Notre Dame’s dominant win over Syracuse a direct message to CFP committee

In an effort to solidify its College Football Playoff case — and continue to dominate the increasingly important game-control metric — ninth-ranked Notre Dame left little doubt in Saturday’s record-setting 70–7 rout of Syracuse.

It’s precisely why, for three straight weeks, the selection committee has beat the drum for the Fighting Irish (9–2) as one of the nation’s most complete at-large hopefuls.

The Irish scored 21 points before taking its first offensive snap and has now won 19 straight regular-season games when facing elimination from the playoff discussion — many in blowout fashion. If there were lingering questions about why the committee ranked Notre Dame as the second-highest two-loss team this week, those were answered in South Bend.

This looked like a Bowl Championship Series-era games, back when margin of victory was incentivized by the computers. Notre Dame’s starters retreated to the sideline after the first series of the third quarter, shortly after Jeremiyah Love’s 68-yard touchdown run — his third of the afternoon — stretched the lead to 56–0.

The win adds another common-opponent data point for the committee when comparing Notre Dame and No. 13 Miami, which beat Syracuse 38–10 earlier this season. For now, Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame in the opener doesn’t come into play because the teams haven’t been rated in the same tier in recent rankings.

How does the committee distinguish between the Fighting Irish and Hurricanes? New committee chair Hunter Yurachek explained earlier this week, before Miami’s 34–17 win at Virginia Tech.

“I think there’s some other factors where you have Utah, BYU and Alabama in between Notre Dame and Miami,” Yurachek said. “As we set up the pools to do our selection process, Miami and Notre Dame have not been grouped in the same pools to have that direct head-to-head comparison, where you would really use that metric to separate one team from the next.

“So I think it’s the separation you have between those teams, similar to the separation you have right now between a Vanderbilt and Texas, where you have a head-to-head metric as well.”

Miami led throughout its win over the Hokies, though it was only a 10-point game in the final minute before quarterback Carson Beck hit Malachi Toney on a fourth-and-2 touchdown pass from the 20-yard line with 20 seconds left.

Hurricanes coach Mario Cristobal was asked afterward whether the score was an attempt at style points.

“If people are going to play man coverage and load the box, it’s not fair to our players to just sit there and run it in there,” Cristobal said. “We’re going to stay aggressive. We feel like we almost didn’t get to play an entire game. When you have eight possessions, you take advantage of them. We only had eight possessions. I think we scored on six of eight.”

Playoff metrics lead discussion

BYU and Utah are the teams sandwiched between Alabama and Miami in the rankings and behind Notre Dame. Utah doesn’t appear to have a path with Saturday’s matchup with Kansas State and next week’s with Kansas remaining and one-loss BYU may have to win the Big 12 to secure a spot when considering the metrics.

While the committee does not reveal their preferred metrics system, we know game control, strength of record and strength of schedule are weighted factors in the discussion. A new metric called “record strength” was also adopted this season to further emphasize strength of schedule in the selection process. 

The following numbers were from ESPN’s Football Power Index heading into Saturday’s games:

Game control remains Notre Dame’s strongest metric and is a primary reason the Fighting Irish are still in the first-round home-game discussion despite two losses. A win in next weekend’s finale against Stanford all but locks in a playoff appearance, but they’ll still need help from Mississippi State (against Ole Miss), Washington (against Oregon) or LSU (against Oklahoma) during rivalry weekend to move up.

No. 8 Oklahoma’s win over No. 22 Missouri in Week 13 will keep the Sooners ahead of Notre Dame on Tuesday night. And No. 10 Alabama could have a chance to jump the Irish during conference championship weekend if the Crimson Tide beat Auburn next weekend and reach Atlanta on Dec. 6.

The committee no longer has to justify Notre Dame’s ranking or dance around the head-to-head dilemma with Miami. Heading into the final weekend of the regular season, the Fighting Irish look like an elite football team at this juncture, and they’ve caught fire at the right time.