What’s wrong with Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy and how can Minnesota fix him?

J.J. McCarthy has been the worst starting quarterback in the NFL this season, by almost every metric you want to look at. Of every QB who has played in at least five games, only Russell Wilson has thrown for less passing yards than McCarthy. He’s also thrown eight interceptions, has the worst EPA per play among every qualifying QB even when you adjust for drops, and only Dillon Gabriel has a lower Success Rate as a QB. On top of that, the Minnesota Vikings, who came into this season with high hopes of building on a magical 2024, are on the brink of starting their 2026 NFL Draft scouting. Justin Jefferson is throwing helmets on the sidelines and head coach Kevin O’Connell is talking about letting cement dry when asked about developing McCarthy’s fundamentals:

Mind you, we’re in week 12. Not exactly the things you want to hear.

McCarthy and the Vikings are free falling, with many fans wondering why the QB hasn’t panned out yet despite being with one of the most affluent QB whisperers in the NFL and the best wide receiver in the league. The QB they traded up for in the 2024 Draft has looked like the worst first round QB of the bunch. So I went and dug through some numbers and tape from Sunday’s loss to the Chicago Bears, to find out what’s wrong and what the Vikings can do to fix their young QB.

By now, you’ve probably seen this throw by McCarthy:

And this throw:

And this throw:

The first thing that stands out about McCarthy’s poor play this season is quite simple: he’s been one of the most inaccurate QBs in the NFL. Of all first round QBs drafted since 2015, McCarthy has the third-highest Off-Target rate, only behind Trey Lance and Anthony Richardson. 

Now most times, when a QB is inaccurate you look at mechanics, and that’s where we start with McCarthy. When he drops back to pass, especially throwing to his left, you can tell that he overstrides and opens up his shoulder far too quickly, causing a lot of passes to sail. On the first incompletion shown at the top of the story, McCarthy is putting his entire body into throwing this speed out, and opens up far too much to throw this ball. Tom Brady actually made a YouTube video on throwing a football, and he spoke about how he used to rotate around his left arm, causing himself to open up far too much and the accuracy would spray. When watching McCarthy throw to his left, it almost looks like he’s trying to throw this ball through a wind turbine, and notice he rotates all the way around to throw this ball and it ends up sailing inaccurately out of bounds.

On this deep incompletion to Jordan Addison, it looks like McCarthy is trying to throw his whole body into this pass, which is what causes him to lose accuracy in hopes for just raw power. It’s like he’s recoiling after every pass, which is never what you want to see from an NFL QB. From the end zone angle, you’ll notice the left shoulder overrotate, and his back leg comes up off the ground, causing this ball to go in the direction of his rotational force: too far to the left and short about five yards.

The footwork also gets really murky in these situations, and when O’Connell talks about getting the cement to dry with McCarthy’s fundamentals, I think that’s what he’s talking about. Throwing a football is a rotational action, with power being generated up off the ground, through the hips and into the shoulder. When your base is compromised, it throws off your accuracy. Often, McCarthy will either stride too much or click his heels together throughout his process of throwing the ball, wasting movement and making himself less efficient throwing the football. It’s almost like his brain knows where he wants to go with the ball, but his body is trying to do far too much and he ends up sinking the play overall. This is during the two minute drill, where the Vikings run a screen and go with TE T.J. Hockenson getting wide open. McCarthy knows where to go with the ball, but he rushes his process and dirts this pass. Look at his feet in the pocket; never quiet, lots of wasted motion. Like a puppy with the zoomies.

The worst part of this all: these were all issues coming out of Michigan for McCarthy. The footwork problems, the over-rotation in the upper body, sailing passes throwing to his left, all problems that were listed on various scouting reports in the 2024 NFL Draft. The fact that none of it has improved yet is the most alarming thing. Yes, I know he had the knee injury that basically ended any year of live reps he could’ve gotten, but not showing some improvement on those mechanical issues is a big problem. McCarthy isn’t athletic enough to overcome some of the issues that his mechanics cause him in a way that QBs like Josh Allen were able to during the early portion of his career. McCarthy’s rushing through and sometimes just negligence of his foundation saps his arm and hurts him in the long run, which is where everything starts as a QB. His eyes are in the right place; it’s everything else that’s the big problem.

So how do the Vikings mitigate these issues to try and get the most out of what is becoming a lost season? In the short term, I think running more tempo in the offense could help clean up his footwork. Giving him less to think about so he can focus on his feet being quiet and cleaning up his mechanics has paid dividends for the Vikings so far this season, and it could help McCarthy slow down, by speeding up. These are all of his passes during the final drive against the Bears, but I want to focus on the pass at the :45 second mark, a completion to Justin Jefferson. Look at how little wasted movement there is, and how the overrotation is ironed out. Pass is on time and completed, one of the better throws he made on Sunday.

In the long term, I think what J.J. McCarthy needs to chill out. Every throw he’s missed this season has looked the same: he’s so amped up and tight as a passer that he’s throwing his entire body into passes that don’t need to set records on the radar gun. His mechanics are bad because he’s rushing through them, as if the game is moving too fast for him. Which is fascinating because he looks like he knows where to go with the ball, it’s just his mechanics and body slowing him down. He’s trying to play catch up, having been the only 2024 QB to miss his rookie season for a team that won 14 games last season without him. For McCarthy to truly succeed in Minnesota, he has to take advice from a former Packer QB, Aaron Rodgers: R-E-L-A-X.