SEC football picks, predictions: Value on LSU, Alabama and Georgia all missing College Football Playoff

The SEC has long been the top conference in college football and fielded three College Football Playoff teams last year: Georgia, Texas and Tennessee. Teams like Alabama and Ole Miss fell just short of making the 12-team field. Will one of those five teams top the SEC this year or are there any underdogs to keep in mind? Here, we break down the best college football futures bets for the SEC for the upcoming 2025 college football season. For all of my daily best bets, go to the Inside the Lines blog. You can also get all of the Week 1 college football odds.

SEC best futures bets 

Best win totals

Ole Miss Over 8.5 wins (-118, FanDuel)

We love Ole Miss’ schedule layout, which we think should get them to at least nine wins. We are buying into Austin Simmons’ limited action last year in which he completed 60% of his passes. It’s important to note that Simmons reclassified and should only be a true freshman this season, so getting experience, albeit limited, last season is important. While Ole Miss won’t be as talented as last year’s team, Lane Kiffin’s team might not need to be as talented in order to go further this season. Ole Miss gets LSU, Florida, and South Carolina at home. If the Rebels can win two out of three of those games, they should have no problem going Over this total. Bet on Ole Miss at FanDuel and get $150 in bonus bets:

Tennessee Under 8.5 wins (-135, Caesars)

Tennessee had an eventful offseason with quarterback Nico Iamaleava transferring to UCLA. While Tennessee has an incredibly easy non-conference schedule, which is why their line is at 8.5, going 9-3 with a brand-new starter that needs to learn a new system will not be an easy task. We would set the line right where it’s at, but this is a fade on a team that returns just 39% of its offensive production and lost it’s QB. Bet on Tennessee at Caesars and get 10 100% profit boost tokens:

Missouri Over 6.5 wins (-170, FanDuel)

Mizzou is at 7.5 juiced towards the Under, but we’ll play it say and play the juice at 6.5 wins. We have value either way, but this offers extra insurance, and we would probably wager more here to offset it. Missouri is coming off back-to-back 10-win seasons. The Tigers could be even better this season with Penn State transfer Beau Pribula at QB. Brady Cook was not at his best last year after dealing with injuries and Missouri was still able to get to 10 wins. Pribula is a bit of an unknown, but from the glimpses we saw at Penn State, he looks like an upgrade over a banged-up Cook. The Tigers did a good job of piecing together their needs through the transfer portal without doing a major rehaul. Missouri plays Alabama but avoids Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Georgia. The Tigers get Alabama as well as South Carolina and Texas A&M at home. With how the schedule plays out, it would be a big surprise if this team doesn’t win at least seven games.

Oklahoma Over 6.5 wins (-180, DraftKings)

We are buying into John Mateer turning the ship around for the Brent Venables-led Oklahoma Sooners. Bringing in the offensive coordinator and QB package has worked before. Washington State brought in Cam Ward and his OC Eric Morris, Western Kentucky brought in Bailey Zappe and his OC Zach Kittley and now Oklahoma brought in Mateer and his OC Ben Arbuckle, who interestingly enough was on both the WKU staff when Zappe was QB and the WSU staff with Ward. Oklahoma has a tough SEC schedule, but the Sooners have have wins in their first five games pretty much penciled in (Illinois State, Kent Stat and Temple). The big swing game is against Auburn, who we are not too high on. Auburn has Oklahoma QB transfer Jackson Arnold as its starter, and he was not able to sustain success during his time at OU. We also like the Sooners’ chances at home against Michigan, considering Michigan will likely be playing a true freshman at an SEC school in his first road start. Bet on Oklahoma at DraftKings and get $200 in bonus bets and over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket:

Auburn Under 7.5 wins (+140, Hard Rock)

The plus money sticks out here. Auburn has not had seven wins in any of its last five5 seasons, and you can get plus money that the Tigers get less than eight. Auburn has a good amount of returning production on both sides of the football, but the Tigers are rolling the dice that Arnold is going to be a much more consistent QB than he was at Oklahoma. The WR room is loaded, but it doesn’t matter if your QB can’t consistently get you the ball. Auburn has two big tests in its first four games against Baylor and Oklahoma on the road. If they lose one of those games, there is a solid chance that the under hits. 

Best bets to make playoffs

Ole Miss +194 to make the playoffs

Ole Miss’ odds to make the playoffs is almost right in line with their odds of winning 10+ games. We give the Rebels around a 40% chance of winning 10+ games, which in turn would put them in contention to get an auto-bid in the SEC Championship. Their total playoff percentage factoring their at-large and chances to win the conference is about 54% in our model. That’s excellent value at +194. Perhaps Austin Simmons is a bigger downgrade to Jaxson Dart than we think, but the schedule looks favorable and allows Simmons to get his feet wet against Kentucky and Arkansas compared to top-tier SEC teams. And if Ole Miss is undefeated at that point but and not looking as strong as you thought, there could be an opportunity to get out at that point. 

Texas A&M +235 to make the playoffs

Texas A&M has a unique blend of both returning production and talent. The Aggies rank seventh in the country in returning production with 72% from last season returning, and they rank fourth in Bud Elliott’s Blue Chip Ratio at 82%. It is important to note that this is Mike Elko’s second season at the helm and teams tend to make a big jump in Year 2 of a coach’s tenure. Marcel Reed struggled with consistency last season, but he was a freshman going through growing pains. Watch out for Texas A&M as a sleeper. 

The rest

Hot seats

Florida has a wide outcome of variations this season all hinging on the growth and health of DJ Lagway. We would lean Under 7.5 wins, which would likely lead to Billy Napier getting fired.

Arkansas is finishing 5-7 in our simulations, which would lead to Sam Pittman getting fired after he barely held on to his job after last season. Taylen Green could change that if he puts everything together this season. There are not many QBs built with his size and athleticism, but he needs to show more polish passing the ball, which he has struggled with since his time at Boise State. We’d stay off Arkansas’ line. 

Arch Mania

Texas’ odds to win the conference are incredibly high, which makes sense because sportsbooks know the Longhorns will still get action with the name brand. Still, we have fair value on Texas and wouldn’t bet against it.

LSU, Alabama and Georgia

We have all three of these teams as top-10 teams in our power rankings despite leaning Under on their win totals and odds to make the playoffs. With the SEC cannibalizing itself last year, there could be value on betting all three not to make the playoffs. Georgia and Alabama will have new QBs, while Brian Kelly hasn’t been able to get over the hump at LSU.