The American League Division Series will be decided Friday night at T-Mobile Park when the Seattle Mariners host the Detroit Tigers for Game 5. The best-of-five series is tied 2-2 and the winner will advance to the Championship Series, where they’ll play the Toronto Blue Jays. The ALCS will begin Sunday night at Rogers Centre in Toronto.
“I actually think it’s good to be nervous. It’s good to be excited,” Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Thursday about Game 5. “… The 27 outs are going to be played. The game is going to come, and there’s going to be a lot of peaks and a few valleys for both teams, and things like that that you know are going to happen. But everybody on both sides are going to leave it on the field.”
This will be the fourth double-elimination game of the postseason, which is already one more than last postseason. There were three Game 3s in the Wild Card Series last week: Tigers over Cleveland Guardians, Chicago Cubs over San Diego Padres, and New York Yankees over Boston Red Sox. We’ll also have Game 5 between the Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers on Saturday.
Here is how you can watch Game 5 between the Mariners and Tigers:
Where to watch Game 5
Date: Friday, Oct. 10 | Time: 8:08 p.m. ET
Location: T-Mobile Park — Seattle
TV channel: Fox | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)
Probable pitchers: RHP George Kirby (SEA) vs. LHP Tarik Skubal (DET)
Odds: SEA +100 | DET -120 (via BetMGM)
One way or the other, a long ALCS drought will end Friday night. The Mariners have not played in the ALCS since their historic 116-win season in 2001. Their 24-year Championship Series drought is third longest in baseball behind the Pittsburgh Pirates (33 years) and Cincinnati Reds (30 years). The Tigers were last in the ALCS in 2013. That’s the 10th-longest Championship Series drought.
Here now is what you need to know going into Friday’s win or go home Game 5 for both the Mariners and Tigers.
How they got here
The series returns to Seattle after the two clubs split Games 1 and 2 at T-Mobile Park, and then split Games 3 and 4 at Comerica Park in Detroit. Here’s a quick recap of Games 1-4.
Game 1 (DET 3, SEA 2 in 11 innings): The two teams traded runs in the fourth, fifth, and sixth innings, then Zach McKinstry was the hero with his go-ahead single in the top of the 11th. Spencer Torkelson started the rally with a leadoff walk, then moved to second on a wild pitch. Seattle’s bullpen threw five hitless innings leading up to that final frame.
Game 2 (SEA 3, DET 2): Jorge Polanco took Skubal, the reigning AL Cy Young winner, deep twice, though Detroit rallied to tie the game on Torkelson’s two-run double in the eighth. In the bottom of the eighth, back-to-back doubles by Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez put the Mariners ahead for good. Skubal was great (two runs in seven innings), but it went as a loss for Detroit.
Game 3 (SEA 8, DET 4): This one was not as close as the final score indicates. The Tigers scored three runs in the bottom of the ninth to make things mildly interesting, though never did it feel like the Mariners were in real danger. Home runs by Eugenio Suárez (solo), JP Crawford (solo), and Raleigh (two-run) gave Seattle a comfortable lead. They were up 4-0 after four innings.
Game 4 (DET 9, SEA 3): After falling behind 3-0 in the fifth and generally looking lifeless, Detroit scored nine unanswered runs to win Game 4 and force Friday’s decisive Game 5. Seattle’s bullpen, which was so good in Games 1-3, was charged with seven runs in 3 ⅔ innings. No. 9 hitter Javier Báez went 2 for 4 with an RBI single, an RBI ground out, and a two-run homer.
Pitching plans
This is straightforward for the Tigers. They’ll ride Skubal as long as possible in Game 5. He was outstanding in his Wild Card Series start against the Guardians (14 strikeouts in 7 ⅔ innings) and very good in Game 2 (nine strikeouts and two runs in seven innings) despite Detroit’s loss. Skubal is the arguably the best pitcher in the game. The Tigers will take as much as he can give them.
