There were only three baseball games on Thursday, but all 30 teams are in action during the Friday MLB schedule. The New York Yankees continue to play without superstar Aaron Judge (elbow), but they are heavy favorites against the Marlins on Friday. Jazz Chisholm is +475 to homer against his former team, and that is one of the MLB HR props that SportsLine’s model is targeting. Miami has a below-average bullpen, giving Chisholm an edge in his former park.
The model also likes White Sox outfielder Luis Robert to homer against the Angels at +440 odds. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest FanDuel promo code to receive $150 in bonus bets if their first wager of $5 or more wins, and take advantage of one of the top sportsbook promos:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 42.05 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season and has called two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Friday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.
Best MLB home run picks for Friday, August 1:
MLB Best Bets 8/1
For more real-time, free picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog
Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) +450, DraftKings
Soderstrom is typically a strong model play when facing right-handed pitching—he’s hit 18 of his 19 home runs against righties. He’s coming off a solid July, posting an .827 OPS with 5 HRs in 23 games. Anthony DeSclafani hasn’t allowed a home run in his last three starts, but he’s historically been prone to the long ball and doesn’t have favorable splits against left-handed hitters. We set Soderstrom’s line at +350 to homer.
Luis Robert Jr. (CHW) +440, FanDuel
Despite months of trade rumors, Robert stayed put in Chicago. The White Sox are likely hoping he can rebuild his value, and he’s trending in the right direction. He’s hitting .297 with a .990 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season and had a scorching July, batting .353 with a .990 OPS. Tyler Anderson hasn’t been sharp lately, and Robert is 2-for-5 with two doubles in his career against him. We set Robert’s line at +340 to homer.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) +475, BetMGM
This isn’t a high-value model play, but it’s a fun narrative matchup—Jazz is facing his former team, and Janson Junk, a former Yankees prospect, is facing his former organization too. Jazz is 1-for-1 in his career against Junk. While Junk has only allowed one home run all season, some of the value here comes from Jazz potentially facing the Marlins’ bullpen, which is slightly below league average. We set Jazz’s line at +455 to homer.
Where to bet MLB props on Friday
Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Friday:
More MLB picks for Friday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Friday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall, who is on a 70-62-1 roll (+1385) on MLB picks.
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