Best NFL Week 12 picks & predictions: Why we’re backing these rookie QBs

We should’ve seen this coming. After pointing out how we’ve turned a corner in the past two weeks, entering Week 11, we cratered. 

I was on the wrong side of a couple of heartbreakers over the Sunday slate that led me to a 4-11 ATS record (8-7 straight up) overall. Gross. The Commanders couldn’t do us a favor and hang on to pull off the upset over Miami in Madrid, the hook burned us with our Packers -7.5 bet, and both Houston and Baltimore laid eggs against inferior competition (albeit fending off the outright upsets). 

That leaves a bitter taste, but it wasn’t as dire when it came to my five locks of the week, as I went 2-3 ATS overall. Not great, but not catastrophic either. All we can do now is pick ourselves up by our bootstraps, leave those losses in the past, and dial up some winners in Week 12. We’ll start, as always, by highlighting my five locks of the week, which feature two rookie quarterbacks — including Shedeur Sanders — pulling off outright wins. 

Teams on bye in Week 12: Denver, Miami, Los Angeles (Chargers) and Washington

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2025 record

Locks of the Week ATS: 30-25-0
ATS: 73-91-0
ML: 102-61-1

• Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)

The Bills needed Josh Allen to put on the Superman cape and tally six total touchdowns to fend off the Buccaneers in Week 11. While the defending NFL MVP is certainly capable of putting together a similar performance at a moment’s notice, he’ll likely face much tougher sledding in this head-to-head against Houston. The Texans boast arguably the best defense in the NFL, leading the league in points allowed (16.3 points per game) and total yards allowed (258.1 yards per game). They’ve also allowed less than 20 points in seven of their 10 games in 2025, creating a difficult path forward offensively for Buffalo. 

On the other side, Davis Mills (filling in again for the injured C.J. Stroud) won’t face as difficult a unit in the Bills defense. Sean McDermott’s defense has given up at least 30 points in back-to-back games and has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, allowing teams to average 153 yards per game on the ground (31st). 

Buffalo is 1-3 ATS in prime time this season, and expect another closely contested game again here as we begin Week 12 on Thursday night. 

Projected score: Bills 24, Texans 20
The pick: Texans +5.5

• Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubo, try for free)

The Falcons are in a bad way at the moment. The club is coming off back-to-back overtime losses (one in Germany) over the last two weeks, extending its losing streak to five games. To make matters worse, the Falcons placed quarterback Michael Penix Jr. on IR due to a knee injury, and will now have to start Kirk Cousins going forward. Cousins looked old coming in under duress last week, and the team is averaging just 20.2 points per game with him as the starter, dating to last season. If that persists — particularly with wideout Drake London (knee) likely not going in this game — and the Falcons defense continues to surrender 27.8 points per game and 399.6 total yards of offense as they have during this losing skid, New Orleans has a lane to its third win of the season. As for the Saints, Tyler Shough played well last time out and will be coming off a Week 11 bye, so he’s had time to prepare for this divisional matchup.  

Projected score: Saints 23, Falcons 21
The pick: Saints -1.5

The big storyline in this game is Shedeur Sanders getting his first career start after Dillon Gabriel landed in concussion protocol last week. Sanders didn’t look good when he came in for Gabriel last week, but this pick isn’t really about who is or is not under center for Cleveland. Instead, it has everything to do with the Raiders, who look lost. Offensively, they are 30th in total yards per game and tied for 30th in points per game. Now, they are expected to move the ball against a Browns defense that is second in the NFL in total yards per game allowed. Not only that, but Geno Smith currently leads the NFL with 13 interceptions this season and will face a Cleveland defense that has recorded 10 takeaways over the last four games. Their knack for creating turnovers will likely continue against Smith, which should make life wildly easier for Sanders and the offense to put up points with short fields. 

Projected score: Browns 20, Raiders 16
The pick: Browns +3

• Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubo, try for free)

If you’ve followed along this season, you’ll know that I’m not the biggest believer in the Packers. They’ve consistently played down to their competition, which has made games much closer than they should be. While that has me dubious on their chances of making a strong push in the playoffs if/when they get there, I think they’re a safe bet against the number in Week 12. Why? Because for as much as I am skeptical about Green Bay, I’m even more so when it comes to J.J. McCarthy. There were points last week in Minnesota’s loss to Chicago where it felt like McCarthy could end up being benched. He’s completing just 52.9% of his passes this season and is the first quarterback since Zach Wilson (not great company) to have an interception in five straight games to begin his career. 

That’s a long way of saying that I don’t expect much from the Vikings offense, especially against a defense that is allowing the third-fewest yards per play (4.7) this season. 

Projected score: Packers 27, Vikings 17
The pick: Packers -6.5

I don’t see how Cincinnati keeps up. New England is riding an 8-game winning streak, and Drake Maye is playing at an MVP level, leading the NFL in completion percentage (71.9%) and passing yards (2,836) entering Week 12. Now, he’ll face off against a Bengals defense that is giving up 33.4 points per game this season. That’s not only the highest in the league in 2025, it’s the most points per game allowed in a season since the 1966 New York Giants. They’ve also given up at least 27 points and 340 yards of offense in nine straight games (longest streak in the NFL since 1970). As the Patriots are projected to dominate on offense, the Bengals offense will have another hand tied behind their back with Ja’Marr Chase suspended for this game after spitting on Jalen Ramsey. This feels like a double-digit win and a ninth consecutive victory for Mike Vrabel’s club. 

Projected score: Patriots 30, Bengals 20
The pick: Patriots -8.5

Rest of the bunch

Colts at Chiefs
Projected score: Colts 27, Chiefs 24
The pick: Colts +3.5

Giants at Lions
Projected score: Lions 30, Giants 17
The pick: Lions -10.5

Jets at Ravens
Projected score: Ravens 33, Jets 16
The pick: Ravens -13.5

Steelers at Bears
Projected score: Bears 24, Steelers 20
The pick: Bears -3

Seahawks at Titans
Projected score: Seahawks 30, Titans 14
The pick: Seahawks -13.5

Jaguars at Cardinals
Projected score: Cardinals 27, Jaguars 24
The pick: Cardinals +2.5

Eagles at Cowboys
Projected score: Eagles 30, Cowboys 20
The pick: Eagles -3.5

Buccaneers at Rams
Projected score: Rams 24, Buccaneers 23
The pick: Buccaneers +6.5

Panthers at 49ers
Projected score: 49ers 33, Panthers 24
The pick:  49ers -7