The bullpen plan behind Skubal is pretty straightforward too. Lefty Tyler Holton has matched up with the lefty swinging Josh Naylor in his two ALDS appearances, so that’s his spot. Setup man Kyle Finnegan and closer Will Vest both pitched in Game 4 on Wednesday, but had two days off prior to that. Both are capable of going two full innings, if necessary.
In Detroit’s perfect world, Skubal will have the ball directly to Vest, if not finish the game himself (he has only one career complete game though). Holton and Finnegan are Plan A to fill in the gap between Skubal and Vest, with veteran changeup specialist Tommy Kahnle next in line on the trust tree. If anyone else is needed, either things are going poorly or Game 5 is in extra innings.
As for the Mariners, they will start Kirby over Luis Castillo even though Castillo was terrific to close out the regular season and threw 4 ⅔ shutout innings in Game 2. It was a bit of a grind though. Castillo walked four, strike out three, and threw 85 pitches. Kirby pitched well in Game 1, it should be noted. He held the Tigers to two runs in five innings on 94 pitches.
The Game 4 blowout meant closer Andrés Muñoz and setup man Matt Brash were not needed, and will go into Game 5 well-rested with two straight days off. Brash has not gone more than one inning at any point this year, his first year back from Tommy John surgery. Muñoz went two innings in Game 1 and could very well be asked to get four-plus outs again in Game 5.
Go-to lefty Gabe Speier allowed an inherited runner to score and was charged with two runs of his own in Game 4. Righty specialist Eduard Bazardo, pitching for the fourth time in five days, got tagged for three runs in Game 4. Those two have worked a lot in this series and fatigue may be setting in, plus there’s the reliever familiarity effect. The Tigers have that in their favor.
Seattle would love Kirby to get through six innings so they could then match up with Speier before handing the ball to Brash and Muñoz in the late innings. If they need Bazardo to get a righty out in a key spot, they’ll use him, but if it can be avoided, great. Castillo has never made a relief appearance in MLB. He’ll be on normal rest. Could he be an option at some point?
Matchups to watch
Polanco vs. Skubal: In Game 2, Polanco became the first player since 2021 to take Skubal deep twice in a game. That had more to do with Skubal leaving two mistakes in the middle of the plate than it did Polanco “owning” Skubal. The Game 2 homers were two of only three hits Polanco has against Skubal since Skubal went into Terminator mode last year.
Polanco’s had a quiet ALDS other than the two homers in Game 2 (0 for 12 in the other three games), but he finished the regular season very well, plus Game 2 showed he can put a mistake in the seats. The Skubal vs. Polanco matchup in Game 2 really just boils down to “don’t leave pitches in the middle of the zero again” for Skubal.
Speier vs. Kerry Carpenter: Game 1 might’ve been lost for the Mariners when, with a 1-0 lead in the fifth inning, manager Dan Wilson stuck with Kirby against Carpenter, who had an .812 OPS against righties during the regular season and a .638 OPS against lefties. Carpenter hit a two-run homer to give Detroit a 2-1 lead while Speier watched in the bullpen.
Wilson learned his lesson. Speier was so good during the regular season, holding lefties to a .179 batting average with 42 strikeouts and only two walks, and after the Game 1 snafu, Wilson used Speier against Carpenter in Game 2 (strikeout) and again in Game 4 (ground out). It is a near certainty we’ll see Speier vs. Carpenter in a big spot again in Game 5.
T-Mobile Park vs. Comerica Park: It is not a coincidence there were more than twice as many runs scored in Games 3 and 4 (24) than there were in Games 1 and 2 (10). T-Mobile Park in Seattle, which will host Game 5, is the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the big leagues, and not by a little. According to Statcast, it suppresses offense to 91% (!) of the league average.
Comerica Park in Detroit is hardly a hitter’s haven. It’s more or less a neutral ballpark, but compared to T-Mobile Park, it might as well be Coors Field. T-Mobile Park makes Raleigh’s 60-homer season even more impressive. He played half his games there! Given the ballpark and the fact Skubal will be on the mound, expect another low-scoring game Friday night.
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