The inherent absurdity of the College Football Playoff Selection Committee releasing rankings before the regular season ends is obvious. The results aren’t final, so what does it matter where any team is ranked at that moment in time? There are so many more games to play.
Also, why rank 25 teams when there are only 12 spots? Why do we need to know who the No. 21 team is? Just tell us the teams that are in and what seed they’d be.
I tell ya, the whole process is idiotic! A much better idea would be to take the 12-team field as currently presented in the latest rankings and play it out in a magical world of whimsy! That’s why I’ve taken this beautiful bracket pictured below and played it through in a series of super serious simulations. These simulations are powered by AI, folks, so you know they’re legit.
OK, so by AI, I mean my computer. I used my own weekly College Football Power Ratings and played out the hypothetical matchups. What follows are the results. Are they a prediction of the future? Or are they a statement of fact? Only time will tell.
Quarterfinal sites below based on current College Football Playoff bowl projections.
CBS Sports Graphic
College Football Playoff predictions
First round
No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Texas Tech: First of all, it’s wild that Tulane is the highest-ranked Group of Five team this week despite having a 22-point loss to UTSA on its resume — particularly when North Texas beat the same UTSA team by 38 … a week after losing to South Florida by 27. Boy, teams in the American lose big when they lose, huh? Anyway, we’re going to spend the next few weeks arguing over which G5 team deserves the spot, but they’re going to get blown out by Texas Tech regardless. Texas Tech advances.
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma: This is a tough call. This game would be played in Norman, Oklahoma, which is a serious boost for the Sooners, but I have Notre Dame as nearly a touchdown better than Oklahoma in my power ratings on a neutral field. Can home field make up for that gap? It might, but in this simulation, Notre Dame is the first road team to win a first-round game in College Football Playoff history. A real “where were you?” moment. Notre Dame advances.
No. 11 Miami at No. 6 Ole Miss: This would be a close game on a neutral field, but this will be played at Vaught Hemingway Stadium, tilting the outcome strongly in the Rebels’ favor. Don’t feel too bad about it, though, Miami. In reality, you wouldn’t even be here if this were the real playoff. You’re the highest-ranked ACC team but also the least likely of the ranked ACC teams to win the ACC. Ole Miss advances.
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon: These are the Nos. 3 and 4 teams in my power ratings, and they’re essentially equal. This game on paper is a virtual coin flip. But it won’t be played on paper. It’ll be played on turf — turf that’s inside Autzen Stadium, which is a madhouse when the Ducks are hosting Eastern Washington. Imagine what it’ll be like when it’s hosting a playoff game? Let this serve as a notice to Alabama that it needs to win the SEC, because it doesn’t want to find itself in a road game like this one in the first round. Oregon advances.
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Quarterfinals
No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 5 Texas Tech (Cotton Bowl): We’re at neutral sites now, which is ridiculous. It makes no sense that the teams that are good enough to earn a bye don’t also get a home game to go with it, but it won’t matter when they expand this bad boy to 16 teams eventually. As for this matchup, I can’t wait to watch this hypothetical game along the lines of scrimmage, because Texas Tech may legitimately have a better defensive line than Georgia. Imagine somebody writing that sentence last year. Still, I think Georgia would come through with the win here. I give the Dawgs the edge at QB and the skill positions on offense. Georgia advances.
No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Notre Dame (Rose Bowl): A rematch of last year’s title game with very similar results. The Irish are good, but I don’t think they’re strong enough in the front seven on defense to do what they’d have to do if they wanted to pull off an upset here. Plus, remember when Ohio State went into death machine mode for the playoff last year? The Buckeyes will probably do the same thing here. Ohio State advances.
No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 6 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl): I have Texas A&M ahead of Ole Miss in my power ratings, but the gap isn’t nearly as wide as their rankings suggest. A&M is No. 8 in my ratings, just ahead of Ole Miss at No. 10. This game, on a neutral field, can go either direction. In my simulations, the edge went Ole Miss’ way this time. However, after the game, Ole Miss told Lane Kiffin that he has to make a decision about his future by the end of next week, and they’re super serious about it this time. Ole Miss advances.
No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 7 Oregon (Orange Bowl): Last year, Oregon beat Ohio State at Autzen Stadium and earned a first-round bye in the playoff. The Ducks then had a rematch with that very same Ohio State team and lost, ending their season. This year, Indiana beat Oregon at Autzen Stadium and earned a first-round bye in the playoff. The Hoosiers then had a rematch with that very same Oregon team in this simulation, and guess what? They lost! Oregon advances.
Semifinals
No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Georgia (Fiesta Bowl or Peach Bowl): I bet I know which one of these two semifinals will be the one played in prime time. This is an incredible matchup we’re getting, and it isn’t the first time these behemoths have met in a playoff game. Nor will it be the last. Georgia won the last time, but in this simulation, the defending champions keep their bid to repeat alive. Ohio State advances.
No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 7 Oregon (Fiesta Bowl or Peach Bowl): In the last round, Ole Miss wasn’t as big an underdog to Texas A&M as their seeds might suggest. In this round, Ole Miss is still an underdog despite the seeds. Yeah, Oregon is No. 3 in my power ratings, seven spots ahead of the Rebels. That gap was too much for Lane Kiffin — who is still ignoring that ultimatum — and Ole Miss to overcome. Oregon advances.
College Football Playoff National Championship
No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 7 Oregon (Hard Rock Stadium — Miami): After playing twice last year and splitting the series, these teams avoided each other in the regular season this year. They didn’t even meet in the Big Ten Championship Game. Instead, they both make it to the title game, ensuring that the Big Ten will win its third consecutive national championship. It’s also Ohio State’s second straight, as the Buckeyes prove to be too much for the Ducks.
Ohio State is your back-to-back national champion. Which, if it does happen, is the most impressive feat in college football history.
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