We’ve reached Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season, and we have a pretty good idea of who the good and bad teams in the league are by this point. If we’ve figured that out, so too have sportsbooks, and we’re seeing some pretty sizable point spreads this week. NFL betting expert Jeff Hochman has identified a betting trend involving underdogs that he’s shared for Week 12, and it involves games with lower totals, or the over/under. Here, Hochman breaks down the criteria for this trend while sharing which games qualify this week.
NFL underdogs with low totals (over/under 42 or less)
- Win Rate: 205-150-10 ATS (57.7%)
- Sample Size: Since 2018
- Criteria: Underdogs of 6.5 or more points with a total of 42 or less
- Edge: Weeks 10 through 15
Why this works
My job involves researching the best NFL systems that have a proven track record of generating profits. I focus on systems with a win rate of at least 60%. There were no such systems this week, but I did find one that’s close.
When the total is 42 points or lower, the betting market expects a defensive battle or limitations in offensive performance. However, sportsbooks often do not adjust point spreads to reflect this lower scoring expectation. A larger point spread in a game with a total of 42 points or less represents a significantly greater percentage of the expected final score compared to a 6.5-point spread in a game with a total of 50 points. The betting market prices in the favorite’s superiority as if normal scoring will occur, but the low total constrains how many points the superior team can actually generate. This has always been one of the sharpest NFL betting systems for underdogs, especially as the season progresses.
Week 12 qualifiers
Tennessee Titans +13.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks | Confidence: 3 out of 5
Following a tough road loss to the Los Angeles Rams in which Seattle committed four turnovers and recorded only 272 total yards, the Seahawks now risk underestimating a historically struggling Titans team. This marks Seattle’s first back-to-back road games of the season, and the Seahawks have gone 5-0 against the spread in their last five games. Teams on an ATS winning streak of five or more that then play their second consecutive road game as double-digit favorites have always been a profitable spot to take the home underdog.
I am not going to try to sell you based purely on all the predictive metrics. They all point to an easy win and cover for the road team. While this is a double-digit underdog, the ultra-low total of 40.5 creates a system edge. Games with totals this low rarely produce the wide margins the spread suggests. Even though the Titans are inferior talent-wise, the defensive slugfest nature of this matchup makes the 13.5 points difficult to cover. Do the Seahawks have enough incentive to pour it on late if they are up by 7-13 points in the fourth quarter? I am not so sure. My confidence level would go up to 4 if this line jumps to 14, which is entirely possible. The sportsbooks will desperately need the Titans to cover the spread, and it’s always better to side with the bookmakers over the long haul.
Minnesota Vikings +6.5 at Green Bay Packers | Confidence: 1 out of 5
The Vikings are catching 6.5 points on the road in a divisional game with an ultra-low total. Green Bay is just 3-7 ATS this season despite its 6-3-1 overall record, representing consistent market overvaluation. The low total suggests a defensive struggle where the Vikings’ defense can keep this competitive enough to cover. I can’t get there at the current number. A big reason why is a complete mismatch in QB play.
Jordan Love operates under far less pressure than J.J. McCarthy. Love completes 67.7% of passes (ranked ninth) while being sacked just 4.88% of the time (eighth), suggesting elite pass protection around him. His 230.5 passing yards per game (11th) come on quality attempts, generating 7.8 yards per pass (sixth). Love throws interceptions at just 0.96% (fifth best). He’s been terrific despite numerous injuries at the skill positions.
Conversely, McCarthy’s efficiency metrics paint a different picture. He’s been sacked 9.6% of the time, leading to rushed decisions. His completion percentage sits at 52.9%, which would rank dead last if he qualified. He has started only five games, and the most concerning is his interception rate of 4.1%. Under pressure, McCarthy’s completion rate drops to 48.9% with a catchable-ball rate of just 38.7%. Although the sample sizes are small, the eye tests indicate that McCarthy requires more repetitions as his rookie season progresses. The Packers’ secondary has allowed just 21 completions of 20+ yards all season (fewest in NFL). I like the Packers in this spot as McCarthy makes his first career start at Lambeau Field.
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