Phillies vs. Reds prediction, odds, start time: 2025 MLB picks, best bets for August 11 by proven model

The Philadelphia Phillies will battle the Cincinnati Reds in a key National League matchup on Monday night. The Phillies are coming off a 4-2 win at Texas on Sunday, while Cincinnati downed Pittsburgh 14-8. The Phillies (68-49), who have won three in a row, are 31-28 on the road this season. The Reds (62-57), who have won two straight, are 33-26 on their home field in 2025.

First pitch from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is set for 6:10 p.m. ET. The Phillies have won three of the past four meetings with the Reds. Cincinnati is a -126 favorite on the money line (risk $126 to win $100) in the latest Phillies vs. Reds odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 9.5. Before making any Phillies vs. Reds picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model. New users can also target the DraftKings promo code, which offers $200 in bonus bets instantly plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 21 of the 2025 MLB season a profitable 31-23 on top-rated MLB money-line picks. It has excelled making home run prop picks this season, returning nearly 60 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.    

Now, the model has set its sights on Phillies vs. Reds and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Phillies vs. Reds, which you can get in on with a DraftKings promo code or a FanDuel promo code.

Why the Reds can win

Left-hander Andrew Abbott (8-2, 2.34 ERA) is expected to take the mound for Cincinnati. In 20 games, all starts, he has pitched in 115.1 innings, allowing 95 hits, 30 earned runs and 35 walks with 99 strikeouts. He is coming off a 6-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday. In 6.2 innings, he allowed seven hits, four earned runs and two walks with three strikeouts. In a 9-6 win over the Phillies on July 4, he received a no-decision, pitching 3.1 innings, allowing nine hits and four earned runs with two strikeouts.

Left fielder Gavin Lux is among Cincinnati’s top hitters. In 104 games, he is hitting .274 with 20 doubles, one triple, 42 RBI and 42 walks, while striking out 90. In Friday’s 3-2 loss to the Pirates, he was 3-for-4 with a double and two runs scored. In Thursday’s 7-0 loss at Pittsburgh, he was 3-for-4 with a double. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why the Phillies can win

Philadelphia is expected to start right-hander Taijuan Walker (4-5, 3.53 ERA). In 24 games, including 13 starts, he logged 79 innings, allowing 78 hits, 31 earned runs and 25 walks, while striking out 60. He earned the win in Tuesday’s 5-0 victory over the Baltimore Orioles. He pitched six innings, allowing just four hits, while striking out four. He received a no-decision in a 9-3 loss to the Chicago White Sox on July 30, allowing seven hits and two earned runs in five innings of work.

First baseman Bryce Harper helps lead the Philadelphia offense. In 89 games, he is batting .260 with 26 doubles, 17 homers, 49 RBI and 51 runs scored. He doubled and drove in a run in Sunday’s win over the Texas Rangers. He was 3-for-4 with a homer, two RBI and two runs scored in a 7-5 loss to the Detroit Tigers on Aug. 2. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

How to make Phillies vs. Reds picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 9.5 runs, and it says one side of the money line has all the value. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s MLB picks. 

So who wins Phillies vs. Reds, and which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.