It’s been an eventful week in State College, Pennsylvania, as James Franklin became the latest coaching casualty of the 2025 season. A third consecutive loss, this time at home to Northwestern, was enough for Penn State to bite the bullet on a roughly $50 million buyout and enter the coaching carousel.
In that loss, Penn State saw quarterback Drew Allar suffer a season-ending injury, adding to the turmoil for the Nittany Lions. Now, interim coach Terry Smith faces the unenviable task of getting Penn State back on course with the backup quarterback for a night game on the road in Kinnick Stadium, where the Iowa Hawkeyes will be waiting for them.
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Iowa is 2-1 in Big Ten play, most recently bludgeoning Wisconsin, 37-0. The only loss Iowa’s had in conference play was a 20-15 defeat to Indiana that is the closest game the Hoosiers have played all year. The Hawkeyes defense remains a stout group and they once again have found much of their success offensively leaning on the ground game.
This was a game that was always expected to be a tricky road test for a Penn State team with title aspirations, but it’s now a litmus test for whether they can salvage their season.
Where to watch Penn State vs. Iowa live
Date: Saturday, October 18 | Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Location: Kinnick Stadium — Iowa City, Iowa
Stream: Peacock
Penn State vs. Iowa: Need to know
Does Penn State have any fight left? The last three weeks have been brutal for the Nittany Lions. A gutting overtime loss to Oregon was followed by the two most embarrassing losses of the James Franklin era to a previously winless UCLA on the road and then Northwestern at home. Now that Franklin is gone, players an coaches have to be thinking about their future plans and considering options for 2026.
All of that can make it difficult to focus on the task at hand, which is facing a solid Iowa team in a difficult road environment. We’ve already seen this team fail to bounce back twice, and it’s fair to wonder if there’s any fight left in them to salvage this season. That’s the challenge facing Terry Smith in trying to lock in against Iowa. A win for Penn State keeps them afloat for a bit longer, but a loss would signal a complete derailment of their season.
Will Iowa need to throw the ball to have success against Penn State? The question for Iowa hasn’t changed in a decade, and despite another new QB in Mark Gronowski, the Iowa passing offense still has yet to take flight. That said, they might not need it against this Penn State defense that has been giving up chunk plays on the ground in their losses and are allowing opponents to average 144 yards per game rushing.
That’s a rather shocking number for a defense that was supposed to be a strength, and now they have to go up against an Iowa team averaging 187 yards per game on the ground this season. If Iowa is able to run the ball successfully from the start on Saturday, it will gladly dictate the pace and tempo of this game and grind Penn State down. Penn State is going to have to manufacture some success early on both sides of the ball to try and force Iowa out of its comfort zone at home, otherwise it will find itself trying to out-Iowa Iowa.
All eyes on Ethan Grunkemeyer: The Penn State backup quarterback will now be the starter for the remainder of the season, and he will be asked to wake up an offense that has failed to live up to expectations. A lot of those expectations were placed on Allar’s shoulders and he struggled under the weight of them. Now it’s Grunkemeyer’s turn to see if he can get the Nittany Lions out of second gear, but he’ll have to do so on the road against a defense that is perennially among the best in the nation.
I’d expect a fairly conservative, rushing-heavy approach from Penn State, but at some point if Penn State is going to win this game, Grunkemeyer is going to have to help them at least keep drives alive with his arm. He doesn’t need to be spectacular, but he needs to make good decisions with the football and make throws when needed to keep the sticks moving and keep Penn State on schedule. If he can do that, Penn State will be able to slug it out with Iowa in the mud, but if he turns it over, he will rev up that Hawkeye defense and crowd.
Penn State vs. Iowa prediction, pick
I think both teams will be playing this one desperately trying not to make a critical mistake. Iowa will be looking at a first-time starter on the road and thinking they just need to play good ol’ fashioned Ferentz-ball to get this win. Penn State will be trying to limit opportunities for takeaways and trying to run the ball themselves. That certainly seems like a recipe for a low-scoring affair — even understanding Penn State’s defense has been soft relative to expectation this season. On the field, I lean Iowa, but my pick would be the under even below 40 in a game that I just don’t see having a lot of possessions. Pick: Under 39.5
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