NCAA Tournament Bracketology: Big Ten overtaking SEC in projected March Madness field

Less than three weeks into the 2025-26 college basketball season, it’s getting dark early on the SEC’s hopes of matching last year’s record tally of 14 NCAA Tournament teams. Tuesday night’s 83-66 loss for No. 12 Kentucky against No. 17 Michigan State in the Champions Classic was only the latest bit of evidence to suggest the balance of power is shifting to the Big Ten.

The SEC is just 6-11 against other high-major conferences, while the Big Ten is 12-4 entering Wednesday’s action. In head-to-head action, the Big Ten is 4-1 against the SEC.

Last season, the SEC used a 59-19 mark against the other power conferences to create an unprecedented level of dominance over the national landscape. While it’s still early, it would take a recovery of epic proportions for the conference to recreate the conditions which led to last year’s historic Selection Sunday haul.

That reality is reflected in this week’s CBS Sports Bracketology. Our model projects the Big Ten will top the charts with 12 bids, including a pair of No. 1 seeds in Purdue and Illinois.

Here is the breakdown of how many bids the CBS Sports Bracketology model projects for each multi-bid league following action on November 18:

Big Ten (12): Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Iowa, USC, UCLA, Nebraska, Ohio State, Northwestern
SEC (11): Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Missouri, Arkansas , Ole Miss, Texas
ACC (7): Duke, Louisville, NC State, Clemson, Virginia, UNC, SMU
Big 12 (7): Houston, Arizona, Iowa State, Texas Tech, BYU, Baylor, Kansas
Big East (3): UConn, St. John’s, Creighton
WCC (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
Mountain West (2): Colorado State, Utah State

Here is the full seeding breakdown of our latest CBS Sports Bracketology simulation.

Bracketology top seeds

On the bubble

Last four in

Northwestern
Creighton
SMU
Colorado State

First four out

Mississippi State
San Diego State
LSU
Cincinnati

Bracketology takeaways

Recalibrating on No. 1 seeds

Duke and Purdue were each projected No. 1 seeds in the opening day edition of CBS Sports Bracketology along with Michigan and St. John’s. With significant amounts of new data to evaluate, our model has downgraded the Wolverines and Red Storm for now. Michigan struggled in wins over Wake Forest and TCU, neither of which are projected to make the field. St. John’s dropped its first showcase opportunity against Alabama and has also been dinged because of the Big East’s slow collective start. The league is just 3-9 in head-to-head games with teams from other high-major conferences. That suggests the Johnnies may have a dearth of Quad 1 opportunities in conference play.

Indiana surges up

Indiana is one of the biggest early-season risers. The Hoosiers are off to a 4-0 start under first-year coach Darian DeVries — highlighted by a 100-77 thrashing of Marquette — and are projected as a No. 5 seed. Stylistically, the Hoosiers are lightyears apart under DeVries from how they played under predecessor Mike Woodson. IU ranks No. 44 nationally made 3-pointers per game at 10.8 after ranking 321st last season with 6.3 per game. Their soaring offensive efficiency, combined with the Big Ten’s robust strength, are creating ideal conditions for IU to make the Big Dance in DeVries’ debut campaign.

Vanderbilt is an early darling

The CBS Sports Bracketology model is a huge early fan of Vanderbilt. The Commodores are No. 4 nationally in scoring at 101.5 points per game through four contests and look poised to build on last season’s strong debut for coach Mark Byington. So far, the highlight performance is a 105-93 win against a UCF team that just beat Texas A&M on the road. If the Commodores meet the model’s expectations, it would be just the second time in program history and the first time since 1993 that they have received a No. 3 seed or better for the Big Dance.