NFL Week 9 picks, score predictions: Colts destroy Steelers, Chiefs beat Bills in AFC thriller

Before we start things off here, I’d like everyone to know that if all my picks are wrong this week, I blame Halloween. It is easily one of my three favorite holidays: I eat too much candy, I buy more pumpkins than I need (I need to stop buying pumpkins) and I watch way too many horror movies. 

When it comes to that last part, the good news is that I’ve seen so many horror movies that I’m actually going to recommend some to a few NFL fan bases out there. Here are my three recommendations for this week: 

• Saw. I’m recommending this for Bengals fans since they would probably rather saw off a body part than watch their defense play another down. 
• Scream. I’m recommending this for Steelers fans since they’re pretty much screaming at their television any time Pittsburgh’s defense is on the field.
• The Ring. I’m recommending this for Cowboys fans. This team hasn’t won a ring in 30 years, so watching “The Ring” is likely the closest they’re going to get to one anytime soon. 

The Cowboys, Bengals and Steelers have three of the worst defenses in the NFL, but is that going to stop me from picking them this week? Let’s get to the Week 9 picks and find out. 

Actually, before we get to the Week 9 picks, here’s a quick reminder that you can check out the weekly picks from every CBSSports.com NFL expert by clicking here. Also, as you probably know by now — because I point it out every week — I’m in charge of the NFL newsletter here at CBSSports.com. If you want to subscribe, all you have to do is click here and enter your email address. I’m going to eat one piece of Halloween candy every time someone signs up. I think my dentist is going to be thrilled.

Speaking of thrilling, let’s get to the picks.  

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NFL Week 9 picks

Atlanta at New England

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Last week, I picked the Broncos to beat the Cowboys and my entire reason for making the pick is because Dallas always seems to forget how to play football when you put them outdoors. Well, the Falcons are worse. If you have ever seen a fish out of water, that’s what the Falcons look like when they’re forced to play a game outdoors.

Over the past 12 months, the Falcons have played four outdoor games and here’s how they’ve done in those games: 

Nov. 17, 2024: Broncos 38-6 over Falcons 
Dec. 29, 2024: Commanders 30-24 over Falcons
Sept. 21, 2025: Panthers 30-0 over Falcons
Oct. 19, 2025: 49ers 20-10 over Falcons

I’m not sure about you guys, but I’m noticing a pattern here. Not only are they 0-4, but they’ve lost those four games by an average of 19.5 points per game. When a fish is out of water, it just flops around on the ground, and that’s basically what the Falcons do when they’re forced to play outdoors. 

The one thing the Falcons do have going for them this year is that even if their offense flops, the defense could save the day. The Falcons have given up the fewest passing yards per game in the NFL this year (149.1) and the second-fewest total yards per game (275.6), but the problem is that I don’t trust those numbers and I don’t trust their defense anymore after watching them give up 34 points to the Dolphins in Week 8. I also don’t trust the Falcons’ offensive coaching staff anymore after they gave Bijan Robinson just nine carries against Miami. The Dolphins were giving up the MOST RUSHING YARDS IN THE NFL heading into Week 8, and for some reason, the Falcons decided not to give Robinson the ball. 

On other hand, I trust the Patriots: I trust their coaching staff, I trust their quarterback and I even trust their secondary, especially after a game where they were making interceptions like this. 

That is a great picture, but please don’t hang it in the Louvre, because it might get stolen. I’ve heard security at that place is a little lax. 

Before the season started, I predicted that Mike Vrabel would win coach of the year and that the Patriots would make the playoffs and I’m feeling especially good about that prediction after watching how good Drake Maye has become. The Patriots QB has thrown for at least 200 yards with a passer rating of at least 100 in seven straight games, becoming only the fifth QB in NFL history to pull off that feat. 

