College football’s penultimate weekend of the regular season is here, with several games across the top 25 dripping with significant implications in the College Football Playoff race. USC’s trip to Oregon is a playoff elimination matchup for the two-loss Trojans, who need a win to stay in the race, while Pittsburgh’s meeting with Georgia Tech carries significant weight in the ACC Championship conversation.
Oklahoma and Miami, two teams in the at-large conversation who need to keep winning, take on upset-minded Missouri and Virginia Tech, respectively. The Sooners’ win last week at Alabama pushed them into the top 10 while the Hurricanes have won consecutive games convincingly since a loss at SMU made hopes of getting to the league title game fade.
Last week’s results: Brad Crawford (7-3, 4-6 ATS); Chris Hummer (6-4, 4-6). We both took one on the chin last week. Our best picks were South Carolina and the points against Texas A&M and my moneyline play of Oklahoma at Alabama. Neither of us saw Clemson’s upset of Louisville coming along with Georgia’s impressive blowout against Texas. The Bulldogs proved a point and showed they might be the SEC’s best team, despite the Aggies being unbeaten and Alabama’s head-to-head win earlier this season.
Season results: Crawford (88-32 straight, 61-58-1 ATS); Hummer (89-31; 58-61-1).
For clarity, these lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook on Nov. 16. New users at FanDuel Sportsbook get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager.
Hummer (Tennessee -3.5): I’ve been consistently told this season by opposing coaches and staffers that Florida is an incredibly talented roster. There’s a reason Florida pushed Ole Miss last week. But you’ve got to score to keep up with Tennessee, and I’m not sure I have a lot of confidence of Florida’s ability to take care of the football and keep up in a shootout given the Gators have only cleared the 25-poiint barrier once this season against Power Four competition. Tennessee, meanwhile, has scored 25 in every game this year except one. … Tennessee 31, Florida 24.
Crawford (Tennessee -3.5): The Vols haven’t won in Gainesville in 22 years. Seriously. If the road losing skid is going to end, this is the perfect spot for it given Florida’s tailspin during the season’s second half. While the Gators await Lane Kiffin’s decision, they’ll have their hands full defensively against an offense that, for the most, has exceeded expectations this fall with Joey Aguilar running the show. … Tennessee 28, Florida 20.
Hummer (Michigan -10.5): Mike Locksley is safe in College Park. But that doesn’t make this game with Michigan any easier. The Wolverines are going to run the ball repeatedly against a Maryland defense that ranks 79th nationally in yards allowed per carry. An inefficient Terps run game is also going to run into a wall on the other side of the ball. Expect Michigan DC Wink Martindale to bring pressure against true freshman Malik Washington with regularity — Michigan ranks ninth nationally in blitz rate — as the Terps fall behind the chains. … Michigan 27, Maryland 14.
Crawford (Michigan -10.5): Have the Terps given up this season? They’re winless since a 4-0 start, but Maryland gave coach Mike Locksley some runway with a 2026 promise that the program would make a sizable investment in NIL. That means nothing for Saturday’s game with Michigan, but it offers optimism toward the future in College Park. This is a battle of high-end freshmen quarterback Bryce Underwood and Malik Washington, but the better defense clearly belongs to the Wolverines. … Michigan 31, Maryland 17.
Louisville at SMU
Hummer (Louisville +3.5): It feels like SMU has the momentum coming into this game. The Mustangs are coming off back-to-back wins and a bye week, helping them be much healthier than they’ve been most of the year. Louisville, meanwhile, is limping in after back-to-back losses. This is a good defensive matchup for the Mustangs, who have an excellent run defense that’s capable of forcing Miller Moss into uncomfortable obvious passing situations — he’s greatly struggled against pressure this year. If Kevin Jennings plays well, SMU should be able to move the ball on the other side of things. I like SMU at home. But there’s value with a Louisville cover. … SMU 27, Louisville 24.
Crawford (SMU -3.5): Will the Louisville team that upset Miami show up in Dallas or does another whiff of the letdown Cardinals who lost to Cal and Clemson at home reveal themselves again? If SMU wins out, the Mustangs need the following to happen to reach the ACC Championship Game and be on the verge of a playoff berth: Virginia Tech beats Virginia, Pitt beats Georgia Tech and Miami beats Pitt. That’s a lot to ask, but it starts with a win over the Cardinals. … SMU 24, Louisville 20.
Hummer (Cincinnati +2.5): Cincinnati is going to have to prove two things at home: 1. Can Brendan Sorsby hold up against man coverage? It’s been a huge issue the last few weeks for the Bearcats, and the Cougars have an excellent pass defense that plays man at the 37th-highest rate in the FBS. 2. Can a shaky Cincinnati secondary hold up against true freshman Bear Bachmeier? I don’t feel great about the pick. But I think Cincinnati’s ability to explode offensively makes the difference in this one. The Bearcats do just enough. … Cincinnati 28, BYU 27.
Crawford (BYU -2.5): Where’s the respect for the Cougars? Cincinnati got caught looking ahead to this one last weekend, a critical loss for the Bearcats that essentially suffocated conference title hopes. The line’s a bit mystifying here given how well BYU has played this season outside of that road loss to Texas Tech, but as a team still capable of getting to the playoff, they’ve got something to play for on the road. … BYU 27, Cincinnati 23.
