Prisco’s NFL picks, Week 7: Steelers beat Bengals, Bucs lose close one to Lions

The picks have leveled off some after a good start, which is never a good thing.

I went 6-9 against the spread last week and 9-6 straight up. That’s not good considering the first five weeks of the season had me nicely above .500 for both. 

The 6-9 ATS record felt a lot worse, too. It just wasn’t pretty. That brings my ATS record to 49-44 on the season — still above .500 in a tough year — and my straight-up record is now 66-26-1.

It’s not good. It’s not bad. It just is. 

So let’s hope the string of mediocrity changes this week. I do like the card, so let’s go.

Bet NFL Week 7 games and NFL odds at DraftKings, where new users who win a $5 wager get $300 in bonus bets and 3 free months of NBA League Pass: Click here to get started:

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. on Prime Video

This is a battle between two old quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco. But Rodgers is playing at a high level so far for the Steelers, while Flacco is making his second start for the Bengals. This one has the look of a lot of points, but I think it will be Rodgers who leads his team to most of those. Steelers take it. 

Pick: Steelers 33, Bengals 26 | Odds via BetMGM

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. on NFL Network (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Rams beat the Ravens last week, while the Jaguars lost to the Seahawks. The Seattle line sacked Trevor Lawrence seven times in that game. The Rams’ defensive front has to be licking its chops. The Los Angeles offense will be without Puka Nacua, its best receiver. That matters. The Jaguars will pull one out late. 

Pick: Jaguars 24, Rams 21 | Odds via BetMGM

Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Panthers head out on the road as favorites for the first time since 2022. The Jets are winless, so there’s the reason. They also haven’t played well. The Panthers are physical on both lines, but I think the Jets will be up to it. They will limit the run game and win with their defense.

Pick: Jets 20, Panthers 17 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Sunday, 1 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

The Chiefs are big favorites here for a reason. They are getting the offense cranked up and will have Rashee Rice back to add to it. The Raiders have defensive issues, which Patrick Mahomes will use to his advantage. Geno Smith won’t keep up and will continue to turn it over. Chiefs big. 

Pick: Chiefs 35, Raiders 20 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 bet:

Sunday, 1 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

This is the dog game of the day between two bottom feeders. The Browns haven’t done much on offense with Dillon Gabriel playing, but the Dolphins defense will be the perfect tonic. They can’t stop anybody. The Browns defense can. That’s the difference. 

Pick: Browns 26, Dolphins 23 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Sunday, 1 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

Former Titans coach Mike Vrabel takes his Patriots team to Nashville to play his old team. The Titans are reeling having fired coach Brian Callahan this week. They aren’t playing well, but New England is for sure. But this is a third straight road game for the Patriots. That’s tough. Titans will hang around as they get the interim-coach bump.

Pick: Patriots 23, Titans 19 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Bears are 3-2 coming off an impressive road victory against the Commanders. Caleb Williams is playing good football for Chicago. The Saints have hung around in games and Spencer Rattler is coming off a good game last week. But this will be the Bears pulling it out in the second half behind Williams. 

Pick: Bears 27, Saints 20 | Odds via BetMGM

Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Eagles have lost two straight and just don’t look right. The Vikings are coming off a bye, and might have quarterback J.J. McCarthy back. If not, it’s Carson Wentz. It doesn’t matter. This will come down to the Eagles getting Saquon Barkley going and he will run through the Vikings. Eagles will win a tight one. 

Pick: Eagles 24, Vikings 22 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook, where new users get 20 100% profit boosts with the code CBS20X:

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

This is an enormous game for these two, and especially a prove-it game for the Colts since they have played a softer schedule. They have been impressive, but this will be a challenge. I think the Chargers and Justin Herbert will be up to it. This will be fun to watch with a lot of points.

Pick: Chargers 34, Colts 27 | Odds via BetMGM

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

The Giants are rested after beating the Eagles last Thursday, while Denver is back from a trip overseas. Advantage, Giants. But this will be a tough test for Giants rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart. The Denver defense leads the NFL in sacks. That will be the difference as they speed him up and force turnovers. 

Pick: Broncos 28, Giants 16 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

There is a good chance this could be Jacoby Brissett starting again for the injured Kyler Murray at quarterback. Brissett played well last week in the loss to the Colts, but this Green Bay defense will be a tougher test. Look for the Green Bay offense to get it going in the passing game as well. Packers win it. 

Pick: Packers 31, Cardinals 23 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Washington Commanders (-1.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

Both of these teams are coming off tough losses, while the Commanders are playing on a short week out on the road. That’s tough to do. But the Dallas defense is so bad right now that it won’t matter. This will be a shootout, but the Commanders and Jayden Daniels will get the best of it against Dak Prescott. 

Pick: Commanders 34, Cowboys 30 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. on NBC (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Falcons are on a short week having played Monday, but the 49ers are so banged up. There is a chance Brock Purdy can be back after missing the past two games with a toe injury. That matters. The Falcons have a fierce pass rush these days, so that will challenge Kyle Shanahan to call a game to minimize it. I think he does, and the 49ers take advantage of a team on the road on a short week. 

Pick: 49ers 23, Falcons 19 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Monday, 7 p.m. ET on ABC (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

This is a big game in terms of NFC dominance. Both teams have a lot of injury issues, yet they have fought through them. The Bucs are the top seed right now in the NFC because of Baker Mayfield. With Jared Goff also rolling up big numbers, this has the look of a game with a lot of points. I see the Lions winning a close one.

Pick: Lions 35, Buccaneers 34 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Monday, 10 p.m. ET on ESPN (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Seahawks looked dominant in their win at Jacksonville last week, especially on defense. Quarterback Sam Darnold also continues to play well, but he will face a tough Houston defense. The Texans are off a bye, so they are rested. But I think this will come down to the Seattle front getting the best of the Houston offensive line. Poor C.J. Stroud. 

Pick: Seahawks 23, Texans 17 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook