Eddie Howe is entering a crucial period in his reign at Newcastle United.
Although it is too soon to suggest that the manager is under pressure, he will understand that his team needs to deliver much better performances on the pitch.
Overall, the defence has been strong this season. Only Arsenal (6) and Manchester City (10.3) have recorded a lower expected goals (xG) conceded than us – 11.1.
The hope will be that the defensive reliability will be maintained, as this will provide a platform for the attack. If we ended the season with a defence that had underlying metrics in the top five of the team, we would inevitably climb the table. The bigger issues lie in attack.
At the time of writing, we have created 12.8 xG. This ranks us 12th in the Premier League. That is obviously not good enough. The Alexander Isak saga has had an impact on that record, as he was our talisman in attack and we have struggled to adapt without him. Nick Woltemade is a different profile and there was always going to be a transition period.
When you dig deeper into the numbers, there is one worrying trend in our shot output. Jacob Murphy has taken 26 shots. The next most in the squad is both Bruno Guimaraes and Anthony Gordon with 14. When you look into the averages, Murphy takes 4.12 shots per ninety minutes. The only other player to average more than four in the Premier League is Erling Haaland (4.19).
Unlike the Norwegian, Murphy isn’t known for being a prolific player and he is taking lower percentage shots. He ranks 2nd for shots per ninety in the Premier League. Whereas, he ranks 24th for xG, with a total of 2.3 for the season.
The winger has always liked to shoot from range, but it seems like his volume is increasing. Over the course of the season, he may score one or two if he’s lucky. Ultimately, most of these shots will lead to the ball being turned over and an attacking position being wasted. If the trend of Murphy being our primary shooter continues, we are unlikely to get anywhere fast.
It is worth comparing him to his team-mates, with Osula (2.88), Gordon (2.75), Harvey Barnes (2.3) and Nick Woltemade (1.76) all having lower shot volume than Murphy. The one that stands out is the German striker, as he is really struggling to get shooting opportunities. This is likely a consequence of the team not being built for his style of play. His team-mates are still getting used to him.
Woltemade is unlikely to ever be an Isak type striker, who averages more than three shots per 90 minutes. That isn’t his game, as he likes to drop deep and play his part in breaking down an opposition defence. Howe will want his shot volume to increase though, as he is capable of scoring goals at a healthier rate than others in the team.
This is emphasised by his xG, as he has a total of 3 for the season, which is comfortably the highest of any Newcastle player. This is despite him missing the first three matches of the season. Woltemade is getting high quality chances. Howe needs to find the tactical tweaks that mean more of our attacking output is ending at his feet, rather than Murphy’s. If we do find the changes to facilitate this, our attack will become a lot more threatening.
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