2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship props, expert picks, playoff predictions: PGA insider backing Daniel Berger

The 2025 FedEx Cup Playoffs begin this week with the first of three consecutive events to determine a champion. First up is the FedEx St. Jude Championship from TPC Southwind in Memphis, TN. Playing as a par 70 at slightly under 7,300 yards, players should expect plenty of heat and humidity which could lead to a winning score of between -15 and -20 under par.

A field of 69 players will tee it up this week with only Masters champion Rory McIlroy skipping this event among the top-70 in the FedExCup Standings. Only the top-50 will move on to next week’s BMW Championship in Maryland. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is a commanding favorite at +280 odds, followed by Xander Schauffele (+1600), Justin Thomas (+2200), and Tommy Fleetwood (+2500). Defending champion Hideki Matsuyama is +4000 (risk $100 to win $4,000). 

SportsLine golf expert Eric Cohen is calling for a strong performance from Hideki Matsuyama, predicting that the Japanese star hits the Top Asian bet at +150 odds (risk $100 to win $150). Before locking in any other 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship bets, you’ll want to see what prop bets Cohen is targeting leading into the tournament. Bet on the FedEx St. Jude Championship at DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets instantly + $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket with the latest DraftKings promo code:

Cohen, the host of Tuesday’s Early Wedge Best Bets Show on SportsLine’s YouTube, correctly identified Justin Thomas to win the 2025 RBC Heritage (+1800) and Ben Griffin (+4500 w/o Scheffler) to win the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge, as well as four winners last season. including Aaron Rai at this event (+3300 odds).

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Best prop bets for the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship:

• Top Asian: Hideki Matsuyama (+150)
• Top-10 Finish (with ties): Daniel Berger (+300)
• Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley & Ludvig Aberg all to Finish in the Top 20 (Incl. Ties) (+500)

Top Asian finisher: Hideki Matsuyama (+150)

I’m stunned that the defending champion of this event is +150 in a category with Si Woo Kim (+300), Sungjae Im (+320), and Kevin Yu (+360). What am I missing here? Kim enters off three straight missed cuts and has lost strokes putting to the field in eight straight events. Im has been particularly bad on approach, having not gained more than a stroke in that category since early-March. In fact, he’s only been positive with his irons in two of his last 17 events. Similar to his countryman Si Woo Kim, Yu hasn’t made a cut in his last three tournaments plus he’s brand new to TPC Southwind. With three straight top-20 finishes and now trying to defend his title at this event, Matsuyama is a confident play for me in this Top Asian category. Matsuyama gives us some value with this prop at plus-money at DraftKings, where new users can bet $5 and get $200 instantly as well as $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket via this DraftKings promo code.

Top-10 (with ties): Daniel Berger (+300)

Though Berger hasn’t been incredibly impressive of late, he’s the ultimate horse for the course at TPC Southwind. In five career starts here between 2016-2021, Berger’s finishes look like this: 1-1-MC-T2-T5. Due to injuries, he hasn’t played here in four years but I expect a return to form for the 32-year-old American. The key to his success here is on approach, where Berger has gained approximately 29 strokes in those five events combined. Similarly, he’s gained on approach in 11 of his last 12 events though his putter has been a disappointment since April. Sitting at 30th in the current FedEx Cup Standings, he needs to do work to secure himself a spot in the TOUR Championship in two weeks. I expect Berger to get it done this week with another high finish at a course where he thrives. bet365 Sportsbook offers new users the chance to bet $5 and get $150 instantly via this bet365 bonus code:

Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley & Ludvig Aberg all to Finish in the Top 20 (Incl. Ties) (+500)

Last week, my top-20 combo prop came through so let’s give it another try this week. Tommy Fleetwood has finished inside the top-20 in 10 of 17 worldwide events this season plus two of them where he finished T21. The Englishman finished T3 here two years ago and would’ve been higher than T22 last year if not for losing nearly six strokes putting. Ludvig Aberg was T40 here last year but enters in better form, having posted three top-20s in his last four non-major tournaments. I could see him making a giant improvement this season, especially if his ball striking continues to thrive for the seventh straight event. Russell Henley hasn’t played much over the last month, but enters this week with four straight top-10 finishes. The American was T6 here in 2023. Unlike a typical PGA Tour event, there are only 69 players in the field so these three will only half to beat about 2/3 of them to finish in the top-20 with ties. I found this top-20 combo prop in the Tourney Specials section at FanDuel Sportsbook, which is offering new users the chance to bet $5 and get $150 if their first bet wins with the latest FanDuel Sportsbook promo code:

More 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship picks

You’ve seen Cohen’s top props for this week’s event. Now, see the FedEx St. Jude Championship leaderboard, including forecasted finishes for Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, and Tommy Fleetwood. Visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 16 golf majors, including last week’s Open Championship, the last four Masters, the past two PGA Championships, and three majors in 2024 and 2025.

You can also view expert advice before locking in your PGA Tour picks. Cohen has also built a 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship parlay that would pay nearly $1.1 million on a $10 bet. Check it out here and view more PGA Tour advice at SportsLine.