When you look at this list, please keep the following things in mind: Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs to the AFC title game in 2018, Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to a 15-1 record in 2011, Tom Brady led the Patriots to a 16-0 season in 2007 and Peyton Manning led the Colts to a 12-4 record in 2004. 

If you’re quarterback is playing as well as Mahomes, Manning, Brady and Rodgers in their primes, then I can’t pick your team to lose, especially in this situation: We have a QB playing at a high level going up against a team that flops around like a fish out of water when they play outdoors. I think I’ll take the team that’s not being compared to the fish. 

PICK: Patriots 27-17 over Falcons | Patriots -5.5 | Odds via DraftKings, where new users bet $5, get $300 in Bonus Bets + 3 Months of NBA League Pass. Click here to get started:

Indianapolis (7-1) at Pittsburgh (4-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

As we head into Week 9, here is your weekly update on how my Colts’ picks are going this year: I’m 8-0 straight-up and 7-1 against the spread, and my entire life now revolves completely around the Colts. I might even be Blue for Halloween. In related news, does anyone know where I can get a Blue costume on short notice? 

And hey look, that video has a fish out of water, which is almost fitting, because the Colts will be facing the fish out of water/Falcons in Week 10. Anyway, the Colts have taken over my life and when they’re not playing, I have to fill my time with something so I do that by watching Indiana Jones movies. And let me just say, I’m not the only one who has taken this Daniel Jones/Indiana Jones thing way too far. There are Colts fans who are now attending games dressed up as INDIANA JONES. 

To be fair, that could also be a huge Indiana Jones fan who accidentally ended up at a Colts game. Either way, Daniel Jones landing in Indianapolis is the greatest thing that has ever happened to the Colts and the team is milking it for all its worth. 

So what’s going to happen in this game? This week, the Colts will be facing their biggest challenge: Mother Nature. 

Through the first eight weeks of the season, the Colts have only played one outdoor game and that came in Week 3 against the Titans on a day where it was 84 degrees and sunny. When the Colts get to Pittsburgh this weekend, it’s likely going to be under 50 degrees and it could be rainy. 

Will that kind of weather slow down the Colts? No, because nothing can slow down the Colts. This team is leading the NFL in total yards per game (385.3) and points per game (33.8), and now, they get to face a Steelers defense that looks broken. The Steelers have surrendered the MOST passing yards per game in the NFL this year (273.3) and they’ll be going up against Jones, who has the third-most passing yards in the league through eight weeks. If they try to stop the pass, then Jonathan Taylor will rush for 300 yards. 

The Steelers have given up 30 points or more in four of their seven games and here are the four quarterbacks who they faced in those games: Justin Fields (Jets), Sam Darnold (Seahawks), Joe Flacco (Bengals), Jordan Love (Packers). 

Joe Flacco had only been with the Bengals for nine days when he faced the Steelers and he still managed to lead the Bengals to 33 points. If the Steelers couldn’t stop Flacco, it seems highly unlikely that they’re going to be able to slow down a Colts offense that has been unstoppable all season. 

The comeback crusade continues for Indiana Jones as he gets a win in the Temple of Tomlin. 

PICK: Colts 41-24 over Steelers | Colts -3 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Denver (6-2) at Houston (3-4)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo — try for free)

If defense really wins championships, then we should all probably bet everything we own on the winner of this game to win the Super Bowl. Heading into Week 9, the Broncos and Texans have two of the best defenses in the NFL. I don’t usually make charts here because I’m too lazy, but I think a chart might be the best way to show just how good these defenses are: 

So there you have it: The Texans rank in the top-five in four of the biggest defensive categories and the Broncos are right behind them. 

One stat that isn’t on the chart that will certainly help the Broncos on Sunday is sacks. The Broncos have racked up an NFL-high 36 sacks this year, which is an absurdly high number when you consider that no other team even has 28 sacks. 

