NHL Panic Meter: Why Maple Leafs, Oilers are already in big trouble

With the first quarter of the 2025-26 season in the rearview mirror, some preseason playoff hopefuls find themselves in a bit of trouble. Which teams should be hitting the panic button, and which teams shouldn’t sweat a slow start?

Now that we have a big enough sample size, I’ve broken out my handy Panic Meter to help teams determine exactly how worried they should be. I took a look under the hood at some of the more disappointing squads around the league to see whether their issues are here to stay.

In the case of teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers, they had real hopes of a deep playoff run. At the moment, neither team is in a playoff spot, and the all-important date of American Thanksgiving is around the corner. If you’re not in the playoffs then, history says you have about a three-in-four shot of missing out entirely.

Other teams, like the New York Rangers and Florida Panthers, haven’t necessarily been terrible. They have just been stuck in neutral, and the Eastern Conference is deep enough that their palms might be sweating. Can those two hit high gear before they get left in the dust?

Let’s scan six teams with the Panic Meter to see just how nervous each one should be with about 62 games remaining.

Toronto Maple Leafs

I’m sure the last thing any Maple Leafs fan wants to read about is Mitch Marner, but I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the team is struggling without him. Toronto avoided the cap crunch that would have accompanied re-signing Marner, but at what cost? Marner is an elite player in all three zones, and the Leafs miss his presence in all situations.

Of course, pinning all of Toronto’s struggles on the loss of Marner would take a lot of well-deserved heat off the defense. An aging defensive core (outside of Morgan Rielly and Oliver Ekman-Larsson) is struggling just to tread water at five-on-five. The most worrisome development has been the decline and health of Christopher Tanev. The 35-year-old is banged up right now, but even before the injury, his early underlying numbers were troublesome.

To top it all off, the goaltending hasn’t been able to cover up any mistakes. Anthony Stolarz and Cayden Primeau have combined to allow 9.15 goals above average, per Natural Stat Trick. Maybe the return of Joseph Woll stabilizes things there.

The Maple Leafs still have talent, especially at the top of the lineup, and I still think they should be a playoff team. That said, this group looks pretty pedestrian right now. Even if they can reach the postseason, Toronto looks to be a tier or two below true contenders. Panic level: 7.5/10

Edmonton Oilers

It feels like the Oilers have been here before — because they have. In each of the last two seasons, Edmonton has looked like a major disappointment before Thanksgiving, but then the team flips a switch and goes into Death Star mode. Can the Oilers do it again this year?

The main difference between the prior two seasons and this one is that the current iteration of the Oilers is subpar at five-on-five. Edmonton is 23rd in the NHL with a five-on-five expected goals share of 47.9%. Perhaps even more surprising is that the Oilers can’t generate consistent offense at 2.95 xGF/60 min, which ranks 24th in the league.

Most of the problems are rather familiar. For starters, the goaltending outright stinks. Stuart Skinner has a .882 save percentage and has allowed 5.88 goals above average. That looks like Patrick Roy compared to Calvin Pickard, who has an .851 save percentage and has allowed 8.91 goals above average, per Natural Stat Trick.

The other glaring issues are a lack of depth scoring behind the top five forwards, and depth defensemen that are getting caved in at even strength. Edmonton desperately needs to add another middle-six forward, and someone outside of Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard have to step up on the blue line.

We’ve seen this movie in Edmonton before, but the three-quel is a little scarier. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl won’t let this team sink, but there are very real red flags. Panic level: 6/10

New York Rangers

The home and road splits for the Rangers are outright comical. New York is one of the NHL’s best team on the road, but the team cannot buy a win at Madison Square Garden. I’m not sure whether the Rangers just prefer the crispy bedsheets of the Ritz-Carlton to those in their own home, but something is up with them.

On the whole, I think New York is a pretty good team. Its five-on-five numbers are rock solid, and the 9-1-1 road record proves the Rangers are capable of winning games in bunches. The bottom line is that they’re shooting 5.46% inside the not-so-friendly confines of MSG. That almost certainly won’t continue for all 41 games.

Let’s chalk this weird start off to a statistical anomaly. After all, if the Rangers were even a slightly below average team at home, they would be near the top of the standings. Mike Sullivan’s squad should be just fine, and I expect it to be battling atop the Metro Division soon. Panic level: 2.5/10

Florida Panthers

With Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk out long-term to start the season, everyone knew the Panthers would need to tread water for the first half of the season. They’ve managed to do that, even if it hasn’t always been pretty.

For starters, Brad Marchand and Sam Reinhart are the only two players scoring goals with any level of consistency. Those two have combined for 24 goals, which is 41.4% of the team’s total thus far. No other player has more than five. Carter Verhaeghe is off to an excruciatingly slow start there with two goals in 20 games, but his 4.3% shooting percentage is almost nine full points below his career average.

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The biggest concern for this team is in goal. Sergei Bobrovsky has not been very good to this point, and that needs to change if the Panthers are going to three-peat. His 1.30 goals allowed above average place him at 47th in the league. That won’t get it done, especially without Barkov and Tkachuk.

Tkachuk is coming back, and these Panthers have proven they can step up when it matters most. While Bobrovsky’s play might be an issue, Florida is still working its way up to wagon status. After all, three consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearances can take their toll. Panic level: 2/10

After Jim Montgomery took over behind the bench last season, he transformed the Blues into one of the league’s best defensive teams. The team is still relatively stout in that area, but it hasn’t translated to wins, and St. Louis is now in a deep hole. At the risk of being too reductive, I think you can place a vast majority of the blame at the feet of the goaltenders.

Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer have been arguably the worst goalie tandem in the NHL to this point. They’ve combined to allow 14.9 goals above average and have a combined .865 save percentage, per Natural Stat Trick. That would sink The Red Army, let alone this Blues club.

Outside of the crease, there are a few players off to slow starts. Pavel Buchnevich, Dylan Holloway and Justin Faulk come to mind there. At the very least, the process still looks good for Holloway, but the other two are legitimately concerning.

Goaltending is a fickle thing. It’s tough to predict from game-to-game — and especially month-to-month. That said, it’s tough to see Binnington and Hofer getting enough mojo back to make St. Louis a real threat in the West. Panic level: 6.5/10