Ariana Grande Is Wicked’s Best Chance For An Acting Oscar, Based On This Impressive 4-Movie Trend Dating Back To 2002

The long-awaited Wicked adaptation is finally here – half of it, anyway – and it is poised to light up the box office and break into the awards race in a major way. Early signs point to massive success for the John M. Chu directed pic, which stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande as Elphaba and Glinda. Wicked‘s box office could very well hit the billion dollar mark by the end of its run and the film is also earning raves from critics and audiences.

Box office magic and positive critical reception is just what Wicked needs to make an impact and Universal Pictures is launching a robust campaign that will see the film compete in a slew of below-the-line categories, the place where it could find the most success. However, with Grande being campaigned in the Supporting Actress category despite the fact that she’s arguably a co-lead, Wicked could see its chances in that above-the-line category increase significantly.

Supporting Stars In Musicals Have Fared Better Than Their Leads

Four Have Won So Far This Century

No musical has won Best Picture since Chicago in 2002 and, despite a wide open race, it seems unlikely that Wicked could be the next. It’s only the first part of a two-part adaptation, so voters, whether consciously or not, will assume that they have the chance to honor the totality of the work in 2026 when Wicked Part 2 will compete. Of the musicals that have made an impression on awards voters this century, four have scored Best Supporting Actress trophies while largely missing out on the other categories:

Zeta-Jones was the only star of Chicago to receive an acting prize, though Renée Zellweger, Queen Latifah, and John C. Reilly were all nominated. Dreamgirls didn’t even score a Best Picture nomination, with Hudson and Eddie Murphy being the only two nominated in the above-the-line categories. Hugh Jackman was nominated alongside Hathaway for Les Misérables, which did earn a Best Picture nomination. Finally, DeBose’s trophy is the only one for Steven Spielberg’s 2021 remake of West Side Story, the same trophy Rita Moreno won for playing Anita in the original, Best Picture winning film.

The Chances Of Ariana Grande Winning An Oscar

Grande Does Have Some Direct Competition

Wicked isn’t the only musical competing this year, which makes things a bit more complicated. Netflix’s controversial Emilia Pérez hit the streamer after a lengthy festival run that positioned the film as a major contender. Zoe Saldaña will be campaigning for Supporting Actress for the film that also stars Karla Sofía Gascón and Selena Gomez. If Emilia Pérez can survive the discourse wars, it could very well be a major player when the Oscars eventually reveal the winners in March, though if Academy voters are swayed one way or another, Saldaña could edge out Grande purely because of the film’s festival bonafides.

Grande isn’t a significant competitor for Wicked quite yet and Saldaña is still the frontrunner in the category, but it’s entirely possible that Grande eclipses Saldaña somewhere along the way to the 2025 ceremony. With the Best Actress field particularly competitive this year, the pop star could be the film’s best shot at getting recognized for acting. There’s still a long way to go, though, and still many chances for the race to change once again.

Director

Jon M. Chu

Release Date

November 22, 2024

Studio(s)

Marc Platt Productions

Distributor(s)

Universal Pictures

Writers

Gregory Maguire , Winnie Holzman , Dana Fox , L. Frank Baum

Cast

Cynthia Erivo , Ariana Grande , Michelle Yeoh , Jeff Goldblum , Jonathan Bailey , Ethan Slater , Marissa Bode , Bowen Yang , Bronwyn James , Keala Settle , Peter Dinklage , Aaron Teoh , Grecia De la Paz , Colin Michael Carmichael , Adam James , Andy Nyman , Courtney Mae-Briggs , Sharon D. Clarke , Jenna Boyd

Character(s)

Elphaba Thropp , Glinda Upland , Madame Morrible , The Wizard , Fiyero Tigelaar , Boq , Nessarose Thropp , Pfannee , ShenShen , Miss Coddle , Doctor Dillamond (voice) , Avaric Tenmeadows , Gilligan , Professor Nikidik , Glinda’s Father , Governor Frexspar Thropp , Melena Thropp , The Midwife

Runtime

160 Minutes

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