If you can’t protect your quarterback, then you have almost no chance to beat the Broncos. Last year, CJ Stroud was sacked 52 times, which was the second-highest total in the NFL. This year, he’s only been sacked 15 times through seven games, which is tied for the 14th most in the NFL. That’s not a bad number, but there have been three different games this year where Stroud was sacked at least three times and the Texans went 0-3 in those games. On the other hand, the Texans are 3-1 when Stroud is sacked two times or less. If Denver can get pressure on Stroud, it’s going to be a long day for the Texans.

For the Broncos offense, they faced the worst defense in the NFL last week (Cowboys), and now, they have to face the best defense in the NFL in Week 9. The difference there is the difference between getting hit over the head with a piece of styrofoam versus getting over the head with a brick (The Cowboys are not the brick in this scenario). 

The Texans’ three wins have come against Cam Ward (Titans), Cooper Rush (Ravens) and Mac Jones (49ers). I don’t think we’re going to be adding Bo Nix to that list. 

PICK: Broncos 23-20 over Texans | Broncos +1.5 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Chicago (4-3) at Cincinnati (3-5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET  (CBS, Paramount+)

I’m not sure if it’s a good thing or a bad thing, but for the second straight week, the Bears will be facing one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Usually, I would say this is a good thing, but based on what happened to them in Week 8 against the Ravens, this might be a bad thing. 

Going into Week 8, the Ravens were giving up more points per game (32.3) than ANY other team in the NFL and the Bears couldn’t score on them. Part of the reason the Bears couldn’t score is because Caleb Williams didn’t play great, which has now been an issue for about a month. Over his past four games, Williams has more interceptions (3) than touchdown passes (2) and he’s averaging just 230.3 passing yards per game in that span. After watching Williams throw for 298 yards and four touchdowns in a Week 3 win over the Cowboys, I was convinced that he had already mastered Ben Johnson’s offense and that the Bears were going to be unbeatable this year. But instead, I’m now worried that he might have peaked in Week 3. I know that it’s like to peak early. I peaked in fourth grade. It’s been downhill ever since. 

Williams will have a chance to turn things around this week: He gets to face a Bengals defense that has given up the most points per game, the most rushing yards per game and the third-most passing yards per game this year. If the Bears can’t move the ball on this defense, they might want to blow their offense up and start over from scratch. 

The Bengals have given up at least 27 points in four straight games, which makes me feel like this game is going to turn into a shootout. In Week 8, the Bears got to face a team that had a bad defense and an offense led by a QB who spent most of August on the Browns’ roster (Tyler Huntley). In Week 9, the Bears once again get to face a team that has a bad defense while being led on offense by a QB who spent August on the Browns’ roster (Joe Flacco). 

Things didn’t work out so well for the Bears last week and I’m not feeling any better about them this week. The Bears secondary is banged up and I think Flacco is going to be able to take advantage of that. 

PICK: Bengals 34-31 over Bears | Bengals +2.5 | Odds via BetMGM

Kansas City (5-3) at Buffalo (5-2)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET  (CBS, Paramount+)

I’m not in charge of your social calendar, but If you have plans at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, I’d go ahead and cancel them. If you don’t have plans, then make some, just so you can cancel them, because you are not going to want to miss this game. If you live in or around Buffalo, then make sure to head to stadium on Sunday because CBS is going to be there. That’s right, this game is so big that we’re sending our pregame show to Buffalo. 

This will mark the sixth straight year that the Bills and Chiefs have met in the regular season and I’m starting to think they might have broken the NFL’s scheduling formula. Someone needs to talk to Roger Goodell about that. 

For the past five seasons, these two teams have earned either the first, second or third-seed in the AFC playoffs, but I don’t think that’s going to happen this year. This game usually feels like it’s going to have a huge impact on the race for the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC, but this year, it could have a different kind of impact, because I could see the losing team getting stuck playing as a wild-card team in the playoffs. The Chiefs are staring up at the Broncos in the AFC West standings and the Bills are behind the Patriots in the AFC East, so neither team can really afford a loss here. 

