Two teams heading in opposite directions square off when the Buffalo Bills face the Miami Dolphins in the Thursday Night Football game at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y.
The Bills (2-0) have been arguably the most impressive team in the NFL through two weeks with victories over the Ravens and Jets. Buffalo occupies the No. 1 spot in the SportsLine’s Inside the Lines team’s power rankings and according to the model, has a 26.2% chance to win the Super Bowl, the best of any team.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins (0-2) have lost their first two games to the Colts and Patriots by a combined 31 points. Only the Bears (-34) have a worse point differential than Miami after two games. Buffalo is a big 11.5-point favorite over the Dolphins.
The Bills will attempt to continue their recent dominance in the head-to-head series against Miami. Buffalo has won 13 of the last 14 meetings against the Dolphins. Bills quarterback Josh Allen is 13-2 in his career against Miami, and Buffalo coach Sean McDermott is 9-0 in his career at home against the Dolphins.
Allen and the Bills will go up against a Miami defense that been a little more than a rumor so far this season. The Dolphins have allowed opponents to score on 12 of 14 offensive drives this season, excluding two drives which ended with kneeldowns. Miami’s 66 points allowed are the second most in the league, better than only the Bears (79).
While the Bills-Dolphins game is the marquee attraction on the sporting landscape on Thursday, there are other viewing options on an 10-game MLB slate, Rice at Charlotte in college football and a two-game WNBA playoff schedule,
Below is a snapshot of what to watch and bet on Thursday, Sept. 18. All times Eastern.
NFL best bets, where to watch
Dolphins at Bills
Time: 8:15 p.m. | Location: Orchard Park, N.Y. | TV: Prime Video | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine picks — Model: Bills -11.5 | Expert: Josh Allen Over 26.5 total rushing yards -120 (Matt Severance)
What has been overlooked in the Bills’ hot start to the season has been the mediocre play of their defense. Buffalo is allowing 169 rushing yards per game, which is the second most in the league. On Thursday, the defense will be without at least two key players: linebacker Matt Milano (pectoral) and defensive tackle Ed Oliver (ankle). Linebacker Shaq Thompson also is questionable. Despite that, the ITL model says the Bills have a 57% chance to cover and assigns an “A” grade to Bills -11.5. The model also projects Allen to rush for 34 yards. “Miami held Josh Allen completely in check last year from a rushing perspective, but 26.5 yards seems awfully low,” Severance says.
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MLB best bets, where to watch
Cubs at Reds
Time: 7:15 p.m. | Location: Cincinnati | TV: FOX | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine picks — Model: Cubs +120 | Expert: Reds -128 (Matt Severance)
One night after clinching a playoff spot, the Chicago Cubs face the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park in the first game of a four-game series. Barring a collapse by the division-leading Brewers, the Cubs (88-64) are almost certain to be the No. 1 wild card team in the National League. On Thursday, they take on a Cincinnati club that’s fighting for its postseason life. The Reds (76-76) are just two games behind the Mets for the third and final wild card berth in the NL. The SportsLine Projection Model gives Chicago a 53% chance to win on Thursday and assigns a “B” grade to Cubs money line (+120). However, Severance notes Cincinnati starter Hunter Greene is 4-1 with a 1.69 ERA at home. “The Cubs were likely partying all night having clinched a playoff spot, and in reality they don’t have a lot to play for,” he says.
Yankees at Orioles
Time: 7:15 p.m. | Location: Baltimore | TV: FOX | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine picks — Model: Orioles +1.5 +108 | Expert: Aaron Judge Over 0.5 total home runs +240 (Jake Fetner)
The New York Yankees can move one step closer to a playoff spot when they start a four-game series against the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards. The Yankees (85-67) trail the Blue Jays by four games in the American League East but own a two-game lead in the wild card race. Meanwhile, the Orioles (72-80) have been eliminated from postseason contention. Thursday’s pitching matchup features New York’s Max Fried (17-5, 3.03 ERA) against Baltimore’s Cade Povich (3-7, 5.05 ERA). The ITL model says the Orioles have a 57% chance to cover on the run line and gives a “B” grade to Baltimore +1.5 (+108). Meanwhile, Fetner notes Judge is 2-for-6 in his career against Povich, and both hits were home runs. “Judge has a 1.263 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season, while Povich has allowed an .884 OPS and 13 home runs in 12 home starts,” Fetner says.
