Bills vs. Texans predictions, odds: ‘Thursday Night Football’ picks from 10,000 simulations

The Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans will meet on ‘Thursday Night Football,’ with both squads playing some of their best ball as of late. Each has won three of its last four, with Buffalo (7-3) sitting second in the AFC East, while Houston (5-5) is third in the AFC South. The Bills knocked off Tampa, 44-32, in Week 11, as Josh Allen accounted for six total touchdowns. Meanwhile, Houston recorded a 16-13 Sunday victory over Tennessee giving the Texans their second straight win with Davis Mills filling in for C.J. Stroud (concussion). Stroud will not play on Thursday, per Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans.

Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET from NRG Stadium in Houston. The Texans have won five straight home games versus Buffalo, including a 23-20 triumph last season. The latest Texans vs. Bills odds have Buffalo as a 6-point favorite. The over/under for total points is 43.5. Before making any Bills vs. Texans picks, be sure to see what the SportsLine projection model has to say. 

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The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 12 on a 48-33 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

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Now, the model has zeroed in on Houston vs. Buffalo. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Bills vs. Texans:

Why the Bills can cover

Allen showed why he is the reigning MVP and a candidate to go back-to-back with his Sunday performance versus the Bucs. He had three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns for the second such game with those stats in his career, and no other player in NFL history even has one such regular season game. With his dual-threat ability, plus James Cook, Buffalo leads the league in rushing offense. On the other side of the ball, Buffalo is elite at defending through the air, ranking in the top five in both passing yards allowed and passing touchdowns given up. Struggling to move the ball through the air would cause tons of problems for Houston, as the Texans have a bottom-10 rush offense and rank 31st in red-zone scoring. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why the Texans can cover

There’s no better unit in all of football than Houston’s defense, which boasts No. 1 rankings in both scoring defense and total defense. The Texans have no holes on that side of the ball, with additional top-three rankings versus the run, versus the pass and on third downs. Houston also has a big edge in the all-important turnover differential metric at +7, compared to the Bills being at +1. Additionally, the Bills’ No. 31 run defense could get a middling rush offense like Houston’s going, and you can’t ignore the recent history of this series. The Texans are 5-0 outright and 4-1 against the spread over their last five home games versus Buffalo. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Bills vs. Texans picks

For the NFL Week 12 ‘Thursday Night Football’ game of Texans vs. Bills, the model is leaning Under the total, projecting 43 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. See what it is at SportsLine.

Who wins Bills vs. Texans, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texans vs. Bills spread you need to jump, all from the model that is 48-33 on top-rated picks since 2024, and find out.