In a must-win situation, I would usually take the Chiefs, but I hate picking against the Bills at home. Although the Bills can’t seem to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs, that hasn’t been the case in the regular season. The Bills have won FOUR straight regular season games against Kansas City, but I think that streak is going to end this year. 

Josh Allen is so good that he can usually mask any problems that the Bills have, but not this year. On offense, their receivers can’t get open, and on defense, they can’t stop the run (They’ve given up the second-most rushing yards per game in the NFL this year). That second issue is probably the bigger one because Andy Reid is one of the smartest offensive coaches in the NFL and if he sees that you can’t stop the run, then he’s going to run the ball. And if you decided to go all-in on stopping the run, then Patrick Mahomes is going to throw for 700 yards. And he might do that anyway, because the Bills will be missing one of their top pass-rushers in Ed Oliver, who’s tied for the team lead in sacks (Oliver suffered a biceps injury in Week 8 and will miss several games).

Heading into Week 9, it feels like Mahomes is playing at a higher level than Allen. The Bills QB has one game this year where he’s thrown three touchdown passes, Mahomes has hit that number four times in the past five weeks. With Rashee Rice back from suspension, the Chiefs’ offense is at full strength. Basically, the Death Star is now fully operational and the Bills are Alderaan. 

PICK: Chiefs 34-27 over Bills | Chiefs -1.5 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook, where new users get 20 100% profit boosts with the code CBS20X:

NFL Week 9 picks: All the rest

Ravens 34-20 over Dolphins
Lions 31-16 over Vikings
Packers 27-20 over Panthers
Chargers 24-17 over Titans
49ers 20-17 over Giants
Jaguars 24-16 over Raiders
Rams 34-17 over Saints
Seahawks 27-23 over Commanders
Cowboys 38-27 over Cardinals

Last Week 

Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Chargers would score at least 30 points in a win over the Vikings and guess what happened? The Chargers scored at least 30 points in a win over the Vikings. Now did I know that Carson Wentz was going to play the entire game with a torn labrum and had been playing with a torn labrum for nearly three weeks? I did not know that, but now I do. 

That sounds painful. But also, I feel like this tells me everything I need to know about J.J. McCarthy. The Vikings’ had two options last week: They could start a QB with a torn labrum and a fractured socket or start a QB who was mostly recovered from a sprained ankle. They chose option A. They chose someone with a TORN LABRUM AND A FRACTURED SOCKET to play over McCarthy. I now have no faith in him. They’re going to lose by four touchdowns this week, aren’t they? 

Worst pick: Last week, I was so convinced that Aaron Rodgers would get revenge on the Packers that I became blinded by common sense. I picked a 41-year-old quarterback with the worst defense in the NFL to beat one of the best teams in the league. There was no way that was happening. And to add insult to injury, I picked the Steelers even though I knew they were wearing a uniform from 1933 that was universally hated by everyone on the internet, which is mildly surprising, because no one on the internet ever agrees on anything.

You know what? Now that I’m looking at the uniform again, I think I kind of like it. Oh my God, I only picked the Steelers because I liked their uniform, didn’t I? You know what, I deserved to get the pick wrong.   

Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I’m actually good at picking, I’m going to start sharing that information with you now that we’ve got eight full weeks of information. Here’s a quick look at my best teams when it comes to picks this year. 

Teams I’m 8-0 picking this year (Straight up): Colts
Teams I’m 7-1 picking this year (Straight up): Titans, Broncos, Saints, Cardinals (6-1), Raiders (6-1)

Longest winning streak: Colts (Eight straight games picked correctly)
Longest losing streak: 49ers (five straight games picked incorrectly)

Picks Record

Straight up in Week 8: 8-5
SU overall: 79-41-1

Against the spread in Week 8: 4-9
ATS overall: 56-65

You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter, and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s probably watching ‘Saw’ with his family since they’re all Bengals fans.