The Six Pack: Picks for USC-Oregon, Oklahoma-Missouri and lock of Week 13

We are running out of time. Every season seems to fly by, but the end of the 2025 regular season snuck up on me this year. It wasn’t until last week that it dawned on me we only had two full Saturdays of action left. Now we’re down to one.

With Thanksgiving next week, we’ll see a heavy slate of Black Friday games, which waters down the Saturday schedule. Where did the year go? Where did The Six Pack’s money go? Well, that last question is easy to answer: down the drain. We couldn’t even go 3-3 last week, though we would have if Bill Belichick and Jake Dickert hadn’t gotten into a timeout battle at the end of their game that led to Wake Forest scoring a touchdown with 22 seconds left instead of kneeling the clock out.

Hey, maybe we’ll go 12-0 these next two weeks and get out of the hole before bowl season. 

Games of the Week

TV: CBS | Live stream: CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App (free), Paramount+ Premium

No. 15 USC at No. 7 Oregon: An absolutely massive matchup in a weekend short on them. USC is in a spot where its only realistic hope of reaching the College Football Playoff is winning out. It also has a path to a Big Ten title if it does so, though it’d need help elsewhere. The Ducks are not in a position where they have to win out, but a loss to either USC or Washington next week would put them in a precarious position. One they almost certainly want to avoid.

So we know that we’re going to get everything both teams have in this one. The problem is that both teams have been dealing with injuries, and we don’t know who will be available, and we don’t know how healthy they’ll be if they do play. The good news for Oregon is that, if they remain without Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. this week, they’ve proven they’re just as happy to pound the rock in the run game. This is a team that’s second in EPA per rush nationally and fifth in explosive rush rate.

They’ll be facing a USC defense that has not been solid against the run. The Trojans’ defense ranks 119th nationally in success rate against the run and 126th in EPA per rush allowed. So even if Oregon is healthy, I expect a heavy dose of Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. here.

The other problem facing USC is that, for all the focus on how physical they are, they’ve struggled mightily on the road all year. The drop-off on the defensive side of the ball hasn’t been too drastic, but offensively, this is a different team outside The Coliseum. Jayden Maiava has struggled in particular, so going on the road to play at Autzen Stadium, I don’t have the utmost confidence in Maiva to make the plays necessary to do what the Trojans need to pull off the upset. Still, in the end, the spread feels a little too large. So, given I expect Oregon to lean on its rushing attack and that the USC offense will struggle, I’d rather make a play on the total, which feels a bit too high. The Pick: Under 59.5 (-112) at Draftkings

No. 22 Missouri at No. 8 Oklahoma: The Oklahoma offense did not play well in last week’s win over Alabama, but the Sooners didn’t need it to. The defense carried the load, as it has most of the season, and that will likely continue this weekend. The Sooners will be happy to return home knowing they only need to win these final games of the season to get to the playoff. They’ll be facing a Missouri team that could have Beau Pribula back in action for the first time since the Vanderbilt loss a month ago.

I don’t know whether that’s a good or bad thing for Missouri. Pribula was carted off with a serious ankle injury. If he’s back, he’s coming in cold against what might be the best defense in the nation, and if he’s in any way limited by his ankle, you’re limiting a part of what makes Pribula dangerous as a quarterback. That said, while Eli Drinkwitz has been complimentary of Matt Zollers’ performance in Pribula’s stead, I don’t have to be as polite. He hasn’t been good, and given how he performed against a Mississippi State defense that’s been one of the SEC’s worst, he isn’t likely to tear the Sooners apart.

All of which leads me to believe the Tigers won’t score many points here. But I’m not all that confident in Oklahoma’s offense, either. The Missouri defense may not be at the same elite level as Oklahoma’s, but it’s pretty damn good itself, and if it can limit the Oklahoma rushing attack, it stands a strong chance of turning this one into an ugly affair. Which is what I think happens. The Pick: Under 42.5 (-110) at Fanduel

Lock of the Week

Washington State at James Madison: The CFP selection committee sent a loud message to James Madison this week. They’d rather have Tulane, a team with a 22-point loss on its resume, in the field than a one-loss Sun Belt champion. I’m not here to argue whether they’re right or wrong in the assessment. What matters for our purposes is that James Madison knows that the only way it’s going to earn any respect from the committee is if it continues winning and blowing teams out in the process.