Giants at Dodgers
Time: 10:10 p.m. | Location: Los Angeles | TV: MLBN | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine picks — Model: Giants +141
The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants open a key four-game series on Thursday at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers (85-67) are just two games ahead of the Padres for the lead in the NL West. Meanwhile the Giants (76-76) are only two games behind the Mets for the final wild card spot in the NL. On Thursday, Yoshinobu Yamamoto (11-8, 2.66 ERA) will take the mound for Los Angeles against San Francisco’s Logan Webb (14-10, 3.34 ERA). The ITL model gives the Giants a 45% chance to win and assigns a “B” grade to the San Francisco money line (+141).
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College football best bets, where to watch
Rice at Charlotte
Time: 7:30 p.m. | Location: Charlotte | TV: ESPN | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine picks — Model: Rice -2.5 | Expert: Rice -2.5 (Gene Menez)
Two college football programs under first-year head coaches square off when the Rice Owls and Charlotte 49ers begin American Conference play at Jerry Richardson Stadium. Under Scott Abell, the Owls (2-1) have installed an option offense that has generated 243.3 rushing yards per game this season, which ranks 14th in the country. Meanwhile, the 49ers (1-2) are in their first year under Tim Albin. They are coming off their first win of the season, a 42-35 victory against FCS school Monmouth. The ITL model gives Rice a 60% chance to cover and assigns a “B” grade to Owls -2.5. Menez notes Rice already has won on the road this year against a Louisiana team that went 10-4 last season and went to a bowl game. “Most importantly, the 49ers have a short week to prepare for Rice’s option attack, which forces defenses to be assignment-sound,” he says.
WNBA best bets, where to watch
Fever at Dream
Time: 7:30 p.m. | Location: Atlanta | TV: ESPN2 | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine picks — Expert: Under 155.5 points -110 (Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai) and Kelsey Mitchell Under 2.5 threes -122 (Wetzel and Barzilai)
A spot in the WNBA semifinals will be on the line when the Atlanta Dream and Indiana Fever collide in a winner-take-all Game 3 at the Gateway Center. The Dream won Game 1 80-68 on Sunday after getting 20 points from both Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard. The Fever responded with a 77-60 victory in Game 2 behind 19 points from Kelsey Mitchell. Wetzel and Barzilai note that each of the first two games of the series has stayed Under 150 total points. “Now we get a winner-take-all game, which should only add to the defensive intensity and slow pace,” they say.
Storm at Aces
Time: 8:30 p.m. | Location: Las Vegas | TV: ESPN2 | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine picks — Expert: Dominique Malonga Over 6.5 rebounds -122 (Max Meyer), Malonga 8+ rebounds +146 (Meyer), Malonga 10+ rebounds +360 (Meyer), Malonga 10+ points +100 (Meyer), Malonga 15+ points +460 (Meyer)
The No. 2 seed Las Vegas Aces will try to avoid an early playoff exit when they host the Seattle Storm in a deciding Game 3 at Michelob ULTRA Arena. The Aces blew out the Storm 102-77 in Game 1, but Seattle responded with an 86-83 victory in Game 2. The loss ended Las Vegas’ 17-game winning streak. Meyer notes Malonga has grabbed at least seven rebounds in 11 of her past 12 games in which she’s played at least 17 minutes. “Malonga secured the go-ahead 3-point play with 31 seconds left, and her 6-foot-6 height and 7-foot-1 wingspan helped keep MVP frontrunner A’ja Wilson scoreless in that final 6:04,” he says.
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