving Day history. The league’s midday action will feature two of the biggest brands in football — the Kansas City Chiefs and the Dallas Cowboys. A fun day of football will then be wrapped up with an AFC North rivalry showdown between Joe Burrow’s Cincinnati Bengals and Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens. 

What thrilling, unforeseen events could occur in each of the three games? Here’s one bold prediction for all three courses on the Thanksgiving slate.   

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Bet NFL games on Thanksgiving at FanDuel and get $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager.

Packers hold Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs to under 60 yards rushing

Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs enters Week 13 as the reigning NFC Offensive Player of the Week — and for good reason. He totaled 219 yards and two rushing touchdowns on only 15 carries (14.6 yards per carry), plus 45 receiving yards and a touchdown on 11 catches, in Detroit’s 34-27 overtime win over the New York Giants. The game-winning score was his 69-yard touchdown run on the first play of overtime.

Gibbs enters Turkey Day on fire. However, the Green Bay Packers will extinguish that and hold him under 60 rushing yards — something that has happened only four times this season, including his 19-yard performance on nine carries in Detroit’s 27-13 Week 1 loss at Green Bay, his worst game as an NFL starter.

Despite Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones’ insistence that All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons lacks the ability to defend the run, Parsons’ Packers defense ranks sixth against it in 2025, allowing just 96.5 rushing yards per game. Green Bay also benefits from facing a banged-up Lions offensive line that will be without starting center Graham Glasgow (knee). Left tackle Taylor Decker (shoulder), right tackle Penei Sewell (ankle) and right guard Tate Ratledge (knee) were all limited in practice and are listed as questionable for Thursday.

Parsons, explosive linebacker Edgerrin Cooper and company should have what it takes to significantly limit Gibbs in a season sweep of the back-to-back NFC North champions.

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Tyler Sullivan

Cowboys defense intercepts Patrick Mahomes multiple times

Yes, Kansas City Chiefs three-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in football today, but the Dallas Cowboys defense — yes, the Dallas Cowboys defense — will make Mahomes look very mortal.

Dallas does enter Thanksgiving as the NFL’s second-worst scoring defense (28.5 points allowed per game), but a closer look at the past two weeks reveals a different unit. The Cowboys’ defensive personnel has changed dramatically following trades for Jets All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and Bengals veteran linebacker Logan Wilson, as well as the returns to health of electric linebacker DeMarvion Overshown and rookie third-round cornerback Shavon Revel Jr. 

Since Week 11, when all four made their 2025 Cowboys season debuts, Dallas has been the best run defense in football (45.0 rushing yards allowed per game), even while facing two standout running backs: 2025 sixth overall pick Ashton Jeanty of the Raiders and 2024 Offensive Player of the Year Saquon Barkley of the Eagles.

* On bye week in Week 10

Forcing the Chiefs to become one-dimensional will allow Williams, three-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kenny Clark and defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa to pin their ears back against Mahomes, who will be without Pro Bowl right guard Trey Smith (ankle). The pressure Dallas generates should result in turnovers, with 2023 NFL interceptions leader DaRon Bland — along with another Cowboys defender — each coming away with an interception against the two-time league MVP on Thursday. 

Bengals’ Joe Burrow throws for at least 300 yards and 3 TDs in return to snap Ravens’ five-game winning streak

The Ravens went from being left for dead at 1–5 to now sitting at 6–5 and tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers atop the AFC North. The reason? Since Week 8, they’ve fielded the best defense in football, ranking either first or tied for first in scoring defense (13.4 points allowed per game), third-down defense (26.6% conversion rate), red-zone defense (30.8% touchdown rate) and takeaways (10).

Only two quarterbacks have thrown for three or more touchdowns against Baltimore this season — Patrick Mahomes (four in Week 4) and C.J. Stroud (four in Week 5). Josh Allen is the only quarterback to surpass 300 passing yards against the Ravens this season, doing so all the way back in Week 1.

However, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow will throw for at least 300 yards and three passing touchdowns in his return from a turf toe injury that has kept him sidelined since Week 3.

Cincinnati wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, Burrow’s top target, returns from a one-game suspension for spitting on Steelers cornerback Jalen Ramsey, and he’ll be playing with extra edge — fueled by the layoff and Burrow’s return. Bengals running back Chase Brown enters on a five-game streak of at least 100 scrimmage yards, tied for the longest in franchise history since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger. 

With those two weapons, and even with No. 2 receiver Tee Higgins sidelined by a concussion, Burrow is primed to light up the Ravens for at least 300 yards and three touchdowns to close out the NFL action on Thanksgiving.