The Dukes have a chance to do that here. Washington State has plenty to play for. It’s 5-5 and needs another win to earn bowl eligibility. It’s also been a pain in the butt in these situations already this year. The Cougars made cross-country trips to Ole Miss and Virginia in consecutive games, but while they lost both, the two losses came by five points combined. The difference this week is that I don’t know how focused on the Cougars either the Rebels or Cavaliers were in those games (Ole Miss had Georgia on deck, while Virginia had a big road game against UNC). James Madison is locked in here.

Also, Wazzu has a home game against Oregon State next week in the second leg of the Pac-12 Championship. They lost the first. I don’t think Washington State punts on this game, but I do think if the Cougars fall behind early, we could see them pack it up and get ready for next week. And even if both teams go all out for four quarters, I think the Dukes can cover. The Pick: James Madison -13.5 (-110) at Fanduel

Underhogs of the Week

Arkansas at No. 17 Texas: Is Arkansas the best two-win team in the country? I certainly think so. One of my favorite stats of the season so far is that the Razorbacks are 2-8 on the year, but have a point differential of +18 on the season. And that includes their 43-point loss to Notre Dame! The Hogs are 0-6 in the SEC, but haven’t lost any conference game by more than nine points. Their average losing margin has been 4.2 points. They don’t win, but they score enough points to hang around against everybody, which makes them extremely dangerous.

And they’re dangerous here against a Texas team reeling from a 25-point loss at Georgia last week. I can’t overlook the fact that this Longhorns defense has allowed at least 31 points in its last three games for an average of 34.7 per game. Arkansas’ offense has some similarities to Mississippi State’s, and the Bulldogs put up 38 on the Horns. I expect we see a much better offensive performance from Texas this week than the one we saw last week, but I also think Arkansas does that thing where it just hangs around. The Pick: Arkansas +8.5 (-108) at Draftkings

Rock Fight of the Week

Minnesota at Northwestern: These are two of the slower-moving teams in the country. In fact, according to my pace metrics, nobody is slower than Minnesota. Furthermore, both of these teams have been moving more slowly as the year goes on. That’s just how things work in the Midwest as fall begins to turn into winter. The days get shorter, and so do the games.

Neither team moves quickly, nor do they produce many explosive plays. They kind of just plod down the field, and while they can reach the red zone, when they get there, they don’t score nearly enough touchdowns. Both rank outside the top 80 when it comes to points per red zone possession. Finally, the rosters are similar. They’re just a good matchup for one another! This will be another of those 1-0 pitchers’ duels at Wrigley Field, where the only run scored comes via two errors and a wild pitch. The Pick: Under 40.5 (-110) at Draftkings

Upset of the Week

No. 18 Michigan at Maryland: The Six Pack has been getting killed on the Upset of the Week this year. It’s 1-11, and if we removed it from the column entirely, we’d be 32-28 overall and only down 1.19 units. Still not good, but a whole hell of a lot better than where we are.

So if we’re going to make up some ground, we need to take bigger swings, but ones that are realistic. This one is far more realistic than you might realize. I do think it’s important for Maryland that Mike Locksley’s future has been settled. There’s no more mystery. He’ll be back next season, and that could help settle the locker room. There’s also the fact Michigan has been a bad team on the road this year.

You might remember the Wolverines turned the ball over five times and needed a last-second field goal to beat Northwestern at Wrigley Field last week. You may also remember their road losses to Oklahoma and USC, as well as a close call against Nebraska. I know Maryland isn’t as good as any of those teams, but the other thing we have to consider here is next week. That’s when Michigan plays Ohio State. We all know how important that game is to the Wolverines, and how they’d love nothing more than to beat Ohio State again. This wouldn’t be the first time we saw a team get caught looking ahead to its rival now, would it? Finally, Maryland needs to win out to get to a bowl game. If they win this one, Michigan State at home is extremely winnable next week, too. You’re going to get a home run effort from the Terps here. Michigan better deliver the knockout early, because if it doesn’t, this one could be dicey down the stretch. The Pick: Maryland (+460) at Fanduel

Who will win and cover in each Week 13 college football game? Legendary Vegas expert Bruce Marshall is on a 33-22 roll on college football picks. Visit SportsLine now to see all his college football picks.