The Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Angels kicked off Major League Baseball’s trading season late Tuesday night with a surprising swap involving right-handed starter Grayson Rodriguez and outfielder Taylor Ward.
As is tradition here at CBS Sports whenever an interesting deal happens, I’m here to provide near-instant analysis on everyone involved. That includes, among other responsibilities, handing out grades to each team. You’ll find all of that information below, though mind you that the grades themselves are the least important part of the piece.
Before we get to the analysis, here’s the trade in its entirety:
- Orioles receive: OF Taylor Ward
- Angels receive: RHP Grayson Rodriguez
Now, let’s conduct some business.
Orioles grade: B
Mike Elias may be the most hyperrational executive in MLB history when it comes to pitchers. Everyone knows about their attrition rates and volatility, but Elias actually takes the risk profile to heart. It wouldn’t be too surprising if he had a “TINSTAAPP” tattoo on one of his elbows. To wit, he’s guided the Orioles since the fall of 2018 — more than seven whole years — without ever 1) signing a pitcher to a guaranteed multi-year pact or 2) selecting a pitcher with a first-round pick.
Yes, Elias has traded for a few pitchers in his time, Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin included, but he’s otherwise avoided investing more in arms than he absolutely has to — for better and for worse. Here, Elias is bailing on Rodriguez, someone who was viewed as one of the most promising young starters not long ago, in exchange for a rental outfielder with a career 111 OPS+. It’s a fascinating little trade.
Ward, 32 in a matter of weeks, is coming off a 36-homer showing that saw him post just a 116 OPS+. (Remarkably, teammate Jo Adell homered 37 times for a 111 OPS+.) He’s been at least a league-average hitter in five consecutive seasons and he has the 15th best OPS in the majors against lefties since 2023 (putting him in the midst of a group that includes Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani). He’s not a good outfield defender, but he’s regularly turned in 2- or 3-win seasons and he ought to do it again.
In time, I think that description may prove to undersell Ward. He’s far more interesting now than he was 12 months ago. While he doesn’t post extreme exit velocities, he upped his slugging by moving closer to the plate and making contact further out in front. Despite those changes, he maintained an excellent grasp over the strike zone and connected more frequently on pitches within the zone. Considering upside with a player of this age and track record is normally foolish. Still, the overall profile here isn’t too different from Seiya Suzuki, with the difference being Ward has one season with a 130 OPS+ or better while Suzuki has three and counting.
Ward figures to slot into a corner-outfield spot, with Baltimore using some combination of Colton Cowser, Dylan Beavers, Tyler O’Neill, and Leody Taveras to fill out the depth chart.
I’m less interested in what Elias does with the outfield than what he does now with his rotation. The Orioles are an obvious candidate to nab a free-agent starter or two, but at what cost? Will Elias go against his hard-earned reputation and give Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, or Ranger Suárez multiple years? Or will he pursue a different solution, one that allows him to avoid a commitment through some potentially lean years?
This is an important offseason for the Orioles, looking to rebound after a lost year. If the Ward trade is any indication, Elias is going to be bold.
Angels grade: B
This trade has the potential to be a big winner for the Angels. Rodriguez has three additional years of team control, giving him a longer tail over which to produce, and he’s not that far removed from being considered one of the best young arms in the sport. Even if he just sustains his career production to date (a 97 ERA+ in 43 starts), the Angels will no doubt come out ahead in the eventual accounting.
Alas, trade analysis isn’t — or shouldn’t be, anyway — so simple as adding up the WAR. With Rodrigez, I think it’s worth asking: do the Orioles make this trade if they think Rodriguez has a butterfly’s chance in a blizzard of reliably taking his turn in the rotation? Probably not.
Not-so-coincidentally, Rodriguez missed last season following Tommy John surgery. Predicting player health, and especially pitcher health, is a fool’s errand. Even so, it’s apparent that Rodriguez has some serious durability concerns. He’s thrown more than 100 innings in a season just three times since being drafted in 2018, and he’s never cleared 25 starts or 130 innings. Will he ever? Your guess is as good as mine and anyone else’s. The Orioles seem to be betting on “no.”
Extreme volatility is often viewed as an analyst’s worst enemy — we like to center our projections on the most likely outcome. That’s not always the case. There’s a pathway here where the Orioles are correct in their assessment of Rodriguez’s availability while the Angels still come out ahead. The majors are scattered with injury-prone pitchers who have enjoyed a big season or two, be it Michael King, Garrett Crochet, whomever. That may not be the likeliest potential outcome, but it is a potential outcome nonetheless, and if it comes to fruition the Angels could really stand to benefit, not only from what he provides them on the field but what he may return as part of an in-season trade.
Should Rodriguez prove he can stay healthy, he has the talent to produce as a plus starter, albeit on a rate basis. The last time he was on a big-league mound, he showed off a four-pitch mix that included a 96 mph fastball and three other offerings that stuff models consider to be above-average pitches. I will note that Rodriguez has found himself vulnerable to hard contact, with opponents battering his fastball to the tune of an .841 OPS. Maybe there’s a deficiency there not being captured by those pitch-quality measures, or maybe it’s something he can work through with new pitching coach Mike Maddux.
The unspoken part here is that you can be high on Ward and acknowledge he’s a 33-year-old with a season of team control left. Can you bank on him declining the qualifying offer tender next winter and recouping draft-pick compensation? I think not. Realistically, I don’t think the Angels were going to nab a player in return for Ward who offers both immediate and long-term potential impact like Rodriguez, either. This was probably the best deal that was going to be available to them.
If you’re Perry Minasian and the Angels, you have to take the plunge, warts and all — the upside is just that tantalizing.
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