There are three games on the MLB schedule for Thursday with, Yankees vs. Rays at 1:05 p.m. ET, Reds vs. Braves at 7:10 p.m. ET, and then Mariners vs. Rangers at 9:40 p.m. ET. It’s Marcus Stroman vs. Ryan Pepiot in the early game, and the model has the Yankees winning in 53% of simulations. That matchup is a dead heat in the latest MLB odds, with New York and Tampa Bay both priced at -110.
The model is also strongly recommending Junior Caminero over 1.5 total bases, which pays out +135. Before making any MLB picks or building any MLB parlays, you’ll want to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model. Bet on every MLB game at DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get $150 in bonus bets instantly with the latest DraftKings promo code:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 19 of the 2025 MLB season a profitable 27-22 on top-rated MLB money-line picks. It has excelled in making home run prop picks this season, returning more than 40 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.
The model has broken down the MLB odds for Wednesday and just revealed its top MLB longshot picks. Combining the model’s three picks into an MLB parlay would result in a payout of +1113 (risk $100 to win $1,113). New users can even take advantage of the bet365 bonus code, which offers $150 in bonus bets with the placement of a $5+ bet. Click here to claim the offer:
Here are its best longshot bets for the MLB slate on Thursday:
- Yankees money line vs. Rays (-110)
- Junior Caminero over 1.5 total bases (+135)
- Matt Olson over 1.5 total bases (+110)
- Combine these picks for a shot at a +842 payout (odds subject to change)
Yankees money line vs. Rays (-110)
Pepiot has been good this season and Stroman has largely been injured, but he has been stretched out to 95 pitches now and has been strong in three of his last five starts. New York won the first two games of the series and is finally starting to show some signs of life, even without Aaron Judge (flexor strain) in the lineup. The Bronx Bombers have lived up to the name with two homers in each of their first two wins, and the model likes them to power their way to another victory on Thursday.
Junior Caminero over 1.5 total bases (+135)
Scouting can be hard at times, but when you see a guy with as much bat speed as Caminero, it’s pretty easy to understand why he was once a consensus top-five prospect in all of baseball. He launched his 27th homer of the season on Monday and has 47 extra-base hits on the season, and has recorded at least two total bases in 46 games. The model is predicting that he records two on average and is jumping at the chance to receive plus money here.
Matt Olson over 1.5 total bases (+110)
He’s sitting on 277 home runs 10 years into his MLB career and has recorded at least two total bases in seven of his last 13 games. He’ll face left-hander Andrew Abbott on Thursday, but the left-handed slugger has been relatively unbothered by left-handed pitching in his career. The model predicts that he finishes with 1.9 total bases on average and rates this play at 4.5 stars.
Want more MLB picks for today?
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You can also see today’s top MLB picks from expert Bruce Marshall, who’s on a sizzling 70-61-1 roll on his last 132 MLB picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who’s up nearly 15 units.
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