NFL predictions: Can anyone overtake the Colts for the No. 1 seed in the AFC?

The Indianapolis Colts posted an 8-9 record last season and failed to qualify for the playoffs for the fourth straight year. They haven’t hit double digits in victories during that span (registering nine twice) won the AFC South title since 2014 or earned the No. 1 seed in the conference since 2009.

All those droughts might be coming to an end as the Colts own the best record in the league after seven weeks of the 2025 NFL season. Indianapolis has won six of its first seven games, with its lone defeat being a 27-20 road setback in Week 4 against the Los Angeles Rams in which it squandered a seven-point lead with less than four minutes remaining in the fourth quarter.

After beating out Anthony Richardson for the starting quarterback job during training camp, Daniel Jones has resurrected his career while helping make the Colts one of the biggest surprises in the league. The 28-year-old Duke product, who was selected sixth overall by the New York Giants in the 2019 NFL Draft, requested and received his release from the team last November after 5+ unspectacular seasons and ended 2024 with the Minnesota Vikings before becoming a free agent.

Jones signed a one-year contract with Indianapolis this past March and was named the team’s starting QB in August. The decision by head coach Shane Steichen has proven to be a superb one as Jones ranks second in the NFL in adjusted QBR (80.2) and fifth in both passing yards (1,790) and completion percentage (71.0%).

Jonathan Taylor also has played a major role in the Colts’ success this season. The 26-year-old out of Wisconsin, who led the league in rushing and touchdown runs in 2021, is on pace to do so again as he is first in the NFL with 697 rushing yards and 10 rushing scores. Taylor has posted three 100-yard performances thus far in 2025 and also has rushed for three scores on three occasions.

Indianapolis, which has a two-game lead over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South, is 4-0 at home this season and figures to remain unbeaten at Lucas Oil Stadium as it hosts the 1-6 Tennessee Titans in Week 8. The club then visits the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers and travels to Germany to face the Atlanta Falcons before its bye in Week 11.

Entering Week 8, the Colts are one game ahead of both the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos for the No. 1 seed in the conference and 1.5 in front of Pittsburgh and the Buffalo Bills. Their schedule after their bye gets considerably more difficult, as they have two matchups with Jacksonville, visit the Kansas City Chiefs and Seattle Seahawks, and also face the San Francisco 49ers. In addition, they have a pair of meetings with the disappointing Houston Texans, who are 2-4 but are the two-time reigning AFC South champions.

The Colts own the best record in the NFL for the first time since finishing the 2009 season at 14-2 and are looking to become just the fourth team in the past 40 years to earn a No. 1 seed following a four-year playoff drought. Despite their tough schedule down the stretch, SportsLine’s Inside the Lines team and its projection model believe they will accomplish the feat.

The ITL team’s model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, feels Indianapolis will eclipse the 12-win mark for the first time since that 2009 campaign. It also says the club finishes atop the AFC in an overwhelming amount of its simulations.

According to the model, Denver has the best chance of overtaking the Colts for the No. 1 seed in the conference, even though it lost at Indianapolis in Week 2. The Broncos, who are one game ahead of both Kansas City and the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC West, are in the midst of a four-game winning streak thanks to their amazing fourth-quarter comeback against the Giants last week, and half of their final 10 games are against teams that are .500 or worse.

The model feels the Chiefs are a close second to the Broncos in terms of beating out Indianapolis for the top seed. Kansas City, which was No. 1 in the AFC three of the past five years, has won four of its last five contests after beginning the campaign with a pair of losses and also faces five opponents with non-winning records over its 10 remaining games.

The model’s current projections for Week 8 have the Broncos and Patriots defeating the Dallas Cowboys and Cleveland Browns, respectively, to extend their winning streaks to five games and improve to 6-2 overall. They also see the Chiefs topping the Washington Commanders for their third consecutive victory but have the heavily favored Colts knocking off the Titans to maintain their lead in the conference.

Indianapolis is a massive 14-point favorite in its matchup with Tennessee, which is coming off a 31-13 loss to New England. Four of the Titans’ last five defeats have been by 14 or more points, including a 41-20 setback against the Colts in Week 3, while four of the Colts’ six wins were by at least 14 points.

According to the model, Indianapolis completes its third consecutive sweep of a season series with Tennessee in 88% of its simulations. It is predicting a 36-17 victory for the Colts, who haven’t lost to the Titans since dropping a 19-10 decision in Week 7 of the 2022 campaign.