A slow start in the NFL can quickly snowball into a lost season, and history isn’t kind to teams that stumble out of the gate. Since the league expanded the postseason field in 1990, fewer than 13% of clubs that start 0-2 have gone on to make the playoffs. Even with an extra game and two more playoff spots added, that number hasn’t budged. The margin for error is razor-thin, and for the 10 teams sitting at 0-2, Week 3 already feels like a crossroads.
Since 2020, when the playoff format expanded again — this time from 12 teams to 14 — the percentage of teams that make the postseason after a 0-2 start has stayed at 12.2%. By contrast, 2-0 teams qualify at a 78.6% clip. Basically, starting 0-2 is a death wish for a season. Hope is not lost in qualifying for the postseason, as the New York Giants won the Super Bowl after an 0-2 start in 2007, but it would take a lot to get back into the hunt and compete for a championship.
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What the 0-2 teams can’t do is start 0-3, or else they may have to start thinking about 2026 already. Teams that start 0-3 have just a 2.4% chance of making the postseason since 1990.
The 10 teams that currently sit at 0-2 badly need a win, but is it time to panic for some of these franchises? Let’s see how high the panic meter is for the 0-2 teams, ranking them based on their Week 3 opponents and their season outlook.
- Week 3 opponent: at Bills (TNF)
The Dolphins already have internal problems with their coach and have looked bad in both their games against opponents that were considered beatable. Now Miami heads to Buffalo for a Thursday night showdown against the hottest team in the NFL — a game the Dolphins have to have.
Josh Allen is 13-2 in his career against the Dolphins (including playoffs) and the Bills are 13-1 in their last 14 games against the Dolphins. Miami’s season is on the brink, as the Dolphins need a miracle to upset the Bills and get the season on the right track.
2. Giants
- Week 3 opponent: vs. Chiefs (SNF)
The 0-2 start by the Giants isn’t a surprise, but New York really needed to have a win against Dallas in Week 2 (the Giants took the Cowboys to overtime and were leading with under 40 seconds left). Now, the Giants finally play a home game — against an 0-2 Chiefs team that is also desperate for a win.
Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes need this one to get the Chiefs’ season back on track, and the Chiefs played well against the Eagles in Sunday’s loss. If New York doesn’t have Andrew Thomas at left tackle on Sunday, the Giants are in significant trouble against the Chiefs’ pass rush.
The Browns have struggled to put up points in their two losses, averaging just 16.5 points per game (ranked 27th in NFL) and 1.55 points per possession (28th). Joe Flacco has struggled to move the ball, and coach Kevin Stefanski has already had to answer questions about his starting job.
In comes the red-hot Packers defense, fresh off 10 days’ rest after shutting down the Lions and Commanders. Micah Parsons should be more acclimated to the defense as well. Sunday could be a long day in Cleveland.
The Saints might just be the worst team in the NFL, so it isn’t surprising to see them start 0-2. They played the Cardinals and 49ers tough at home, games they weren’t expected to win.
New Orleans doesn’t have playoff aspirations this year. Going to play in Seattle against a Seahawks team that took the 49ers to the brink and took care of the Steelers on the road is a tough challenge. Unless the offense (ranked 26th in points per game) can get going, winning in Seattle seems like a hill too tall to climb.
- Week 3 opponent: vs. Colts
The Titans weren’t supposed to win a lot of games either, so the 0-2 start wasn’t a shock to many. Tennessee also played two playoff teams from last season in Los Angeles and Denver, with a rookie quarterback.
In comes the Colts, who are looking to go 3-0 on the season. Daniel Jones also leads the league in yards per attempt (9.3) and is sixth in passer rating (111.1). The Colts are also first in points per possession (3.65) and yards per possession (52.4).
The Titans are dead last in the same categories (1.24 points per possession and 15.4 yards per possession). Hard to see Tennessee winning a shootout with Indianapolis if the game trends that direction.
The Jets had a dud in Week 2 against the Bills after nearly upsetting the Steelers at home in the season opener. Justin Fields looked awful against the Bills and is not available this week with a concussion, as Tyrod Taylor will be under center.
New York heads to Tampa Bay to play a Buccaneers team that’s riding high at 2-0, with both victories coming on the road. The Jets defense ranks 29th in points allowed per possession (2.91) and is facing a Buccaneers offense with playmakers across the board.
The Jets need a fast start, or Sunday could be a very long day.
The Panthers looked to be the worst team in the NFL before making Sunday’s loss to the Cardinals interesting in the fourth quarter. Carolina will look to build off that momentum in an NFC South showdown against Atlanta, a team the Panthers upset in Week 18 last year.
If the Panthers can stop the run, they have a chance. Carolina allowed an NFL-high 175.7 rushing yards per game since the start of the 2024 season, while Bijan Robinson averages 85.4 rushing yards per game (the fourth most amongst NFL running backs). This is a winnable game for Carolina.
- Week 3 opponent: vs. Cowboys
The Bears’ defense looked dreadful in Sunday’s loss to the Lions, and it doesn’t have cornerback Jaylon Johnson for an indefinite period of time. Chicago faces a Cowboys offense that has looked impressive through two games, fifth in the NFL in points per possession (3.05).
The Bears’ offense has been surprisingly poor through two games (27th in points per possession at 1.58), as Ben Johnson’s unit is still a work in progress. Based on how Dallas’ defense has played through two weeks, this is a game for Chicago to get on the right track.
The Texans played two good teams in their first two games, hence the 0-2 start. Sunday’s showdown against the Jaguars is a must-win game, especially since C.J. Stroud has been sacked 58 times since the start of the 2024 season and the offensive line isn’t any better.
Stroud and the Texans have fared well against the Jaguars of late, as the Texans quarterback has thrown for 292.8 yards per game with seven touchdowns to zero interceptions in his career against the Jaguars. Houston is 12-2 in its last 14 matchups against Jacksonville.
The Texans have started 0-2 before and made the playoffs, so they have been in this position. This is a game they should win.
10. Chiefs
- Week 3 opponent: at Giants (SNF)
Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are in unfamiliar territory as they have never started a season 0-2, and Mahomes has never lost three straight games as a starting quarterback until last Sunday — dating back to last year’s Super Bowl. The Chiefs opened the season in Brazil and then faced the Eagles at home, so their schedule hasn’t been easy, to say the least.
That should change on Sunday, against a Giants team that doesn’t match up to the Chiefs’ talent level. There is pressure on Kansas City to take care of business here, but this is the prototypical “get right game” for the Chiefs. The season should get back on track this week.
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