In the first of two “Monday Night Football” games, the Detroit Lions play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Detroit is coming off a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday night that snapped a four-game winning streak. The Lions enter this game at 4-2 now, and need to get back in the win column to compete in the races for the NFC North and seeding in the NFC playoffs in general.
Tampa won by a somewhat comfortable margin for the first time all year last week, defeating the 49ers by multiple scores. The Buccaneers are 5-1 and looking like one of the best teams in the NFC, but they’ve had to pull off a high-wire act to get to where they are. They’ve got a lead in the NFC South, but could drop back to the pack if they don’t pick up a victory here.
Will the Buccaneers continue to roll, or will the Lions get back in the win column? We’ll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here’s a look at how you can watch the game.
Where to watch Lions vs. Buccaneers live
- Date: Monday, Oct. 20 | Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Ford Field (Detroit)
- TV: ESPN | Stream: Fubo (try for free)
- Follow: CBS Sports App
- Odds: Lions -6, O/U 53.5 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bet Lions vs. Buccaneers and other NFL games at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets and three free months of NBA League Pass.
When the Buccaneers have the ball
Baker Mayfield is playing at an extraordinarily high level this season. He’s completed 66.2% of his passes at an average of 7.9 yards per attempt, with 12 touchdowns and just one interception. He’s done this despite playing without Chris Godwin for all but two games, without Mike Evans for three and without Emeka Egbuka for much of last week’s win over the 49ers. He’s also done it despite the Bucs shuffling their offensive line all year long.
Evans is expected to return for this game, while Egbuka is considered a game-time decision despite suffering a hamstring strain last week. Evans’ return is an especially welcome one for a game where the Lions will be without multiple defensive backs. Brian Branch was suspended for smacking JuJu Smith-Schuster last week, while Terrion Arnold, Avonte Maddox and Kerby Joseph are all out with injuries.
The only starting Lions defensive back who will be active for this game is Amik Robertson, and he’ll likely be playing out of position on the perimeter due to the other injuries. There should be chances for Evans to get open against the backup DBs, and for Egbuka to get going as well, if he plays. Detroit is 14th in EPA per dropback allowed to opponents, via Tru Media, but will be without 80% of the starting defensive backfield.
The best way to make up for the injuries on the back end is obviously to generate consistent pressure. The Lions have gotten to quarterbacks at just about an exactly league-average rate so far this season, while the Bucs have also allowed pressure at an average rate. The Lions have to be very careful about their rush lane integrity in this one, as Mayfield has been fantastic at escaping the rush and scrambling for first downs. Mayfield has 17 scrambles so far this year and is averaging 9.5 yards a pop, per Tru Media.
In the run game, it will again be Rachaad White filling in for Bucky Irving, who remains out with multiple injuries. White hasn’t been particularly efficient running the ball this year, averaging 4.0 yards per carry and just 3.4 per carry in his two starts. Detroit is 10th in yards allowed per carry this season, and has done an excellent job at limiting yards after contact (2.29 per rush compared with a league average of 3.00). White could find tough sledding here, putting some pressure on Mayfield and the passing game to carry the offense. That’s how the Bucs operate anyway, though, so they’ll likely be comfortable in a situation such as that.
When the Lions have the ball
Detroit’s offense has looked world-beating in four of its six games and rather ordinary in the other two. In Weeks 2 through 5, the Lions averaged 394.8 yards and 40.3 points per game, scoring 34 or more in each contest. In Weeks 1 and 6, though, they averaged 271.5 yards per game and scored just 30 points total.
The difference in the two poor games, perhaps unsurprisingly, is that they went down by multiple scores and had to rely on the straight dropback passing game rather than being able to mix run, pass and play action.
In Weeks 2 through 5, Jared Goff’s “true” dropback rate, according to Tru Media, was just 53.6%, which means that the Lions were running screens, play action or RPOs on more than 46% of their dropbacks. In Weeks 1 and 6, though, the true dropback rate spiked to 64.9%, indicating that they were only able to get to screens, play action or RPOs around 35% of the time. That’s equivalent to the difference between being exactly league average in true dropback rate and ranking second-to-last. The Lions want to live toward the lower end of the spectrum in that stat so that they can access the full breadth of their offense.
How they choose to attack this Tampa Bay defense will be interesting to watch. The Lions are typically an Establish the Run type of team, but Tampa ranks fifth-best in opponents’ rushing success rate allowed, via Tru Media, and just 25th in passing success rate. Opponents have completed 68.3% of their passes at an average of 7.6 yards per attempt, with 10 touchdowns against four interceptions against Tampa so far this year.
The Buccaneers have once again blitzed at one of the highest rates in the NFL, sending extra rushers on 35.3% of opponent dropbacks. Goff has torn apart blitzes this season, ranking first in the NFL in EPA per dropback while completing 37 of 48 passes for 495 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. It’s notable that last year, the Bucs dialed back their blitz rate considerably in their game against the Lions, sending pressure on just 26.8% of dropbacks. Goff threw for 307 yards in the game, but it took him 55 pass attempts to do so and he threw two interceptions.
Still, there should be opportunities in the underneath areas of the field for Amon-Ra St. Brown, given that we should expect Tampa to play a heavy dosage of zone defense against a team that tears apart man coverage. The Bucs have also given up an above-average rate of explosive passing plays, per Tru Media, so they’ll have to protect against the possibility of a deep ball to Jameson Williams over the top of the coverage.
Prediction
Tampa is 5-1 so far this season but has been walking a very tight rope. The Bucs’ five victories have come by a total of just 20 points, with four of those wins coming by a single score. If the Lions can keep Goff well protected, they should be able to move the ball here. And when they move the ball and therefore don’t have to play from multiple scores down, they come away with wins.
Pick: Lions 31, Buccaneers 23
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