Hummer (Texas -9.5): This could be a problematic matchup for Arkansas. The Longhorns have one obvious weakness: Their offensive line. But Arkansas doesn’t create enough pressure (73rd nationally in pressure rate) or stop the run well enough (106th nationally in yards allowed per carry) to really expose that. Texas also tends to respond after a loss under Steve Sarkisian. The Longhorns haven’t lost back-to-back games since 2021. Give me Texas to win and cover. … Texas 34, Arkansas 24.
Crawford (Texas -9.5): Steve Sarkisian can try to explain away the Longhorns’ disappointing season all he wants, but three losses over 10 games when Texas was ranked as the preseason No. 1 is failing to meet expectations. Georgia dominated from start to finish last week, Sarkisian’s ninth loss in 11 games at Texas against top-6 competition and third against Kirby Smart. The Longhorns should handle Arkansas with Texas A&M looming, but the lopsided setback in Week 12 really stings. … Texas 31, Arkansas 20.
No. 13 Miami at Virginia Tech
Hummer (Miami -16.5): Virginia Tech may have made its new hire. But the Hokies still have two games to play this season, and one of them is against a Miami team with a lot to prove to the playoff committee. Virginia Tech will struggle in this game offensively. The Hokies have the worst pass blocking unit in the ACC allowing pressures on 41% of their drop backs, and Miami creates the fourth-most pressure per drop back in the FBS. If Carson Beck plays clean — always a question — Miami should cover. … Miami 38, Virginia Tech 20.
Crawford (Miami -16.5): The Hurricanes know style points matter the rest of the way. After their destruction of NC State last weekend, I have a feeling Saturday’s matchup with the Hokies will give off similar vibes. There’s still a small path for Miami to get to the playoff following consecutive weeks of noticeable movement in the committee’s rankings. … Miami 38, Virginia Tech 17.
No. 22 Missouri at No. 8 Oklahoma
Hummer (Missouri +8.5): This is strength on strength in Norman. The Tigers have one of the nation’s top rushing attacks and the Sooners have arguably the best run defense. This will hinge largely on Beau Pribula’s availability. If he can play, Missouri will have a real shot of generating offense outside of the run game. If he can’t … it might be a tough day for true freshman Matt Zollers. I do think Pribula has a decent chance to play this week, and given the high OU is coming off of after its upset of Alabama, I think the Tigers could surprise. … Oklahoma 24, Missouri 21.
Crawford (Missouri +8.5): Will Beau Pribula return at quarterback for the Tigers? That’s key here. Fade Missouri if he’s scratched, but his availability appears to be possibility early in the week. Ahmad Hardy’s coming off a 300-yard effort against Mississippi State and this is a game two-loss Oklahoma must win to stay in the 12-team playoff projection. Brent Venables will have something up his sleeve to combat Missouri’s rushing attack and Oklahoma wins ugly, again. … Oklahoma 26, Missouri 20.
Pittsburgh at No. 16 Georgia Tech
Hummer (Georgia Tech -2.5): This could be a wild one. Both these teams can score in bunches. The Pittsburgh defense is considerably more reliable, especially against the run. But Pittsburgh true freshman QB Mason Heintschel has had his inconsistent moments this season despite runs of brilliance. This is a true tossup game. But if I’m looking for a deciding factor between two even teams, I’ll turn toward the quarterbacks. Give me Georgia Tech senior QB Haynes King, who is playing his way to New York City for the Heisman Trophy ceremony. … Georgia Tech 34, Pittsburgh 31.
Crawford (Pittsburgh +2.5): Georgia Tech’s leaking oil — and it’s noticeable. The Yellow Jackets didn’t play a clean game against Boston College and took a spill at NC State the previous weekend. Pittsburgh struggled to stop the run against Notre Dame and that’s what the Yellow Jackets do best. Haynes King leads Georgia Tech to victory and into the ACC Championship Game during an overtime win. … Georgia Tech 32, Pittsburgh 30.
Hummer (Nebraska +10.5): That’s a big line! But it’s important to remember the Huskers are without their starting quarterback and Penn State is playing incredible football of late under interim head coach Terry Smith. Nebraska needs to run the ball to win this game with a combination of Emmett Johnson and TJ Lateef. The Nittany Lions have been vulnerable against the run this year, so Nebraska does have a chance to shorten this game. I think the value here is with Nebraska to cover. … Penn State 24, Nebraska 17.
Crawford (Nebraska +10.5): This line feels too high, even if the Huskers are bringing a first-year quarterback making his second career start into a Saturday night frenzy that will be Beaver Stadium. This Penn State team has still only won a single conference game this season and that came last week at Michigan State. Two more wins and the Nittany Lions get to bowl eligibility, which starts this weekend. Not picking the cover, though. … Penn State 24, Nebraska 17.
No. 15 USC at No. 7 Oregon
TV: CBS | Live stream: CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App (free), Paramount+ Premium
Hummer (USC +7.5): There’s one real way to deal with Oregon: You need to win in the trenches and be able to match up on the perimeter against the Ducks speed. The problem for USC is their offensive line is just OK and the secondary ranks 82nd nationally in opposing passer rating. The Trojans are going to be able to score in this game. I’m just not sure if they’re going to be able to win in the trenches to pull the upset. … Oregon 28, USC 24.
Crawford (USC +7.5): Oregon’s win at Iowa was its best this season, but the Trojans just beat the Hawkeyes too (and Michigan), among others. There’s a reason USC is still in the playoff picture with this being an elimination game of sorts for Lincoln Riley’s squad. Oklahoma won in a similar spot last week on the road at Alabama and the Trojans have something to play for here. Oregon’s defense comes up with a late stop to maintain its current playoff spot. … Oregon 27, USC 24.
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