A run of eight consecutive seasons of playoff berths — including four pennants and the first two World Series titles in franchise history — ended for the Houston Astros in 2025. They went 87-75, missing the postseason by a tiebreaker after finishing with an identical record to the Tigers, who ended up in the ALDS.
So while the Astros certainly aren’t used to missing the playoffs, the season wasn’t disastrous enough to signal the need for a teardown or anything like that. They’ve taken steps backward for sure, though. They had been in the ALCS seven straight seasons until losing in the Wild Card Series in 2024 and then missed the playoffs entirely last year. A team that won 100 games in four out of five full seasons went down to 90 wins, 88 and 87, respectively, in the last three.
Not only that, but the Astros have been losing championship core players for years. Last offseason, it was Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This time around, All-Star starting pitcher Framber Valdez hits free agency. So what’s next?
Needs
First off, they need better health. Yordan Alvarez only played in 48 games and closer Josh Hader was hurt late. In fact, most of their starting pitchers were hurt at some point. Ronel Blanco won’t be back until late in the season in a best-case scenario, but the Astros right now have a full rotation of Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, Spencer Arrighetti, Jason Alexander and Lance McCullers Jr.
That doesn’t exactly scream stable of aces. Brown broke through last season and should be considered a frontline starter moving forward, but the rest of the group is riddled with question marks.
The offense last season wasn’t the powerful Astros’ offense we grew accustomed to seeing for years. They finished 21st in runs scored and 15th in slugging percentage out of the 30 MLB teams. As noted, a full season from Alvarez will certainly help matters there. Jeremy Peña was having a great season before rib and oblique injuries. And then there’s the return of Carlos Correa, who the Astros traded for at the deadline.
Maybe those things fix the offense as a whole. Christian Walker at first base didn’t help, though, and he’s going to be 35 next season. Jose Altuve is likely in his decline, too. Cam Smith getting another crack at the big-league level and growing in his second season is a possibility to help mitigate some of the downside.
Possible targets
If the Astros aren’t willing to pay Valdez, we could probably eliminate from the bidding for fellow free-agent starters Dylan Cease and Ranger Suárez. Then again, the Astros have been connected to Cease in trade rumors before and could still make a run at him.
Would Michael King fall into the range where ownership is willing to pay for a starting pitcher? It seems possible. The 30-year-old right-hander has only one full season as a starter under his belt. He made 15 starts last year. He’s been good, though, pitching to a 3.10 ERA (134 ERA+) with 277 strikeouts in 247 innings since converting to a full-time starter with the Padres.
In looking at cheaper options to help fill out some depth and eat the necessary innings to get through a season of contention, perhaps Merrill Kelly would help there. How about yet another reunion with Justin Verlander? He’s a free agent again and we know there’s plenty of mutual admiration there.
On the offense side, Pete Alonso is a fit here depending on the price. He’d love hitting fly balls into the Crawford Boxes in left field and he seems to be open to a lot more time at DH. This would require the Astros shedding some money, probably, and that could happen with a few trades (we’ll get to that). The lefty-righty power combo in the middle of the lineup with Alvarez and Alonso could be pretty stellar, especially if Peña has another good year as a table-setter with the likes of Correa and Altuve adding beef to the middle of the order.
If the Astros explore the trade market, Brendan Donovan or Brandon Lowe are possible targets. They’d be slotted at second base, which would again move Altuve to left field and put Alvarez in lockdown in the DH spot (or the duo could share left field and DH equally). The main thing with Donovan and Lowe is that both hit left-handed and the Astros are very right-heavy other than Alvarez.
Trade chips
Might Isaac Paredes be on the move again? The Cubs grabbed him during the 2024 season and then dealt him to the Astros last offseason as part of the package for Tucker. Astros general manager Dana Brown has shut down Paredes rumors to this point, but that can always change.
“He was one of the best guys at seeing pitches and working counts and it’s one of the reasons why we went out and traded for him,” Brown said at the GM meetings (via Houston Chronicle). “We need that value in our lineup. It’s the exact direction we’re trying to take it. We feel like if we trade him it would be weakening our lineup. So right now, we have no interest in trading him.”
Walker could also be traded and, if that happens, the Astros could move Paredes to first base. Of course, if the Astros are able to deal both and save enough money to their liking, they could make a run at Alonso. I’m aware of Brown’s comments, but there are always moving pieces in the offseason that can change the calculus.
If the Astros are really in a bind to clear just a few million bucks, setup man Bryan Abreu could be a possibility. He’s set to make something like $6 million in arbitration next year and then hits free agency after the 2026 season. They already shipped Mauricio Dubón to the Atlanta Braves for Nick Allen, another light-hitting infielder who makes a few bucks less than the incumbent.
Add Comment